With 32 World Cup teams left, who has best route to final? Can Messi beat goal record? Day 17 recap
It’s day 17 of the World Cup and the group stage has come to an end.
Many of the biggest decisions were made before the day’s games, but there was still plenty up in the air.
Lionel Messi delivered again: he was rested by Argentina coach Lionel Scaloni, given they were assured of top spot in their group, but he came on and scored his sixth goal of the tournament in a 3-1 win over Jordan.
The other game in Group J ended in a mutually beneficial fashion, as Austria and Algeria went through as a result of their 3-3 draw, although that barely tells half the story.
A 2-2 draw was on the cards, before Riyad Mahrez put Algeria ahead in the 93rd minute: that would have put Austria out and given a late reprieve to Iran as one of the best third-place finishers, but they only had two minutes to enjoy their hope, before Austria conjured an equaliser to nip in front of them.
England took a while to get going, but they ensured a first-place finish in their group by beating Panama 2-0, thanks to second-half goals by Jude Bellingham and Harry Kane. Croatia beat Ghana 2-1 to go through in second place, but the Black Stars are into the knockouts as one of the best third-place finishers.
Colombia finished top of Group K after a thrilling 0-0 draw in Miami against Portugal, for whom Cristiano Ronaldo struggled again. DR Congo secured third place and a spot in the knockout rounds by coming from behind to beat Uzbekistan.
Matchday 17 results:
Group J: Algeria 3-3 Austria; Jordan 1-3 Argentina
Group K: DR Congo 3-1 Uzbekistan; Colombia 0-0 Portugal
Group L: Croatia 2-1 Ghana; Panama 0-2 England
Who has the best path to the World Cup final?
And so, the group stage is complete: 72 games played, 215 goals scored, and only 12 teams eliminated, which does feel like an awful lot of football to only cull a third of the participants.
But the bracket is pleasingly complete, and we can now plot paths through to the final for whatever team diverts us. So who has the ‘easiest’ route to glory?
The quick, partial answer is: nobody on the left side of the bracket.
That’s where all the strongest European sides, minus England, have ended up: France, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Germany, Croatia and Belgium. Throw in hosts USA and Canada, plus Morocco, and you’ve got a set of spicy ties.
If those bigger teams haven’t got a tough round-of-32 game, then their next knockout is likely to be. If things go to form, the round-of-16 games will be France vs Germany, Netherlands vs Canada, Portugal vs Spain and USA vs Belgium. Tough for them, great for us watching.
That said, there is a decent chance the USA could be in the quarter-finals: they should beat Bosnia & Herzegovina, then may face a Belgium side who aren’t what they were. Once you get there, anything can happen.
How far can the USMNT get? (Robert Gauthier / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images)
Things aren’t quite as tough on the other side, where the top south and central American sides have landed: Brazil, Argentina, Colombia and Mexico. But the general quality level is thinner, so whereas England would’ve probably had to get through Portugal and Spain to even reach the quarter-finals had they finished runners up in their group, they now get DR Congo before Mexico in the Azteca — which will be a test, but based purely on the quality of the teams, it’s preferable.
However, probably the ‘easiest’ path to the final belongs to Argentina. They face Cape Verde, the plucky underdogs who should nonetheless be swept aside, then Australia or Egypt, then potentially Colombia before probably England or Brazil in the semis.
This is all based on form and strength of the teams. There will be shocks. Underdogs will prevail. The World Cup always surprises us. But if you’re Argentina, looking at the bracket, you will probably be quietly confident of being the first team since Brazil in 1962 to defend the World Cup.
Could Lionel Messi break Just Fontaine’s World Cup record?
Speaking of a friendly run of games for Argentina, could that help one of the oldest records in football be broken?
It seems at this World Cup, you can’t even stop Messi scoring by leaving him out of the starting line-up.
Messi was given a rest by Scaloni for their game against Jordan, either to keep the great man ticking over before the knockout games, or just to give the thousands present in Dallas what they paid their money for, he came on for the last half an hour.
And after a sighter of a free-kick that went over the bar, he scored his sixth goal of the tournament with another, this time sending it low, around the wall and past Jordan goalkeeper Yazeed Abulaila.
Lionel Messi has scored six goals in this tournament (REUTERS/Hannah McKay)
This was, admittedly, not the most beautiful goal Messi will score, and Abulaila made it easy for him, but it does put him on a path to do something pretty extraordinary: something that hasn’t been done for 68 years.
Just Fontaine’s 13 goals at a World Cup, scored in 1958, has been one of those eternal records that you never thought would be broken. The overall quality of teams is too good these days, tactics too tight, defences too organised, for that level of scoring to be repeated. Fontaine scored consistently throughout that tournament, but he did pad out his numbers with four goals in a madcap third-place playoff against West Germany.
Only two other men have managed double figures at a World Cup: Sandor Kocsis with 11 in 1954, and Gerd Muller got ten in 1970, but Messi is on course to break that barrier. And who knows: he could break Fontaine’s record.
He has potentially five more games and needs eight goals to reach 14: it’s ambitious, to say the least, but the six goals he has would have been enough for at least a share of the Golden Boot at 12 previous World Cups.
It will take some effort for him to surpass Fontaine, but… would you bet against him?
The beauty of a 0-0
There’s a semi-legendary line, attributed to various people over the years but most frequently the Italian coach Annibale Frossi, that says the perfect football game should end 0-0, on the basis that it “is an expression of the balance between the attack and defence.”
A slightly less philosophical counterpoint was put forwards by Gerard Pique, who a few years ago suggested that it’s a bad thing if “you go to a football stadium, spend €100, €200 or €300, and the match ends 0-0… something needs to change. One proposal to consider would be that if the match ends 0-0, the teams would score zero points.”
The obvious counter to the economic argument is: don’t charge people €300, but we digress. There’s arguably no greater sensation in all of sport than the rush and exhilaration of a goal, whether it’s beautiful or ugly, for your team or in a game you don’t care about, scored by someone super famous or a complete unknown.
And yet, as the Colombia vs Portugal game in Miami showed, there is real beauty, suspense and excitement in a game that ends in both teams failing to do the thing they’re trying to do.
The idea that a game can even end in a draw is anathema to many American sports fans, let alone that a game could end in a goalless draw. But if you are of that mind, just watch back this game and appreciate the tension, skill and athleticism those teams showed, hammering each other back and forth for 90 minutes in the oppressive Florida heat.
Would it have been better had either team scored? Probably, but just because they didn’t, that doesn’t mean it wasn’t one of the best 0-0s you’re likely to see.
What to know about Sunday’s game
Look, we don’t want to alarm you, but after a little over two weeks of at least three or four games every day, regrettably, we have some bad news: on Sunday, there is only one game.
One! We should riot. This is a desert in the middle of an oasis, someone smashing our plate on the floor as we approach the all-you-can-eat buffet.
Still, it might be quite a good game, even if it’s one Canada were hoping they wouldn’t have to play: had they finished top of their group they would have remained at home for another round, a game against Algeria in Vancouver.
As it is, they must schlep to Los Angeles to play South Africa, but at least it wasn’t to play South Korea: given the size of the Korean population in LA, that would really have felt like an away tie.
Matchday 18 fixtures
Round of 32: South Africa vs Canada (3pm ET; 8pm BST)