World Cup predictions round of 32: Brazil vs Japan, Netherlands vs Morocco and rest of matchday 18 and 19
Welcome to The Athletic’s daily World Cup Predictions.
This article gives you the lowdown on all today’s games but with the bonus of some friendly competition…
Throughout the tournament, we will have two Athletic writers (Andy Jones or Elias Burke — with help from our experts from each of the 48 countries) pitting our soccer knowledge against a different Athletic subscriber each day and ‘Algo’, the shiny new algorithm from The Athletic, which is making its computerised debut during the 2026 World Cup.
Oh, and a dog called Stanley and a six-year-old called Wilfred (who some of you may remember from last season’s Premier League predictions).
Our guest subscriber today is Samer from France, who supports France, Lebanon and Real Madrid. Good luck, Samer!
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What happened on Matchday 17?
After England laboured to a 0-0 draw against Ghana in their second group game on Tuesday, Thomas Tuchel’s side needed to beat Panama to ensure they topped Group L and avoided an unwanted potential meeting with Colombia or Portugal in the round of 32.
The first half mirrored their Ghana struggles, but they found a breakthrough in the second half from a set piece, with Jude Bellingham turning in a Bukayo Saka corner. Five minutes later, Bellingham assisted Harry Kane to send England through to the knockouts as group winners and ensure a clean sweep of correct predictions for everyone at Predictions HQ.
But, true to form, the Algo picked the favourite in the other game in Group L while the rest of us saw Ghana getting at least a point, and it paid dividends. With Croatia winning 2-1, Algo closed the gap to us experts in first, who actually appreciate the sporting nature of a competitive draw.
Stanley’s backing of Uzbekistan against the Democratic Republic of Congo appeared something of a master-stroke, with the Central Asian side going ahead in the 10th minute, until a late flurry of goals from DR Congo saw them triumph 3-1, finish third in Group K and book a round of 32 meeting with England.
On the last day of this World Cup where there does not have to be a winner in matches, it was fitting that the Algo should lose out to two stalemates. First, in a tie that many expected to be the game of the group phase, Portugal drew 0-0 with Colombia. That result meant Colombia won Group K, setting up a potential semi-final meeting with champions Argentina.
In contrast, that result leaves Portugal with a daunting run to a first potential World Cup final, with Croatia and possibly Spain to come even before the quarter-finals. Credit to Stanley and young Wilfred, who both saw this coming.
Then, Algeria thought they had pinched the game against Austria, with a second-half stoppage-time goal from Riyad Mahrez to put the icing on the cake of what looked to be a 3-2 win, before former Wolverhampton Wanderers striker Sasa Kalajdzic scored an equaliser in the eighth minute of stoppage time. But the draw, which only Stanley predicted, proved to be a potential blessing in disguise for Algeria, as they will face Switzerland in the next round, while Austria must beat European champions Spain to go any further.
Argentina head coach Lionel Scaloni does not typically provide team news at press conferences ahead of games, but when asked by a 91-year-old journalist whether Lionel Messi would start against Jordan, he felt compelled to tell the truth, revealing that the 39-year-old deserved some rest. It was no Messi, no problem for Argentina, who led Jordan 2-1 before the great man entered the pitch in the second half and added another goal, his sixth of the tournament, to cap a 3-1 win.
With three from five, the experts continued our late surge to win the group stage on 47 points, one ahead of Algo, which assures us its hyper-logical (frankly, quite boring, if you ask us) method will prove itself in the end. But it will have to stave off young Wilfred, who, just two points off the top, will fancy his chances of humiliating the experts again, after finishing above resident English football expert Oliver Kay in the Premier League version. And readers, a five-point gap can swing quickly. All it takes is a streak.
How do the predictions work?
It’s pretty simple: we will give you some background on each game, players to watch and facts on the two teams. Then we will predict the outcome.
We will maintain a leaderboard of how everyone gets on with their predictions (ranked by the percentage they get correct) but we’ll also keep a record of “streaks” — the number of predictions everyone gets right in a row. These streaks also form a crucial part of The Athletic’s interactive Soccer Pick’ems feature, allowing you to make your own picks every round as well.
So come along and get involved, and check back each day to see how we are getting on in the leaderboard — and probably more importantly, whether you, the subscribers, or Stanley or Wilfred are beating us.
Or, worst of all, whether ‘Algo’ can prove data and statistics know all when it comes to predicting.
Good luck, and enjoy!
Why not try The Athletic’s World Cup Tracker, where you can find a forecast projecting the likelihood that each team will progress through each stage of the tournament, along with a bracket projecting the most likely round-of-32 matchups, current standings, and a bunch of other neat forecasts and scenarios.
Predictions for Matchdayd 18 and 19
South Africa vs Canada, round of 32, kick-off 3pm ET, 8pm BST
Where to watch: FS1 (U.S.), ITV (UK)
Streak Risk Factor: 4/5. Write off South Africa at your peril. They appeared to be out of the tournament after its opening match, yet they managed to finish second in their group. Canada won one, drew one and lost one of their group games, so are not easy to predict.
Watch Rating: 3/5. South Africa have not been particularly entertaining, but they have been effective in their past two matches. Canada have arguably been the opposite, entertaining yet not always effective with the chances they have created in the matches either side of the 6-0 win against 10-man Qatar.
The Athletic Soccer Experts say: “After the elation of their victory over Qatar, which sealed their passage into the last 32, Canada were brought back down to earth by Switzerland. That 2-1 defeat, which meant they finished second in the group, cost them a knockout tie in their home country.
Jesse Marsch has steered Canada into the knockouts (Sarah Stier – FIFA/FIFA via Getty Images)
“Jesse Marsch’s side have been an entertaining watch and have shown an ability to create in all three of their games, even if their finishing has let them down. The possibility of star man Alphonso Davies finally being available — he has been unused on the bench so far as he recovers from a hamstring injury — and able to play some part would be a huge boost. They will need to eliminate the defensive lapses, though, as South Africa have shown can capitalise on those.
“Our Canada reporter Josh Kloke says: ‘Canada’s chances against South Africa are entirely dependent on how decisive their attack is. Can the trio of Jonathan David, Cyle Larin and Tajon Buchanan not only create enough but also finish those chances? Outside of the Qatar demolishing, Canada has scored just two goals in two other games. Canada offer quality in attack that South Africa don’t, and they’ll need to make that count. My prediction is 1-0 to Canada.’
“South Africa progressing to the last 32 after the nightmare that was their first game, against Mexico in Mexico City to kick off this whole tournament, feels like nothing short of a miracle. A 2-0 defeat, two red cards and a demoralising performance, their World Cup looked over before it had even started.
“You have to credit head coach Hugo Broos and his players for the resilience they have shown to bounce back. They found something against the Czech Republic in the second half to draw, and then capitalised on a South Korea side who didn’t seem to know what to do, and won to seal qualification. They’re a threat on transition and it may be their best route to success again.”
The Athletic Soccer Experts: CANADA WIN
Guest subscriber Samer: CANADA WIN
Six-year-old Wilfred: CANADA WIN
Stanley the dog: CANADA WIN
Algo: CANADA WIN
Brazil vs Japan, round of 32, kick-off 1pm ET, 6pm BST
Where to watch: FOX (U.S.), ITV (UK)
Streak Risk Factor: 4/5. Brazil will go into this game as favourites but Japan are a well-equipped team and if Carlo Ancelotti’s side are not at the top of their game, they will come under threat.
Watch Rating: 5/5. This is the first really tasty tie of the knockout phase. Both teams want to play attacking, progressive football and will cause each other problems.
The Athletic Soccer Experts say: “There were understandable concerns about Brazil after their underwhelming 1-1 draw with Morocco in their opening game. In their two matches since, they have looked more cohesive and seem to be building confidence and momentum.
“Haiti and Scotland are a step down in quality from Morocco, but the tweaks head coach Ancelotti has made, including with his starting XI, have had a positive impact. Bringing Matheus Cunha into the side as the No 9 has worked perfectly — he has scored three goals in two starts — and it has helped unlock Vinicius Junior, who is in sensational form, scoring four goals in the group stage.
“Our reporter Jack Lang says: ‘Brazil clicked into gear against Scotland and confidence is growing. Japan are tricky opponents, to be sure, but I would expect them to sneak through.’
Daizen Maeda and Japan will need to be at their best to beat Brazil (Tullio Puglia – FIFA/FIFA via Getty Images)
“Japan arrived at this tournament as one of the ‘dark horses’ and they have made a habit of causing the elite teams real issues in this competition in recent times. They are a confident group who believe they can go far but those ambitions will be tested against Brazil.
”They are defined by their compact defensive structure but their cohesion and technical qualities in possession are still able to shine. Their goal against Sweden, scored by Daizen Maeda, was an excellent team move. While Brazil are still tinkering with their identity, Japan know theirs inside and out and, while they are missing some of their stars through injury, they have depth and players who can step up.”
The Athletic Soccer Experts: BRAZIL WIN
Guest subscriber Samer: BRAZIL WIN
Six-year-old Wilfred: BRAZIL WIN
Stanley the dog: BRAZIL WIN
Algo: BRAZIL WIN
Germany vs Paraguay, round of 32, kick-off 4:30pm ET, 9:30pm BST
Where to watch: FOX (U.S.), BBC (UK)
Streak Risk Factor: 2/5. This should be comfortable for Germany, but they have not been convincing in their past two games, especially the defeat by Ecuador when they named a strong line-up, so you never know. Paraguay have improved since their opening-match 4-1 defeat by the United States.
Watch Rating: 2/5. Germany should win here with little drama, but this World Cup has shown the underdogs can compete against the elite. It could be closer than the Germans may like.
The Athletic Soccer Experts say: “Germany had already qualified for the knockout stages – the first time they had done so since 2014 – before their game against Ecuador, but the 2-1 loss brought to the table some of the issues that had threatened to rear their head in the previous match against Ivory Coast. Julien Nagelsmann’s side have played well in patches at this tournament, but there are also periods in games where they have been unconvincing.
“The optimism after the opening 7-1 win against Curacao has eroded and there are question marks across the pitch about the form of individuals, which is always going to affect the collective. They have been slightly fortunate to receive a favourable round of 32 tie and they will hope that now the competition has moved into win-or-go-home football, this can help them start building momentum again.
“Our German football correspondent Seb Stafford-Bloor outlined the concerns after a strange group stage. He said: ‘There’s a lot of trepidation now. The Ivory Coast win had plenty of issues, but the defeat by Ecuador showed just what a flawed side Germany can be; porous in defence and unable to create enough chances in attack. The injury to Nico Schlotterbeck, by far Julian Nagelsmann’s best passer out of defence, has also damaged Germany’s build-up, as well as further unbalancing that fragile defence. They must improve, collectively and individually.’
Paraguay beat Turkey 1-0 in the group stage (Richard Heathcote/Getty Images)
“This looks an uphill challenge for Paraguay, but given how their tournament started — that demoralising 4-1 defeat by the United States – it has been that way ever since. They bounced back to get four points and qualify as one of the eight best third-placed teams but they have yet to face opposition at the level Germany can reach.
“Miguel Almiron returns from suspension, after serving a one-match ban after being sent off for covering his mouth in a confrontation with an opponent. His team-mates had to then defend a 1-0 lead for the second half of that match against Turkey and showed plenty of resilience to do so. They followed that up with another clean sheet, against Australia, and that solidity will be required in abundance in this game.”
The Athletic Soccer Experts: GERMANY WIN
Guest subscriber Samer: GERMANY WIN
Six-year-old Wilfred: GERMANY WIN
Stanley the dog: GERMANY WIN
Algo: GERMANY WIN
Netherlands vs Morocco, round of 32, kick-off 9pm ET, 2am BST
Where to watch: FOX (U.S.), ITV (UK)
Streak Risk Factor: 5/5. This should be a terrific tie between two teams who showed plenty of quality in the group stages and have match-winners in their teams.
Watch Rating: 5/5. This has the potential to be box-office and is arguably the tie of the round. The Netherlands are scoring for fun but Morocco have shown an ability to capitalise when on top and manage a game from there. Both like a fast start, so don’t turn it on too late.
The Athletic Soccer Experts say: “After a relatively unconvincing start to the tournament against Japan, the Netherlands have looked more like themselves in 5-1 and 3-1 wins over Sweden and Tunisia respectively. Morocco, though, will provide a sterner test.
“Brian Brobbey has been a revelation since Ronald Koeman inserted him into the starting XI against Sweden. He has three goals in two games and has left many more bruises on the centre-backs he has come up against. He has given the Dutch team a focal point, which has allowed those around him to flourish.
Everybody’s loving Brian Brobbey at the World Cup (Molly Darlington/Getty Images)
“Morocco sealed second place in Group C with an entertaining 4-2 victory against Haiti, a game that proved to be harder than expected, given their opponents had already been eliminated from the tournament. We saw a different side to them as they had 69 per cent possession and remained patient and used their bench to overcome the challenge. They’ve got the tools to be competitive against anyone.
“Ismael Saibari has been Morocco’s Mr Reliable, becoming the first African player to score in each of his side’s three group games at a single World Cup. Behind him, Brahim Diaz has been a constant creative threat and Achraf Hakimi will always cause opposition problems because of his speed and licence to get forward.
“Be prepared for a fast opening. Morocco (against Brazil and Scotland) and the Netherlands (against Sweden and Tunisia) have made electric starts and taken the lead, with their opponents unable to match their intensity.”
The Athletic Soccer Experts: NETHERLANDS WIN
Guest subscriber Samer: MOROCCO WIN
Six-year-old Wilfred: NETHERLANDS WIN
Stanley the dog: NETHERLANDS WIN
Algo: NETHERLANDS WIN