Rockets mailbag: Should Houston enter the Giannis Antetokounmpo market?

Based on NBA history, it seems only a matter of time before the New York Knicks are crowned the 2025-26 champions. Once that chapter comes to an end, it’s time for the fun to start for everyone else around the league.

Other than the two teams battling in the finals, the rest of the NBA is immersed in the behind-the-scenes work that goes into the draft, the trade market and free agency. Rockets general manager Rafael Stone didn’t sound like he had much of an appetite for major changes when he spoke about his offseason plans following Houston’s first-round playoff exit. But things change quickly once transaction season begins.

This seems like a great time to dig into the mailbag and see how Rockets fans are feeling heading into a summer that could take the team in several directions. Let’s get it started:

(Questions have been lightly edited for brevity.)

This team is not winning a Larry OB as constructed. Not with San Antonio and OKC in this conference. In my opinion, the front office should either trade Şengün and others/picks (only Amen is untouchable) for Giannis and team him up with KD or blow it up again (trade Şengün, Jabari, KD for picks and start over). I don’t think it’s unreasonable in light of what we just saw in the Western Conference Finals. Buying or selling this take? — Kuji S.

We’re coming in hot to start this one off!

First off, I don’t think there’s any chance we’ll see the Rockets go into a full fire sale after back-to-back 50-win seasons with three 23-year-olds among their five best players.

There are some major questions for the front office to answer, but Houston has more than enough talent to contend again next year. If the Rockets bring back the same roster, they’ll be right back in the mix among the five best teams in the West.

Now, I do think it’s fair to say that Houston has a lot of work to do to catch up with the Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs. Those teams are clearly head and shoulders above the rest of the conference. But that doesn’t mean the Rockets have already failed in building this group.

Just look at the Knicks in the finals. There’s value in sticking with a group that has gone through some postseason ups and downs in the playoffs. That continuity should be an advantage going forward after a full season of figuring out how to play around Kevin Durant.

And that’s partly why I’m not a fan of starting over again with a massive trade that would send Alperen Şengün out and bring Giannis Antetokounmpo to Houston.

No one can question how special Antetokounmpo is on both ends of the floor when he’s healthy. It would be fascinating to see defenses try to defend him and Durant at the same time.

But considering the financial burden — Antetokounmpo could be eligible for a four-year, $275 million extension as of Oct. 1 — and the long list of lower-leg injuries that have sidelined him in recent years, along with the current core’s potential, I’m fine with Houston’s apparent caution around pursuing the Bucks superstar.

I think it makes more sense for the Rockets to take another year to track the growth of Şengün, Amen Thompson, Jabari Smith Jr. and Reed Sheppard. That group already has two playoff appearances together, and there are signs that some of those guys can reach a higher level.

There are also the spacing concerns that would come with playing Antetokounmpo and Thompson on the floor together, finding a starting center if the Rockets trade Şengün, and how long it would take the Giannis-KD duo to develop strong enough chemistry to compete at the top of the West.

With their combination of young players and draft picks, the Rockets should be contenders to land any big-name, disgruntled superstar who decides he’s ready to make a move. Right now, though, I think it would make more sense for Houston to exercise patience.

Which Rockets are leaving or should be leaving this offseason? – Ed H.

The unrestricted free agents from last year’s squad include Jeff Green, Aaron Holiday, Jae’Sean Tate, and Josh Okogie. We’ll get to restricted free agent Tari Eason later.

But each of those unrestricted free agents was on a minimum-salary contract, and I’d expect Houston to again fill out the back end of its roster with experienced guys on minimum deals.

If I had to pick one, I’d say that Houston should bring back Okogie if the franchise can re-sign him on similar terms. He started 32 games last season and fit in well as a physical defender and a guard who doesn’t mind getting on the boards.

Green’s veteran presence is valuable, but it’s unclear if he wants to come back for one more year. It wouldn’t be a major shock, though, if the team decided to fill his spot with someone more capable of playing consistent minutes.

Holiday and Tate were decent when they were in the rotation, but it might make more sense to pursue other minimum-salary players who clearly address the team’s needs for ballhandling and outside shooting. However, both fit in well with the culture in Houston, so I’d expect them to be in the mix.

As far as Eason goes, Stone has spoken highly about the young forward’s potential and his fit with the Rockets’ rugged, defensive identity. It will cost a pretty penny to keep Eason around, though. He reportedly turned down a deal that was potentially worth $100 million last offseason, and while his struggles in 2025-26 might prevent him from getting another offer that large, he’s still highly valued around the league.

Even if Houston doesn’t see Eason as part of its future, it makes sense from an asset-management standpoint to retain him on a manageable deal that could be moved down the line. Think about how the Rockets handled Jalen Green a few summers ago.

It will be interesting to see if there are other opportunities out there for Eason, or if the Rockets explore sign-and-trade scenarios to swap Eason for a player who better fits their needs.

Regardless, if the Rockets do become active on the trade market, the two names I’d be circling are Clint Capela and Dorian Finney-Smith. Finney-Smith is due just over $13.3 million next season, while Capela is owed $7 million. Those are the kinds of deals teams are looking for in salary-matching scenarios. The question is how much draft capital will potential trade partners ask for in return for taking on those contracts.

Can we expect the Rockets to trade into the draft or make a trade during the draft? – Edgar D.

As of now, the Rockets own picks Nos. 39 and 53 in the upcoming draft. Maybe they look for a way to sneak into the back end of the first round, but that’s about as far as I see them going. I’d be surprised if they’re willing to give up the capital required to move into the lottery, even though this draft is loaded with talented point guards.

The Rockets picked Sheppard third two summers ago, and they remain high on his potential as a lead guard, despite some of his rocky moments in the playoffs. Sheppard has also shown he can be an elite shooter who fits next to Thompson.

It probably makes sense to use at least one of those second-round picks to stash a cheap, young player on the back end of the roster. Considering how all-in the Rockets will be next season, I don’t think coach Ime Udoka will have much patience for watching another rookie go through some of the growing pains Sheppard and Thompson have experienced. Any player they draft will have a lot of work to do to earn a spot in the rotation.

Using this year’s second-round picks to grab future assets that could help acquire a potential superstar down the road makes a lot of sense. Then again, some older prospects who are expected to be available in the second round should be ready to contribute right away.

A few names I have circled are Purdue point guard Braden Smith, UConn forward Alex Karaban, BYU guard Richie Saunders and Houston guard Emanuel Sharp.

Are we going to acquire an actual point guard besides Fred VanVleet? We can’t go back and select Castle over Sheppard, but we have to have another true point guard because VanVleet is older and could get reinjured, and this team was pathetic offensively without one. – Todd L.

As I mentioned earlier, the Rockets could make a few moves to shake up the back end of the roster. If I were targeting free-agent point guards who could be signed for the minimum, here are a few names I’d keep an eye on:

• Keon Ellis (26 years old): Ellis fell out of the rotation after being traded to the Cleveland Cavaliers around this season’s trade deadline, but he’s a young player who will generate some interest in free agency. My bet is he gets more than a minimum deal, but he’d be an amazing fit in Houston for the right price.
• Gabe Vincent (turns 30 on June 14): Not exactly the most exciting name after his time with the Los Angeles Lakers turned out to be such a disappointment. But he knows how to play his role and he can make open threes.
• De’Anthony Melton (28 years old): Melton could probably make more money if he sticks with the Warriors, but when healthy, he’s a veteran presence who can shoot from the perimeter at a high level.
• Jose Alvarado (28 years old): If the Knicks’ Alvarado hits the market, his energy on the court and his presence in the locker room would be an excellent fit in Houston.