Answering crucial fantasy football draft questions at quarterback

Our first fantasy football roundtable of the summer will spotlight the QB position. For this exercise, we have enlisted a standout crew of contributors to The Athletic fantasy football, including Jake Ciely, Andy Behrens, Dalton Del Don, Brad Evans, Michael Salfino, Jess Bryant and Brandon Funston.

Who is the draft’s biggest wild-card QB selection? Which backup QB would you eagerly hit the waiver wire for if you knew they were slated to start a few upcoming games? Read on for our answers to these questions, and stay tuned in later this week for our running back, wide receiver and tight end roundtables!

Note: All Average Draft Position (ADP) references below are from Fantasy Pros’ real-time ADP.

In a 1QB format, who is your favorite quarterback value based on ADP?

Ciely: Early, it’s Trevor Lawrence. We’ve been waiting for the Clemson-era boss mode version to fully unlock, and the Liam Coen offense is the perfect match. If I miss on Lawrence, I’m mashing the draft button on Malik Willis as my endgame strategy. Willis packs the upside for 800+ rushing yards. That kind of cheat-code mobility single-handedly gives him a top-10 ceiling, even if he posts a something like a Daniel Jones 2022 passing line (go ahead, look up the numbers).

Behrens: You simply can’t find anyone who believes the Rams offense will faceplant this season, yet we’re treating Matthew Stafford as an afterthought in drafts (QB15). His ceiling as a passer is as high as any quarterback, a fact he just demonstrated while winning the MVP. It makes no sense at all to be bullish on, say, Joe Burrow, but out on Stafford.

Del Don: Brock Purdy has been my most drafted quarterback so far. He ranks third (behind only Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson) in fantasy points per opportunity, and is fifth in fantasy points per game, over the past three seasons, yet he’s going outside the top 12 at his position.

Evans: Going well into the 100s per ADP, Baker Mayfield is worth the minimum stake. After a contract dissing, he’s extremely motivated to prove doubters wrong. Projecting a final line in the neighborhood of 30 pass TDs and 4,000 pass yards along with 350-plus rush yards isn’t the rum talking — especially if Vita Vea is dealt.

Salfino: I’m going with Jared Goff since floor is most important at QB and that means touchdown passes and passing yards (running is generally random). Goff leads all QBs in TD passes and yards pretty much however you slice things. Plus, he’s easy to stack with higher-drafted Lions.

Bryant: I like Stafford in the 10th round. The QB3 last year, he’s unlikely to throw the same number of touchdown passes (46), but he threw for 2.41 per game in 2021, so 2025 wasn’t a “one off.” Stafford’s probably more likely to finish top-seven than top-three (though I’m not ruling it out), but he’s being drafted as the 15th QB off the board.

Funston: Purdy, going as the No. 12 QB, is a good example for why you wait on the position in 1QB drafts. San Francisco has ranked in the top seven in QB fantasy points each of the past three seasons, and Purdy is No. 6 among QBs in fantasy points per game in that span.

In a Superflex format, who are you most likely to come away with as your second QB?

Ciely: There’s no single “default player.” It’s about reacting to your QB1. If I grab an S-Tier QB early, I’m locking in another guy inside my top-15 so I don’t burn my competitive edge. If you draft a bargain-bin QB2 instead, you throw away your advantage while compounding the issue by losing value at another position.

Behrens: The price tag on Daniel Jones hasn’t quite caught up with the reporting on his recovery from Achilles surgery. He gave us the best half-season of his career in 2025 before injuries derailed one of the NFL’s most surprising and delightful stories. Jones pretty clearly offers top-10 upside at a bottom-10 price.

Del Don: Tyler Shough is a dual threat who plays indoors and will benefit from Kellen Moore’s system and one of the league’s easiest schedules (with 10 dome games) this season. Shough has a good chance of finishing as a QB1 while being drafted as the QB20. He’s the perfect target in SuperFlex leagues.

Evans: Unable to escape my toxic fantasy relationship with Bryce Young, I remain stupidly committed to the inconsistent passer. As his positive trending completion percentage and red-zone accuracy show, he’s quietly made progress. Another year with Tetairoa McMillan and given the likely Jalen Coker jump, Young should take another step forward. My body is prepared for the hurt.

Salfino: Someone I don’t have to fight for and who gives me more of a ceiling than my starter. Let’s say Malik Willis.

Bryant: I’m taking Shough as my second quarterback and trying for Jones as my third, given I landed a top-six QB. Shough scored at least 17 points from Week 13 on, with three +20 performances. In Weeks 1-11, Jones averaged 19.3 points and topped 20 points on five occasions. 

Funston: Sam Darnold. For my second QB, I’m just looking for safe and serviceable. Darnold fits that bill, and Jared Goff and Baker Mayfield would be the luxe version of this.

Ciely: Goff, mainly because he relies entirely on his arm, like playing Madden on All-Madden without a sprint button. You could make a similar case for Stafford, but bet on a random non-injury regression at your own risk. Goff already finished outside the QB1 tier on a per-game basis despite dropping 4,564 passing yards and 34 TDs. That’s a razor-thin margin for error.

Behrens: Among the uni-threat quarterbacks who finished inside the top 10 last season, Goff probably has the lowest ceiling as a passer. I’m not running away from him, just to be clear, but I also don’t think he’s a legitimate difference-maker.

Del Don: Stafford and Goff are the top candidates because neither have a rushing floor. Stafford is also 38 years old, still has a herniated disc issue in his back and is due for major touchdown regression in 2026. Stafford (QB15) and Goff (QB16) both have ADPs reflecting this.

Evans: Trevor Lawrence is the siren song of QBs. Make a swim for the island of alluring beauties and your league existence will soon expire. Liam Coen is an offensive mastermind, but the former No. 1 overall pick’s rushing production from last season (359 yards, nine TDs) is bound to regress. His ranking outside the top 30 in four different completion percentage categories last year only raises the potential chill.

Salfino: Lawrence, because rushing TDs are a fluke until proven otherwise, and he made a living off of rushing TDs and yards in 2025. Lawrence led the NFL with four rushing TDs on scrambles. That’s probably 1-2 this year. His five by design will probably be 2-3.

Bryant: Bo Nix. He had 612 pass attempts (only 6.4 yards per attempt) in 2025 to get to top-10 territory. His rushing yards offer him more protection than Jared Goff or Matthew Stafford, but Denver’s QB broke his ankle in January of this year. While he’s technically fully recovered, I’m avoiding Nix because he needs high volume and the same amount of rushing yards or more to repeat a top-10 finish.

Funston: Nix. Jess (above) hit on most of the things I would mention in choosing Nix. I’d also point out, despite leading the NFL in pass attempts and ranking fifth in QB rush attempts, he had just five top-10 finishes in 2025, compared to nine finishes of QB15 or worse.

Who is the biggest risk/reward QB pick for this season?

Ciely: Two names jump out with serious Mortal Kombat “Finish Him!” energy: Jaxson Dart and Malik Willis. Dart dropped 20 fantasy points per game in his starts — pushing for a top-five finish in any season — but new scheme adjustments, his passing concerns, and/or injuries give him a disastrous floor. Meanwhile, Willis has elite rushing upside. If he’s simply a mediocre passer, his legs alone lock him into a top-10 floor.

Behrens: It’s not difficult to imagine a season in which Dart routinely produces 20-plus point performances, boosted by his recklessly bold rushing style. It’s also not too difficult to imagine Dart playing his way off the field if he hasn’t made progress as a passer. Fortunately, in 1QB leagues, there’s rarely a penalty for taking big swings at this position.

Del Don: Jayden Daniels clearly enters with elevated injury risk, which was further escalated by LT Laremy Tunsil’s serious injury. However, he also has the upside to finish as fantasy’s QB1. Daniels leads all quarterbacks in rush attempts and yards per game since entering the league despite playing through multiple leg injuries last year. He’ll benefit from the addition of Stefon Diggs and a revamped scheme in Washington, including more snaps under center.

Evans: As discussed in my ‘Whatever it Takes’ team piece, Daniels’ duality, added weapons, favorable schedule and Washington’s leaky defense suggest a stratospheric ceiling. However, given the blind side issues and Daniels’ well-documented fragility, the menacing injury imp lurks.

Salfino: Kyler Murray. He’s not very good, but he’s been a good fantasy scorer. However, the Vikings have no investment in him beyond this year. So he’s going to have to produce. Maybe they haven’t given up on J.J. McCarthy. Maybe Murray struggles and Carson Wentz plays. Or maybe, and this is most likely, Murray just gets hurt.

Bryant: At his cost, Drake Maye, though I’m still drafting him. His rushing floor and ceiling aren’t that of the other top-six QBs, excluding Joe Burrow. The reward is a QB1 finish if he continues to have success rushing (450 yards, four rushing TDs in 2025) despite a potentially low Designed Rush rate (3.1%, 22nd among QBs who started at least three games in 2025) and pass effectively (72% Comp%, 8.9 YPA, 4,394 yards without A.J. Brown).

Funston: I’m going with Dart. He’s an unpolished passer with crash-test dummy instincts. But the flip side is the reckless-abandon running and dramatic flare leading to seven top-nine QB finishes in his final 10 starts of his rookie campaign.

Kyler Murray or Malik Willis — who would you bet $100 on to finish with more fantasy points in 2026?

Ciely: Willis: see previous answer, haha.

Behrens: It’s close, but I’m gonna take the guy whose primary receiving weapons are Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison over the guy throwing to Caleb Douglas and Greg Dulcich.

Del Don: I’m fully in on Willis as a sleeper this season — he’s the QB5 in fantasy points per snap since 2023 — but I’m buying Murray even more. He was a QB1 during each of his previous six seasons before last year and now joins Kevin O’Connell’s system; pedestrian Minnesota QBs were putting up big stats before J.J. McCarthy, and Murray runs more than any of them. Murray is playing for his next contract and gets to throw to Justin Jefferson; he’s a QB1 for fantasy this year.

Evans: Let’s see, the former has Jefferson, Addison, Jauan Jennings, T.J. Hockenson and Aaron Jones as primary weapons. Meanwhile, the latter is “blessed” with unproven WRs Caleb Douglas, Chris Bell and Jalen Tolbert. The Mini-Dachshund of Minnesota needs to avoid the Call of Duty temptation, but he’s in a significantly better offensive environment. Roughly 3,400 passing yards, 500 rushing yards and 23-26 combined TDs are in Kyler’s immediate future.

Salfino: Willis. He’s the classic QB who you play against and think he’s been controlled and then he finishes with 140 passing yards and a TD and 50 rushing yards and a TD — nothing, really — and that’s 20 points. Willis is probably the goal-line back.

Bryant: I’ll take Willis. He could lead all QBs in rushing yards, which will massively pad his fantasy-point total. The Dolphins paid him for a reason, and he was not in a QB competition to begin the preseason (not that Murray really was). While in Green Bay last year, Willis averaged 12.8 yards per attempt and completed 84.4% of passes in Weeks 16 and 17. It’s a tiny sample (32 attempts), but he could surprise as a passer this season.

Funston: I’m putting my C-note on Willis. I have “Russell Wilson goes to Denver” vibes for Murray. I think he’s close to washed as an NFL QB, far removed from his anomalous 2020 season. He’s missed 30 games in the past five years, and the rigors of the NFL season typically causes him to hit a wall in December, when he stops running in earnest and his passing numbers take a dive.

Which one of the following QBs would you predict to score the most points in the second half of the 2026 regular season?

• Tua Tagovailoa
• Michael Penix
• Kirk Cousins
• Fernando Mendoza
• Deshaun Watson
• Shedeur Sanders
• Jacoby Brissett
• Carson Beck

Ciely: Mendoza, as he’s the only player I’d call a lock to hold the starting job when the late season rolls around. Unless Brissett is still out there throwing 40 passes a game like he’s playing NFL Blitz, nobody else on this list touches Mendoza’s potential.

Behrens: Everyone seems to expect Brissett to be dislodged by Beck at some point, and, sure, maybe it will happen. But what if Arizona’s offense kinda clicks? That team is not exactly short on talent at the skill spots. I’ll take my chances with the guy who has the starting gig in a promising environment right now.

Del Don: Mendoza will likely take over for Cousins long before then, and he gets to play indoors with Brock Bowers and Klint Kubiak. Mendoza also could add some rushing juice, and I have no confidence in the quarterback rooms in Atlanta and Cleveland. Beck is also a candidate with his weapons in Arizona.

Evans: Admittedly, Mendoza has a clearer opportunity path, but give this riverboat gambler Beck. With Arizona a likely underdog in almost every game this season, Brissett’s days as the starter are likely numbered. With Trey McBride, Marvin Harrison, Michael Wilson and Jeremiyah Love to spin spirals to and due to Arizona’s presumed abominable defense, Beck has excellent odds of cleaning up in garbage time.

Salfino: Go home, Brandon. You’re drunk. Seriously? Look, all the data and history says the Raiders will switch to Mendoza by Week 7 at the latest, no matter what they’re saying. He should get 12-15 points per week when he plays, which will do. Beck would be my second choice. Tagovailoa probably doesn’t get benched, but he has a ton of injury risk.

Bryant: I like Penix. I don’t think Tagovailoa can hold on to the job or stay on the field, so Penix has a clear pathway to points when he’s at full strength. I’m not sure how many of the others will be out there later in the year outside of Mendoza, who would be my second choice. Penix has a great connection with WR Drake London and TE Kyle Pitts, plus Bijan Robinson and Brian Robinson to throw to out of the backfield. I think 18 FPPG is relatively likely in the second half. 

Funston: I’m not sure why Salfino is calling me drunk for asking a question in which I had no skin in the game. But, I’m guessing he’ll think I’m drunk if I don’t pick Mendoza. To be honest, if I knew who Atlanta’s QB was going to be in the second half, I’d take him, but that’s why Mendoza makes the most sense — he’s the most bankable of the group to be playing throughout the double-digit weeks.

If they were looking at a 4-game starting stint, for which QB’s services would you most eagerly hit the waiver wire?

• Anthony Richardson (IND)
• Justin Fields (KC)
• Mac Jones (SF)
• Jameis Winston (NYG)
• Jalen Milroe (SEA)

Ciely: Picking anyone besides Richardson is pure “Game Over” logic. We already know the capped ceiling for almost everyone else on this list. Milroe is the only uncertainty. But we’ve seen Richardson produce like an elite QB1 on raw athleticism alone, even with shaky (putting it lightly) passing chops. This situation would suggest Daniel Jones got hurt, which means ARich doesn’t need the passing improvement we long for to instantly deliver top-tier points.

Behrens: There is no greater thrill in fantasy sports than adding Winston to the squad ahead of a must-win December matchup. If you don’t feel the same way, then I’m afraid you simply are not built for this game.

Del Don: Richardson and Milroe are tempting (and Winston would be great news for Malik Nabers’ fantasy value), but I lean Fields. But any of the three running quarterbacks (ARich, Milroe, Fields) would suddenly become borderline QB1 weekly fantasy options if starting.

Evans: Load up the special sauce. San Francisco’s Jones has the potential to be a tasty Big Mac. The journeyman has shown he can be productive in a pinch. Considering the Niners’ arsenal and Kyle Shanahan’s schematic brilliance, Jones could once again deliver a string of 20-fantasy point performances. Recall he finished No. 2 among qualifying passers in adjusted completion percentage last fall.

Salfino: You’re killing me. This is like picking which steamed vegetable to eat. Give me Jones since he was playable in last year’s relief stint and Purdy is not exactly Iron Man.

Bryant: I trust Andy Reid to use Fields appropriately, and his rushing floor and ceiling are appealing. He’ll be in the best situation of his career, is getting a lot of preseason and practice reps while Mahomes rehabs and should be comfortable with the offense by the time opportunity knocks.

Funston: Richardson has 635 rushing and 10 rushing TDs in 15 career starts, two of which were very early exits. As Jake alluded to, the passing element is mostly unwatchable, but when you have the rushing upside Richardson offers, even a little contribution through the air goes a long way.