World Cup odds, best bets for Wednesday’s Group A, B, C finales featuring Mexico, Canada, Brazil

This is when things get fun. The 2026 World Cup has already featured plenty of drama, memorable moments and results, but the last set of group-stage matches with simultaneous kickoffs is one of the best things in the sport.

Some teams will be desperate to get a result (some won’t) and will also have an eye on the scoreboard in some circumstances. Things can change quickly. It’s beautiful chaos.

Even with the expanded 48-team field, where eight of 12 third-place teams will advance to the knockout stage, Wednesday’s six matches should provide plenty of excitement as teams jockey for position.

Here’s a look at what is at stake for each of the 12 teams. If you’re placing bets or in a pick ’em pool, this is your guide on how the teams are likely to play given the scenarios they face. Advancement percentages are from The Athletic’s World Cup predictor.

Group B

Switzerland vs. Canada

Standings: Canada (4 points, 1st), Switzerland (4 points, 2nd)

Time: 3 p.m. ET

TV: Fox (English), Telemundo (Spanish)

Venue: BC Place, Vancouver

Canada scenarios: Wins the group with a win or draw, almost certainly advances with a loss (>99%)

Switzerland scenarios: Wins the group with a win, advances with a draw, almost certainly advances with a loss (>99%)

This game all depends on Switzerland’s motivation to win the group. If the Swiss are content with second place and a draw, this match could be incredibly dull. Both teams advance with a draw, with Canada winning the group.

Canada is motivated to win the group, so the first two knockout rounds in its bracket would be in Vancouver. Jesse Marsch’s team has plenty to play for, but, again, a draw is enough.

If the Swiss take a lead, this game will be wide open. Otherwise, this could be a low-scoring match. Under 2.5 goals is favored, and this is viewed as the most likely draw of the day at just over 2-to-1.

Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar

Standings: Bosnia-Herzegovina (1 point, 3rd), Qatar (1 point, 4th)

Time: 3 p.m. ET

TV: FS1 (English), Telemundo (Spanish)

Venue: Lumen Field, Seattle

Bosnia-Herzegovina scenarios: Almost certainly advances with a win (>99%), almost certainly eliminated with a draw (1%), eliminated with a loss

Qatar scenarios: Almost certainly advances with a win (>99%), almost certainly eliminated with a draw (<1%), eliminated with a loss

The counterbalance to Canada-Switzerland is this match where both teams pretty much need to win to advance. The good news is a win gives either four points, which is expected to be plenty among third-place teams.

Qatar had two players sent off in its ugly 6-0 loss to Canada last time out, and Bosnia is a strong favorite.

Neither team has advanced at a World Cup before.

Group C

Scotland vs. Brazil

Standings: Brazil (4 points, 1st), Scotland (3 points, 3rd)

Time: 6 p.m. ET

TV: Fox (English), Telemundo (Spanish)

Venue: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Fla.

Brazil scenarios: Advances with a win or draw, almost certainly advances with a loss (>99%)

Scotland scenarios: Advances with a win, almost certainly advances with a draw (>99%), could advance with a loss (77%)

Brazil is a big favorite for this match, but the Scots have plenty to play for. Scotland is guaranteed to finish at least in third place in Group C, which means the worst-case scenario is the Tartan Army watches scores over the next few days and hopes to get in.

The easy temptation for Scotland is to play for a draw, but the tricky part will be deciding how aggressive to be if the Scots go behind. A one-goal loss isn’t so damning. If the deficit goes to two or three, things get dicier. There’s a good chance the cut-line for third-place teams will be decided by goal differential among teams with three points. In other words, every goal will matter for Scotland.

Meanwhile, Brazil could be in a goal differential race with Morocco to win the group. The tension could be strong for this one.

Morocco vs. Haiti

Standings: Morocco (4 points, 2nd), Haiti (0 points, 4th)

Time: 6 p.m. ET

TV: FS1 (English), Telemundo (Spanish)

Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta

Morocco scenarios: Advances with a win or draw, almost certainly advances with a loss (>99%)

Haiti scenarios: Already eliminated

Morocco is the biggest favorite of the day, and it’s not hard to see why. Haiti has already been eliminated after two losses, and Morocco is chasing a chance to win the group.

The Atlas Stars have to make up two goals in goal differential to top Brazil in the group if Brazil beats Scotland. It’s possible we see both teams dueling with a flurry of goals while running up the score. Morocco may have an easier opponent for that, but also has some ground to make up at the start.

Group A

Czech Republic vs. Mexico

Standings: Mexico (6 points, 1st), Czech Republic (1 point, 3rd)

Time: 9 p.m. ET

TV: Fox (English), Telemundo (Spanish)

Venue: Estadio Azteca, Mexico City

Mexico scenarios: Has already clinched the group

Czech Republic scenarios: Almost certainly in with a win (>99%), likely eliminated with a draw (9%), eliminated with a loss

Mexico has nothing to play for and could rest some players, which is to the Czech Republic’s benefit. The Czechs realistically need to win to advance.

The Mexican fans booed the team during halftime of the last game against South Korea, and then El Tri went on to win the match and the group in the second half. Will the fans be as demanding, or will they be more forgiving knowing this is a glorified friendly for Mexico? Perhaps the fans can urge the players to put on a show.

Mexico is still favored to win, but at just less than even money.

South Africa vs. South Korea

Standings: South Korea (3 points, 2nd), South Africa (1 point, 4th)

Time: 9 p.m. ET

TV: FS1 (English), Telemundo (Spanish)

Venue: Estadio BBVA, Guadalupe, Mexico

South Korea scenarios: Advances with a win or draw, could advance with a loss (62%)

South Africa scenarios: Almost certainly advances with a win (>99%), almost certainly eliminated with a draw (1%), eliminated with a loss

South Africa is chasing a result from the kickoff here. Both a draw and a win give South Korea a second-place finish in the group, which means South Korea is in essence playing with a lead from the start.

Even a one-goal loss wouldn’t be devastating to the Koreans, but it would lead to a lot of scoreboard watching over the next few days.

Bafana Bafana will likely come out pressing, which could make this wide open, but South Korea has no motivation to send bodies forward in big numbers as long as the score is level.

Best bets

Mike Hume: Bosnia-Qatar both teams to score, -126 (FanDuel)

With both teams lodged at the bottom of their group with one point and over 2.5 goals priced at -185, I think both teams are going to chase the win. Will they press too hard and give up a counterattacking opportunity? That’s the guess here.

Dan Santaromita: Canada-Switzerland draw, +210 (DraftKings)

This is all about the scenarios. Both teams should be happy enough with a draw. Canada would win the group and get to stay home for up to two more rounds. Switzerland advances and doesn’t have to play a group winner in the next round. Unless the Swiss score an early goal, this game has a chance to be like watching paint dry.

Vik Chokshi: Czech Republic +0.5, -115 (DraftKings)

Scenario play here. Mexico has already clinched the group, while the Czechs need this win badly. My hope is they come out hungry and desperate and play like that all match long against a Mexico team that is just looking to avoid injury and get to the next stage.

This is a fun double chance bet. If the Czechs win or draw, we hit.

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