World Cup Golden Boot odds favor Kylian Mbappé against the field

The Golden Boot race has been one of the best parts of this World Cup. The superstars have dominated from the start and it has made for a competitive race to be the top scorer at the tournament.

Entering the final eight, Kylian Mbappé, Lionel Messi, Harry Kane and Erling Haaland were the top four scorers in the tournament and all appeared to have a shot to win the Golden Boot. They had all been scoring at absurd clips and only Haaland’s Norway entered the round as an underdog.

In the quarterfinals, Mbappé was the only one to score. The French star had a penalty saved in the first half against Morocco, but still finished with the game-winning goal. He is now tied with Messi atop the scoring chart with eight goals.

After each round of matches, Messi had been all alone in front after starting the tournament with his first World Cup hat trick. Now, Mbappé technically leads because he has three assists to Messi’s two. Messi got an assist in the 3-1 win against Switzerland, but did not score.

Mbappé is now a minus-odds favorite across the board. He is -140 to win the Golden Boot on FanDuel and -120 on DraftKings and BetMGM. Messi’s odds range between +140 and +150. It’s still very close, but Mbappé has the edge.

Haaland didn’t score in Norway’s extra-time loss to England and finishes the tournament with seven goals. Seven goals would be enough to win the Golden Boot in other World Cups, but not this one.

Kane also didn’t score for England, but his teammate, Jude Bellingham, scored twice to enter the Golden Boot race as a long-shot contender. Kane and Bellingham both have six goals. Both have odds longer than 10-to-1 so in reality it’s mostly a race between Mbappé and Messi, but the English duo has a shot with one big game.

France’s Ousmane Dembélé (five goals) and Spain’s Mikel Oyarzabal (four goals) are the only other contenders and both would need something special to catch the leading pair. Dembélé does have a hat trick already at this tournament and it would likely take another to win the Golden Boot.

One thing to keep an eye on while tracking the scoring race is which stars end up in the third-place match. All four teams remaining are guaranteed two more games, which means the semifinals won’t eliminate anyone from contention from the Golden Boot.

While the last two finals have featured six goals each, historically, typically they are low-scoring. Even including the goal barrages of the last two World Cup finals, since 1978, third-place matches have averaged 3.83 goals while finals have averaged 2.92. Teams tend to be afraid to concede in finals while third-place matches are realistically just glorified exhibitions. If Messi or Mbappé wind up playing for third, it would be a heartbreaking result for them and their teams, but wouldn’t necessarily be so bad for their Golden Boot chances.

Four years ago, the Golden Boot was decided in the final with both Messi and Mbappé entering the match with the tournament lead with five goals. Messi scored twice and Mbappé had a had trick. Messi was leading the Golden Boot race via the assist tiebreaker in the last minutes of the final before Mbappé scored his second penalty of the match in the 118th minute. That gave him eight, one more than Messi’s seven.

The 2026 final has a lot to live up to in order to match that drama, but it’s definitely possible that the final will again decide the Golden Boot.