Why Leeds want James Trafford – and why he would be such a key signing

Leeds United reached 100 points en route to their 2024-25 Championship title. In most other campaigns, that huge tally would have put them way beyond every other club in the division.

As it was, they only won the league on goal difference. Burnley finished second, but they too hit a century of points from the 46 matches. Leeds’ 95 goals dwarfed Burnley’s 69, but the latter were able to keep pace with their rivals because of their stingy defence.

Burnley, barely believably, conceded 16 goals in the 46 games. That total was only one higher than Chelsea’s record for the fewest goals conceded in an English football season (15). However, Burnley’s achievement was more impressive as they did it across eight more games than Chelsea’s 38 in the 2004-05 Premier League.

The Lancashire club’s tally of 30 clean sheets equalled the English record set by Port Vale in 1953-54. Scott Parker’s side were also the first in English football to complete an entire season without ever conceding more than once in a league game.

And one of the main reasons for these incredible defensive numbers, as Leeds experienced first-hand, was goalkeeper James Trafford.

Fourteen months on from the end of that season, Leeds want the now full England international to be their man between the sticks in 2026-27 and beyond.

The Athletic has reported Leeds are negotiating with Manchester City over Trafford and that the 23-year-old is leaning towards the move to Elland Road. While no deal has yet been finalised, supporters will be hopeful Trafford’s preference will mean he starts the coming season as their No 1.

In terms of the eventual fee, the player’s profile, the quality of his other suitors and the importance of his position, this could be the most important piece of business Leeds do in this window.

The club have seemingly had question marks hanging over their goalkeepers for the best part of 25 years.

From the mid-1990s up until 2002, Nigel Martyn was a cornerstone of Leeds teams who finished in the Premier League’s top five, played in Europe and reached a Champions League semi-final. Since then, there were brief flickers from the likes of Paul Robinson or Rob Green, but there was a natural ceiling as to whom Leeds fielded as their goalkeeper when outside the top division of English football.

After performing very well in 2020-21, Leeds’ first season back in the Premier League after an absence of 16 years, Illan Meslier’s signature on a five-year contract was viewed as a long-term solution. Sadly, the dip in his form mirrored the club’s slide back into the Championship.

Meslier ended up feeling like a problem Leeds had to solve for three or four seasons, but Lucas Perri, whom they hoped would be the solution after a £13.9million move from French side Lyon last summer, had a difficult debut year.

While there are never guarantees, Trafford, on paper at least, has the raw materials to be their No 1 for the next decade. Admittedly, similar sentiments were echoed when Meslier signed his bumper deal at 21, but Trafford’s age, England status and recent track record bode well.

The headline statistic behind Trafford’s remarkable 2024-25 season with Burnley was his goals-prevented figure. He conceded just those 16 goals that year, but the data suggested he should have let in 27.1, excluding penalties and own goals.

This is based on expected goals on target (xGOT), a data point which measures the quality of attempts a goalkeeper faces, accounting for factors like the placement or angle of a shot. Therefore, Trafford actively prevented 11.1 non-penalty goals for Burnley in the 2024-25 Championship.

Notably, this goals-prevented metric doesn’t account for the different number of shots a ’keeper faces. With Burnley’s defence being so good, it is unfair to compare him with a counterpart who has to deal with a lot more attempts on their goal.

Therefore, we can look at “goals-prevented rate”, which adjusts for the volume of shots to see the degree to which a ’keeper concedes at a rate above or below expectation. A figure above one means they are saving more than they are conceding; a number below one tells us they are letting in more than they are stopping.

Trafford’s goals-prevented rate in that season was 1.7. Put simply, he would have been expected to concede 1.7 goals for every goal he actually did allow, which, across the course of a 46-game campaign, is an incredible return.

Even last season, when he did not play often for City as backup to Gianluigi Donnarumma, Trafford produced good numbers. He started 17 times across all competitions and only conceded 12 non-penalty goals from an xGOT of 17.2.

There is plenty of evidence of the excellent saves Trafford has made.

Last August, before City signed Donnarumma, he started away to Brighton and Hove Albion in the league. He initially has to contend with Jan Paul van Hecke holding him at a corner. He is released, then sees Lewis Dunk win the first contact. Dunk’s header is deflected to Van Hecke, whose close-range volley also takes a ricochet as it travels towards goal.

Trafford has to react to the movement of the ball, leap up to his left and claw it away from behind him.

Seven months later, in the Carabao Cup final, Trafford made a series of three quick-fire saves to deny Arsenal.

He is only a yard off his line as Martin Zubimendi plays Kai Havertz in behind the City defence. Once he is sure Havertz has the ball and is through, Trafford races out. He narrows the gap, stays big and blocks the shot away, but it only goes as far as Bukayo Saka. The winger shoots, but Trafford saves again.

Saka gets to pick up the pieces and tries a second time. Trafford pops up off the turf quickly, sets himself and then gets a more meaningful clearance on the ball with a save using his boot.

Trafford made no secret of his desire to play more regular football last season, having been signed from Burnley in the July only for Donnarumma to show up a month later. If he is to leave the Etihad Stadium this summer, it is clearly going to be for a club where he expects to be the starter.

In that sense, Leeds fit the bill nicely. Two potential rivals for selection in Meslier and Karl Darlow have already left the club this summer, while Perri finished last season as second choice.

The big pitch from Leeds, led by managing director Robbie Evans, sporting director Adam Underwood and manager Daniel Farke, will centre on the platform they can give him for future England caps, with a new World Cup cycle now underway and long-time first-choice Jordan Pickford turning 33 next season. They will show Trafford how, by playing regularly as their No 1 in the Premier League, in front of one of the country’s most vociferous fanbases, he can maintain his place in the England setup.

The success Anton Stach and Dominic Calvert-Lewin found with Leeds last season, earning recalls for Germany and England respectively, will be pointed out to Trafford.

The wider hit-rate of the club’s summer 2025 window, the ambition of their recruitment in this one and form which would have Leeds seventh in a Premier League table for matches played from December 1 to the end of the campaign in May won’t harm their sales job, either.

Every Leeds supporter will be crossing their fingers that the hierarchy prove persuasive — and that Trafford offers their club a long-term solution in goal.