Who are Winnipeg Jets’ biggest X-factors next season? Best- and worst-case scenarios

With players such as Anthony Mantha and Eeli Tolvanen on the market, there’s still time for general manager Kevin Cheveldayoff to go back to free agency to build the 2026-27 Winnipeg Jets.

But Cheveldayoff has been adamant that some of Winnipeg’s improvement next season must come from the players it already has on its roster.

“You go through some individual players,” Cheveldayoff said before the NHL Draft last month. “Guys that had career years two years ago, some of them struggled last year. A lot of them took ownership of that and said that they’ve got to be better.”

The list of underperforming players creates an X-factor for the Jets’ performance next season. It includes captain Adam Lowry, veteran defencemen such as Neal Pionk and Dylan DeMelo, and prime-aged players such as Cole Perfetti and Dylan Samberg who were hurt to start last season. It even includes trade candidate Connor Hellebuyck, whose range of impacts on the Jets’ fortunes varies wildly, whether or not he’s traded before the season begins.

Which Jets are Winnipeg’s biggest X-factors next season? When Cheveldayoff’s offseason work is done, which Jets veterans will have the biggest impact on the team’s playoff ambitions for 2027? Here are best- and worst-case scenarios, plus my projections for each player’s performance in 2026-27.

Stuart Skinner, G, 27

Best reasonable case: Hellebuyck is traded, and Skinner becomes the Jets’ No. 1 goalie. He gives Winnipeg 50 to 55 games of quality goaltending, turning his opportunity to work with Wade Flaherty into the best season of his career. Whether through systems play or a renewed teamwide commitment to defence, the Jets give Skinner fewer Grade-A scoring chances to fend off than they gave Hellebuyck last season. His save percentage lands inside the top 10 among starters — perhaps close to the .913 he delivered in his best season in Edmonton.

Worst reasonable case: Hellebuyck is traded, Skinner becomes the Jets’ No. 1 goalie, and Winnipeg gives him Hellebuyck’s old workload. He falters in the role, posting numbers closer to the .885 save percentage and 45th-best goals saved above expected he recorded in Pittsburgh. The Jets miss the playoffs for the second straight season but draft outside the top five.

Projection: Skinner plays spectacularly at times and miserably at others, posting numbers that reflect an adequate No. 1A goaltender. If a Hellebuyck trade materializes, Skinner posts a .900 save percentage in 55 starts. If Hellebuyck starts the season with the Jets, then Skinner’s save percentage increases but his workload falls. He is the Jets’ No. 1 goaltender by 2027-28 at the latest.

Adam Lowry, C, 33

Best reasonable case: Lowry puts together the most effective offseason regimen of his life. He reestablishes enough pop in his step to close off his checks, getting to better defensive positions in open ice and delivering punishment along the walls. The black hole that was Lowry’s offensive zone heat map turns red again, indicating that he has won his battles, worn down his opponents and driven to the net like he did in his best years. His return to form is so complete that Winnipeg controls the shot clock and scoreboard when he is on the ice. His surgically repaired hip becomes a distant memory.

Worst reasonable case: Lowry is cooked. He was never a burner, but now, at 33 years old, he has fallen a step behind and it’s not all about last season’s return from hip surgery. The 21 points Lowry scored in 70 games last season become his new normal. By the end of the season, it’s clear that Lowry is a fourth-line centre — not the play-driving shutdown centre that coaches can win with in a matchup role.

Projection: Lowry has made it to the scary part of the aging curve, but he is too stubborn not to bounce back from last season’s disappointment. He needs to be able to win his battles to contribute to team success; a time will come when Lowry is simply incapable of playing like Lowry. This season, though, he scores 30 points and wins his minutes at even strength. The victory is minor, but it’s enough to stall Father Time and create false hope for 2027-28.

Cole Perfetti, LW/C, 24

Best reasonable case: A Hellebuyck trade yields a legitimate No. 2 centre, giving Perfetti his best linemate since Nikolaj Ehlers — perhaps even Ryan McLeod, Perfetti’s old OHL linemate. Perfetti surpasses his 50-point career high, playing all 82 games for the second time in his career. He gets time on the Jets’ top power play, despite the new centre’s quality, and starts to look like someone who might produce offence with or without a play driver like Ehlers on his line.

Worst reasonable case: Winnipeg keeps Hellebuyck. Scott Arniel goes back to Kyle Connor, Mark Scheifele and Gabriel Vilardi on the top line, reducing Perfetti’s opportunity to play with one of the team’s top scorers. As a complementary player without someone to drive play, open up space, or finish his passes, Perfetti posts 35 to 40 points instead of re-establishing himself as a 50-point threat.

Projection: The Jets augment their second line, whether via trade, a new approach to roster construction, the promotion of Viggo Björck or a return to the Perfetti-Lowry-Vilardi line that developed chemistry at the end of last season. He stays mostly healthy and mostly consistent, producing 50 to 55 points, setting the table for a step forward in 2027-28.

Neal Pionk, D, 30

Best reasonable case: Pionk arrives at camp determined to prove people wrong. The Jets upgrade their forwards such that more than one defence pair gets to play behind a line that scores. Pionk crosses the 30-point plateau for the seventh time in his career. The defensive chaos in his game persists. Samberg is so convincing with his Jaccob Slavin impression that Winnipeg’s second pair excels as a duo.

Worst reasonable case: Pionk struggles defensively without producing enough offence to make up for it. Last season’s 12 points in 51 games become Pionk’s new normal. Back-to-back down years leave fans wondering whether the soon-to-be 31-year-old has aged out of effectiveness with four years left on his $7 million AAV deal.

Projection: Pionk and Samberg win their minutes but fall well short of the 36-21 advantage Winnipeg enjoyed with them on the ice in 2024-25. An improved second line helps Pionk score at least 30 points. His defensive metrics reflect chaos, particularly with respect to exit passing. He throws at least two hip checks.

Dylan DeMelo, D, 33

Best reasonable case: Winnipeg reunites DeMelo with Josh Morrissey. He makes consistent puck retrievals and exit passes, and the Jets outscore their opponents when he’s on the ice at even strength. The NHL’s biggest and fastest players cause him trouble that shows up in highlights, but DeMelo wins his minutes anyway. There’s enough concern that he’s reliant on Morrissey that DeMelo’s quality remains a topic of debate.

Worst reasonable case: DeMelo loses a step, exacerbating his weaknesses while making it harder for him to play to his strengths. He retrieves fewer pucks and his short, pressure-relieving passes in the defensive zone start to dry up. Winnipeg is unable to find an upgrade and unwilling to try Elias Salomonsson that high up the lineup, so Morrissey and DeMelo struggle with their workload.

Projection: DeMelo ends up on the third pair by season’s end and excels there. His critics complain anyway.

Bonus 1: Viggo Björck, C, 18

Best reasonable case: Björck signs his entry-level contract and makes the Jets out of training camp. He finds a home on the second line and wins his minutes as an 18-year-old rookie. When the season ends, it’s clear the Jets have done more than find their second-line centre — they’ve done it while Scheifele is still a viable No. 1.

Worst reasonable case: Björck returns to the Swedish league — not as a proactive choice but because he was fed to the wolves in the NHL and wasn’t ready for that level of competition. He plays a big role for Djurgårdens IF and succeeds on the whole, but he fails to increase his point production in the SHL season. He joins the Jets when his season ends but is limited to the press box or an AHL role. He arrives at Jets camp in 2027 as an NHL hopeful and not a sure thing.

Projection: Björck returns to the SHL and excels. He grabs hold of Djurgårdens’ No. 1 centre job and takes a step forward in all three zones, finishing among the top scorers on his team. Björck joins the Jets when his SHL season is over and makes an immediate impact, scoring points and building NHL momentum that carries over into 2027 Jets camp. He is Winnipeg’s second-line centre in 2027-28.

Bonus 2: Connor Hellebuyck, G, 33

Best reasonable case: Hellebuyck returns to the lineup and to Hart Trophy-winning form. He and Skinner give Winnipeg the best 84-game tandem of any NHL team. Alternatively, Winnipeg trades him for a top-pairing defenceman or top-six forward of such quality that it solves the Jets’ depth issues for several seasons.

Worst reasonable case: Hellebuyck returns to the lineup but is dismayed as the Jets struggle to make the playoffs or get out of the first round. Trade offers get worse when he turns 34 than they are right now.

Projection: He’s traded, but it takes so long that fans feel relief that the speculation is finally over before they consider the trade return or Hellebuyck’s Jets legacy. At his Hart Trophy-winning peak, he was the best player that ever wore a Winnipeg Jets jersey.