Which World Cup third-place teams will advance to knockout stage? Here’s all you need to know

The Athletic has live coverage of Curacao vs Ivory Coast at the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

If you’re a fan of Scotland, South Korea or any other team that finishes in third place in its group at the World Cup, the question is now: Are we in?

For some, such as Bosnia and Herzegovina, Sweden and Ecuador, the latter thanks to stunning win against Germany at MetLife, the answer is yes.

But other teams are waiting in limbo, unsure whether they have done enough to advance to the knockout rounds. Unlike in past tournaments, where only each group’s top two teams advanced, this year, eight of the 12 third-place teams will move on to the Round of 32. Those standings are determined by points, then goal differential — and, perhaps most critically, they are not finalized until all groups have finished play. (The last group-stage matches are Saturday at 10 p.m. Eastern.)

But our forecast, based on thousands of simulations of the tournament, helps provide clarity:

• If you finish third with four points, you will almost certainly advance.
• If you finish third with three points, you probably will advance, but it will depend on your goal differential.
• If you finish third with two points, you will not advance. 

This chart shows the likelihood of advancing based on a third-place team’s points and goal differential as of Thursday afternoon (6.15pm ET)

This chart will update live on our forecast page as games are played. It may provide reassurance to some teams — and worry to others.

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Which teams have finished third and are through?

Ecuador (Group E)

With four points and a goal difference of zero, Ecuador are through to the knockout stage. The South Americans were in real trouble following a loss to Ivory Coast and 0-0 draw with Curacao but they stunned the four-times champions Germany at MetLife in their final group match, winning 2-1.

Their most likely opponents in the round of 32 are Mexico in Mexico City, per The Athletic’s model. 

Bosnia and Herzegovina (Group B)

Through the round of 32 after finishing third in Canada’s group with four points and a -2 goal difference. They will now play the United States in San Francisco on July 1. Here’s everything that USA fans need to know about the Bosnia and Herzegovina team.

Sweden (Group F)

With four points and a goal differential of 0, Sweden are through. A 1-1 draw against Japan in the final round of group games was enough to help them bounce back (kind of) from the 5-1 thrashing suffered at the hands of Netherlands on June 20.

Their most likely opponents in the round of 32 are France or Norway at MetLife on June 30.

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Which teams have finished third and could go through?

South Korea (Group A)

With three points and a goal differential of -1, South Korea have a great chance of advancing. It’s been a disappointing start to the tournament though, and in their final group match against South Africa, which they lost 1-0, they dropped Son Heung-min, their captain and greatest ever player.

Our forecast model gives them an 83 percent chance of making the knockout stage.

Scotland (Group C)

With three points and a goal differential of -3, it’s going to be close. Scotland were thrashed by Brazil in the final match of the group stage, and their manager Steve Clarke has come in for criticism after storming out of interviews at this tournament. 

Our forecast model gives them an 16 percent chance of advancing to the knockout stage.

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Which teams are currently in third position in the other groups?

And here’s what our forecast tells us about the other seven teams that are currently in third place, all of whom have one game left to play.

(Please note that the upcoming fixture each team has is factored into their chances of progression. These sides are ordered by their current standing in the third-place teams’ table. They may, of course, not finish third in their group.)

Croatia (Group L)

With three points and a goal differential of -1, Croatia have an okay chance of advancing.

Luka Modric’s side beat Panama 1-0 in the second group game, recovering somewhat from the disappointment of losing the opener to England. Croatia now faces a tricky task against Ghana on Saturday, but should still have done enough to get through. The country lost in the final of the 2018 World Cup and then came third in Qatar in 2022, so a group-stage exit would be seen as a huge failure.

Our forecast model gives them a 34 percent chance of making the knockout stage.

Algeria (Group J)

With three points and a goal differential of -2, they have an okay chance of advancing.

Algeria was beaten by the brilliance of Lionel Messi and Argentina in the first group game but then picked up a vital three points against Jordan to place itself on the cusp of the knockout stage. The team faces former Manchester United head coach Ralf Rangnick’s Austria on Saturday and will be confident of getting out the groups at the World Cup for just the second time, after 2014.

Our forecast model gives them a 34 percent chance of making the knockout stage.

Paraguay (Group D)

With three points and a goal differential of -2, they have an okay chance of advancing.

The South American side was humbled by the United States in its tournament opener but a crucial victory over Turkey has helped turn its prospects around. Paraguay faces second-place Australia, who it is level with on points in Group D, in a vital game on Thursday evening.

Our forecast model gives them a 33 percent chance of making the knockout stage.

Cape Verde (Group H)

With two points and a goal differential of 0, Cape Verde have a slim chance of advancing.

The minnow backed up its historic draw against Spain with another draw against two-time champions Uruguay and now faces Saudi Arabia (a team that is on paper inferior to Spain and Uruguay) in its last match on Friday. The African nation has been one of the stories of the tournament so far and qualification for the knockout stage would be a truly historic achievement.

Our forecast model gives them an 8 percent chance of making the knockout stage.

Belgium (Group G)

With two points and a goal differential of -0, they have a slim chance of advancing.

The Belgians have a star-studded (if ageing) side, but overall that team has been underwhelming so far in draws against Egypt and Iran. However, the side is unbeaten and should be stronger than Friday’s opponents New Zealand; which means Kevin De Bruyne and co are favoured to advance.

Our forecast model gives them an 8 percent chance of making the knockout stage.

DR Congo (Group K)

Despite having only one point and a goal differential of -1, DR Congo’s final fixture means they have an okay chance of advancing.

The African team is playing in just its second World Cup (after 1974 when the country was called Zaire) and it frustrated Portugal and Cristiano Ronaldo on June 17 to pick up a precious point. However, a loss to Colombia followed and Sebastien Desabre’s side will need to put Uzbekistan to the sword when they play on Saturday. A point would not be enough.

Our forecast model gives them a 42 percent chance of advancing to the knockout stage.

Senegal (Group I)

Despite having zero points and a goal differential of -3, their fixure against Iraq means they have a pretty good chance of advancing.

Senegal has lost both its games so far, going down to Kylian Mbappe’s France and Erling Haaland’s Norway. However, the team played well at times and victory over Iraq on Friday will likely be enough to reach the knockout stage.

Our forecast model gives them a 59 percent chance of advancing to the knockout stage.

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Why it’s so uncertain

This format, with third-place teams advancing, means that very few countries were mathematically eliminated before their final group-stage game. Thirty-six of the 48 teams entered their final games with at least some chance of finishing third.

Even Senegal and Iraq — two teams that have yet to earn a point in Group I — have a chance to advance. They play each other Friday, and the winner could move on as a third-place team, though goal differential may be key. Senegal’s is -3, which means it would likely advance with a win, while three points is unlikely to be enough for Iraq given their goal difference is -6.

This framework — thinking about how your team’s points and goal differential compare to those of other potential third-place finishers — is far more helpful than tracking the live third-place standings.

For instance, it is not useful for Scotland to compare its resume to that of Cape Verde — a team currently third in its group but one that has yet to play its final game and also has a chance to finish first, second or fourth. (Our forecast gives Cape Verde just an 8 percent of finishing third.)

Instead, you can think about which groups are most likely to produce third-place teams that advance. 

This chart shows the likelihood that a group will send its third-place team — whichever team it is — into the knockout rounds. For instance, Group L will almost certainly have a team do so. Ghana are second with four points and a +1 goal difference and Croatia are third with three points and a -1 goal difference. They play each other on Saturday. 

If teams do manage to get a berth in the round of 32, where they play is a different question altogether. Where these third-place teams are positioned in the bracket depends on which eight groups have teams advance. For every possible combination, FIFA has assigned slots in the bracket to each third-place finisher. But the odds of where a group’s team lands vary. 

Our bracket projection considers all of these scenarios — as well the most likely outcomes of each game — and updates live.