Which World Cup third-place teams will advance to knockout stage? Here’s all you need to know
If you’re a fan of Scotland, South Korea or any other team that finishes in third place in its group at the World Cup, the question is now: Are we in?
For some, such as Bosnia and Herzegovina, Sweden and Ecuador, the latter thanks to a stunning win against Germany at MetLife, the answer is yes.
But other teams are waiting in limbo, unsure whether they have done enough to advance to the knockout rounds. Unlike in past tournaments, where only each group’s top two teams advanced, this year, eight of the 12 third-place teams will move on to the Round of 32. Those standings are determined by points, then goal differential — and, perhaps most critically, they are not finalized until all groups have finished play. (The last group-stage matches are Saturday at 10 p.m. Eastern.)
This new format, with eight third-place teams advancing, meant that very few countries were mathematically eliminated before their final group-stage game. Thirty-six of the 48 teams entered their final games with at least some chance of finishing third.
The Athletic’s forecast, based on thousands of simulations of the tournament, helps provide clarity:
- A third-place team with four or more points is essentially guaranteed to make the Round of 32.
- If you finish third with three points, you probably will advance, but it will depend on your goal differential.
- If you finish third with two points, you will not advance.
This chart shows the likelihood of advancing based on a third-place team’s points and goal differential as of Friday morning (09.45 a.m. Eastern.)
This chart will update live on our forecast page as games are played. It may provide reassurance to some teams — and worry to others.
This piece will be updated after each group’s final matches.
Which teams have finished third and are through?
Ecuador (Group E)
With four points and a goal differential of zero, Ecuador are through to the knockout stage. The South Americans were in real trouble following a loss to Ivory Coast and 0-0 draw with Curacao but they stunned the four-times champions Germany at MetLife in their final group match, winning 2-1.
Their most likely opponents in the round of 32 are Mexico in Mexico City, per The Athletic’s model.
Bosnia and Herzegovina (Group B)
Through to the round of 32 after finishing third in Canada’s group with four points and a -1 goal differential. They will now play the United States in San Francisco on July 1. Here’s everything that USA fans need to know about the Bosnia and Herzegovina team.
Sweden (Group F)
With four points and a goal differential of 0, Sweden are through. A 1-1 draw against Japan in the final round of group games was enough to help them bounce back (kind of) from the 5-1 thrashing suffered at the hands of Netherlands on June 20.
Their most likely opponents in the round of 32 are France or Norway at MetLife on June 30.
Yasin Ayari scores against Tunisia (Carl Recine/Getty Images)
Which teams have finished third and could go through?
Paraguay (Group D)
With four points and a goal differential of -2, Paraguay are virtually assured a place in the knockouts (>99 percent) after their 0-0 draw with Australia on Thursday night.
They are guaranteed to have a superior points total than two of the third-placed teams who have played all their matches (South Korea and Scotland, both three points), and whichever side finishes third in Group I (Senegal and Iraq both have zero points so far). You only need to be ahead of four third-placed teams at the end of the group stage.
Paraguay were humbled by the United States in its tournament opener but a crucial victory over Turkey helped turn its prospects around and the stalemate on Thursday suited both teams, with Australia going through as group runners-up.
If Paraguay go through, their most likely opponent are Germany in Boston on June 29.
South Korea (Group A)
With three points and a goal differential of -1, South Korea have a strong chance of advancing.
It’s been a disappointing start to the tournament though, and in their final group match against South Africa, which they lost 1-0, they dropped Son Heung-min, their captain and greatest ever player.
Our forecast model gives them an 68 percent chance of making the knockout stage.
Son reacts as a substitute in the defeat to South Africa (Wu Wei/Xinhua via Getty Images)
Scotland (Group C)
With three points and a goal differential of -3, it isn’t looking great for Scotland. They were thrashed by Brazil in the final match of the group stage, and their manager Steve Clarke has come in for criticism after storming out of interviews at this tournament.
Our forecast model gives them an 12 percent chance of advancing to the knockout stage.
Which groups yet to finish are likely to send a third-placed team through?
Half of the 12 groups have finished and there are five spots in the knockout stage still to be decided.
Before group play wraps up, it’s helpful to think about which groups are most likely to produce third-place teams that advance, rather than eyeballing the current third-place standings.
Here’s what our forecast can tell us about which groups are most likely to send a third-place team to the knockouts (and who that team is likely to be).
Group L: 89 percent
It’s very likely that the team that finishes third in this group will be in the round of 32.
Ghana are in second place with four points and a +1 goal differential, while Croatia are third with three points and a -1 goal differential. They play each other on Saturday.
Ghana’s points total virtually guarantees them a place in the knockout round (>99 percent). If they were to lose to Croatia on Saturday and drop to third in Group L, they would still have a superior points total (four) to two of the third-placed teams that have already finished their games (South Korea and Scotland), as well as Senegal and Iraq in Group I, who have zero points after two matches.
Ghana’s Caleb Yirenkyi, right, celebrates his winning goal against Panama (Ryan Hiscott/Getty Images)
Croatia beat Panama 1-0 in the second group game, recovering somewhat from the disappointment of losing the opener to England, and they should have already done enough to get through. Our forecast gives Croatia an 88 percent chance of making the knockout stage: in first place — 10 percent, in second place — 47 percent, and in third place — 31 percent. If they were to lose to Ghana by multiple goals, that would put them in danger of missing out.
Group G: 55 percent
While no team in Group G have secured their place in the knockouts after two rounds of matches, three of them having two or more points at this stage makes it more likely than not (a 55 per cent chance) that third place will send someone through.
Belgium have underwhelmed so far but face bottom side New Zealand in their final match, with two points and a neutral goal difference under their belt. They are the strong favourites in that fixture. Egypt take on Iran in the other match on Friday.
Iran need at least a draw to have a chance of advancing in third position.
Group I: 53 percent
The team that finishes third in this group has a chance of going through.
Senegal might have zero points and a goal differential of -3 from their first two games — against Kylian Mbappe’s France and Erling Haaland’s Norway — but their fixture on Friday gainst Iraq, a team 42 places below them in the world rankings (19th-61st), gives them a strong opportunity to advance.
If Senegal win, they will probably go through; if Iraq wins, probably not because of goal difference. If the game is a tie, neither will.
Norway and France are already through with six points each from two matches, and our forecast model gives Senegal a 53 percent chance of joining them from third place. Iraq, meanwhile, are given a 1 percent chance.
Group J: 50 percent
Argentina are definitely through, while Jordan are definitely out and have no chance of finishing third. Austria and Algeria face each other on Saturday to decide second and third place in Group J.
Ralf Rangnick’s Austria occupy second spot as things stand, with three points and a neutral goal differential, after being dismantled by Lionel Messi and Argentina in the first match and then picking up a vital win against Jordan. Algeria have three points and a goal differential of -2 having also lost to Argentina, and also beaten Jordan.
If Algeria lose to Austria they will need to be careful not to ship too many goals, as that would put them in danger of missing out on goal differential.
There is a 50 percent chance that third place in Group J will be enough to secure a place in the last 32.
Group K: 43 percent
Colombia are already through having won their opening two matches, and they face second-placed Portugal (four points, +5 goal differential) on Saturday in Miami.
DR Congo are in third place as things stand with one point (from an excellent draw against Portugal) and a -1 goal differential. DR Congo play Uzbekistan, who have a -7 goal differential and are the weakest team in the group, and have a very good chance of advancing if they win.
Our forecast model gives DR Congo a 42 percent chance of going through in third place, with a 1 percent chance of Portugal or Uzbekistan going through in that position.
Group H: 30 percent
This group has a 30 percent chance of sending the third-placed team into the next round.
Spain are in control of the group after following up a surprise draw with Cape Verde with an excellent 4-0 win against Saudi Arabia. They are expected to win the group.
Uruguay have been disappointing, drawing with Cape Verde and Saudi Arabia, and they face pre-tournament favourites Spain on Friday night.
Cape Verde, so good in their draw with Uruguay and Spain, have a 65 percent chance of going through to the round of 32, and will back themselves to pick up points in their final match against Saudi Arabia.
The third-place standings
If teams do manage to get a berth in the round of 32, where they play is a different question altogether. Where these third-place teams are positioned in the bracket depends on which eight groups have teams advance. For every possible combination, FIFA has assigned slots in the bracket to each third-place finisher. But the odds of where a group’s team lands vary.
Our bracket projection considers all of these scenarios — as well the most likely outcomes of each game — and updates live.