Which World Cup knockout path offers England a (supposedly) easier route to the final?
England’s place in the World Cup knockout stages is already assured — but the Group L leaders could still slip off top spot following their final game on Saturday.
Thomas Tuchel’s side were scintillating against Croatia in an opening 4-2 win but then frustrated in a 0-0 draw with Ghana. Their task now looks pretty simple: victory over Panama would see them win the group, so long as they also maintain a better goal difference than Ghana’s should they beat Croatia.
The Athletic’s live projection tool forecasts an 84 per cent chance for England to finish top and a 15 per cent chance of them finishing second.
But which offers an (in theory) easier path through the knockout rounds?
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What if England finish top?
If England win their group, it will mean avoiding the side of the World Cup knockout bracket where Spain, Germany, France, the Netherlands and Morocco are already set.
Top Group L and England will play their round-of-32 game in Atlanta on Wednesday, July 1. Their opponents would be one of the best third-placed teams from Group I, J or K.
As of Saturday morning, the two most likely possible opponents, according to our projection tool, would be Senegal (43 per cent) or DR Congo (36 per cent).
Although England would be favourites against either of those teams, Senegal might be a more preferable match-up as they are not as defensively-minded as DR Congo. Senegal beat Iraq 5-0 in their final group game on Friday, but they lost 3-1 to France and 3-2 to Norway, while DR Congo held Portugal to a draw. Against Ghana, we saw England struggle against a stubborn defensive setup.
If England were to progress further, their last-16 tie would be in Mexico City on Sunday, July 5. Here, they would face the winners of another round-of-32 game whose participants have not quite yet been fully decided. Mexico are one participant for sure. The Athletic’s live projection tool forecasts a more than 99 per cent chance of them facing Ecuador, and a less than one per cent of Scotland making it through the complex third-place qualification instead.
Taking on co-hosts Mexico on home turf in Mexico City would be a daunting prospect, but if England were to win, their quarter-final opponents would be one of Brazil, Japan, Ivory Coast or Norway.
When it comes to a potential semi-final match-up, that area of the World Cup knockout bracket is still relatively unpopulated before Saturday’s decisive final round of group games, but defending champions Argentina are probably the most likely to make it.
So a potential route here would see England play DR Congo, Mexico, Brazil and Argentina. That path doesn’t sound too easy, does it?
What if England finish second?
Drop to second and England move onto the side of the bracket with Spain, Germany, France, the Netherlands and Morocco — instead of Brazil, Argentina and Mexico.
Their round-of-32 match would be against Group K’s runner-up, most likely to be Portugal or Colombia, in Toronto on Tuesday, July 2.
In the last 16, which would be played in Dallas on Monday, July 6, their most probable opponents would be Spain. Luis de la Fuente’s side will take on Group J’s runner-up in the round of 32 — Austria or Algeria.
For the quarter-final (Friday, July 10), potential opponents aren’t quite as intimidating, but there would be the possibility of facing the United States or Belgium in Los Angeles.
The semi-final on this path would take place in Dallas on Tuesday, July 14. If England were to reach it, they would probably come up against one of France, Germany, Morocco or the Netherlands.
The trickiest potential route on this side of the bracket would see England play Portugal, Spain, Belgium and France. Fair to say that isn’t a cakewalk.
The Athletic’s projection tool gives France a 21 per cent chance of winning the World Cup (Franck Fife/AFP via Getty Images)
In summary, we’re most likely looking at these two potential paths to a World Cup final.
England qualify as Group L winners: DR Congo, Mexico, Brazil and Argentina.
England qualify as Group L runners-up: Portugal, Spain, Belgium and France.
On balance, the route of England finishing as group winners appeals slightly more, on paper.
Brazil and Argentina are top sides and performed well in the group stages — but there is a perception that they are perhaps more vulnerable than other contenders.
Argentina have an ageing squad, and no nation has defended a World Cup title since Brazil in 1962. As for Brazil, their midfield and full-backs have come under question and Raphinha has missed games with a hamstring injury.
But even with relatively favourable runs such as in 2018, when England had a knockout path of Colombia in the last 16 and Sweden in the quarter-finals before losing to Croatia in the semi-finals, success cannot be guaranteed.
Dropping to second would be considered a blow, but either way, England will need to prove they can overcome other top-ranked nations in the knockout stages.