Wall Street’s strong quarter. Plus, Lilly’s mixed obesity drug trial data
Every weekday, the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer releases the Homestretch — an actionable afternoon update, just in time for the last hour of trading on Wall Street. The S & P 500 and Nasdaq were higher on this last day of September and the third quarter. The market is rallying despite rising oil prices and bond yields. We thought the 10-year Treasury yield would fall after the August personal consumption expenditures price index showed slower-than-expected inflation. While the data pushed down interest rate hike expectations at the Federal Reserve’s October meeting, longer-dated Treasury bonds still sold off, pushing yields higher. The S & P 500 is on pace for a slight September gain, while the resurgence in the AI trade is helping the tech-heavy Nasdaq rally more than 2% for the month. Quarter to date, the S & P 500 is up about 2.6%, while the Nasdaq is up 3% over the past three months. The best-performing stocks in the portfolio this month were all AI-related: Intel , Meta Platforms , and CrowdStrike . The top stocks for the quarter? Software. Salesforce , again CrowdStrike, and Microsoft . The laggards in September were FedEx Freight and FedEx , Home Depot , and Goldman Sachs . For the quarter, our biggest underperformers were again FedEx Freight and Home Depot, as well as Qnity Electronics . Eli Lilly shares have been bouncing around after announcing positive results from a mid-stage trial of obesity and Type-2 diabetes patients, evaluating the safety and efficacy of what they call EloraTZP. It’s a combination of the company’s investigational amylin receptor agonist, Eloralintide, and the popular weight-loss drug tirzepatide. The headline results look very promising, with the combination delivering even greater weight loss than the high dose of trizepatide alone — 23.3% versus 14.8%. The theory behind the combo therapy is that it will serve a subset of obesity-drug patients who aren’t satisfied with their results on the existing therapies, whether that’s because of tolerability challenges or insufficient weight loss. The reason why Lilly stock turned lower late in the session? Perhaps it’s because the study showed that patients taking the combo experienced more frequent adverse events than those taking tirzepatide alone. This might be a surprise because part of our hope around EloraTZP was that it would make tirzeptatide more tolerable without sacrificing weight loss. Lilly already has a more efficacious drug in retatrutide waiting in the wings, which is why we are so focused on tolerability. There’s still plenty of promise that eloralintide on its own could deliver that goal, but the loraTZP data suggests the combination therapy will play a more niche role in Lilly’s expanding obesity portfolio. There is some reason to think the tolerability in the upcoming late-stage study could be improved. That’s because Lilly said the most common adverse events in the mid-stage trial occurred “primarily during dose escalation.” Ramping two drugs at once can’t be easy on the participants. In response, the company plans to use an “optimized escalation schedule” for Phase 3, which could help patients feel better as they ramp up to more powerful doses. Apple is looking to avoid a three-session losing streak . The Club stock rose 2% in Wednesday’s broader tech rally. It’s hard to tell exactly what may be moving the stock. There are competing headlines. Bloomberg reported on Counterpoint Research data, saying Apple could sell about 6 million iPhone Duos. The new foldable devices launch next month. While that 6 million estimate was out a couple of weeks ago, the computer trading algos could be picking up on Wednesday’s Bloomberg article. In a separate release dated Tuesday, Counterpoint sees a strong initial uptake of iPhone 18 Pro models in China compared to last year’s 17 Pro. It’s not exactly an apples-to-apples comparison (pun intended), since base-model iPhone 18s won’t be out until later this year. We still view the China sales as a strong sign because iPhone upgrade demand could be held back by people waiting for the Duo. Elsewhere, Bloomberg reported that Apple is working on a home hub, hoping it will become the centerpiece of the modern-day smart home. With a 6-inch square display, the device would address a product gap in the Apple portfolio, putting it in competition with fellow Club names Amazon and Alphabet, which both have home hubs with screens. A faster cadence of product launches could happen under John Ternus, who took over for Tim Cook as CEO on Sept. 1. Ternus was formerly the company’s hardware chief. Micron reports earnings after the closing bell . Analysts expect quarterly revenue to increase about 350% year over year to $51.07 billion and adjusted earnings per share to increase 943% to $31.61, according to data provider LSEG. As for the outlook, analysts estimate Micron’s revenue will increase to about $57.02 billion with adjusted EPS of $35.40 in the quarter ending in November. Before Thursday’s open, Accenture and McCormick are out with their quarterly results. On the data side, Challenger releases its latest look at job cuts. Also out: The final read on the September S & P Global U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers’ index, and the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index for September. (See here for a full list of the stocks in Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. 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