Top targets and fades for the first 8 rounds of 2026 fantasy football drafts

Top targets and fades for the first 8 rounds of 2026 fantasy football drafts

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I wouldn’t go so far to dare call myself a “Best Ball bro,” but I’ve drafted more teams than ever this summer. It’s been instructive watching ADP change over the past few months, and now it’s time to adjust to good old-fashioned regular draft season, which has arrived. With that in mind, here are my favorite players to target and fade in each of the first eight rounds of fantasy drafts, based on Fantasy Pros’ PPR composite ADP, starting with a running back in Buffalo.

Round 1 (Picks 1-12)

Target: James Cook, RB, BUF (ADP 10)

Jahmyr Gibbs and Bijan Robinson are easily my favorite targets, but choosing them feels like cheating. Cook is a strong fallback target who also highlights prioritizing running back early in drafts this season. Cook is in his prime and led the league in rushing touchdowns in 2024 and rushing yards last season. He plays in one of the NFL’s best offenses (the Bills are favored in 14 games) and is expected to see increased work as a receiver in 2026. Also, backup Ray Davis is a nice insurance policy available late in drafts.

Fade: Justin Jefferson, WR, MIN (12)

Jefferson is one of the best wide receivers ever and is due for touchdown regression in 2026. Kyler Murray will be an upgrade over J.J. McCarthy. Jefferson is likely to have a nice bounce-back campaign in 2026. However, Murray is still a problem for his pass catchers — over the past three years, he has been the least accurate QB on balls thrown 10+ yards downfield and has ranked 49th among 55 quarterbacks in catchable target rate to players lined up outside. Murray rarely throws intermediate/deep over the middle of the field, where Jefferson led the NFL in fantasy scoring across 2023 and 2024. A Murray WR has reached 1,000 yards just once and has never had more than eight touchdowns.

Jefferson is rightfully getting ADP respect after he was fantasy’s WR49 over the final nine games last season, but he’s going a few picks too early.

Round 2 (Picks 13-24)

Target: Chase Brown, RB, CIN (14)

Brown will continue to lose some passing down work to Samaje Perine, but he could finish with first-round fantasy value regardless. Brown was the RB4 in expected fantasy points per game when Joe Burrow played at least 80% of the snaps last season, and he was fantasy’s RB3 over the final 11 games. Brown seemingly ran a bit hot with touchdowns down the stretch, but he was among the league leaders in designed red-zone targets. The Bengals are favored in a whopping 14 games and are planning to go under center more in 2026, which will be a big boost for Brown.

Brock Bowers (21) and Kenneth Walker (15) are other preferred targets in Round 2.

Fade: Josh Allen, QB, BUF (24)

Allen is one of my favorite players in the league (shoutout to Firebaugh, California), but he’s a huge opportunity cost as a second-round pick at a QB position that’s incredibly deep. Allen provides a safe floor and is a fine home-league pick, but in non-Superflex formats, waiting on quarterback seems like the shrewdest bet in 2026. I have Lamar Jackson ranked slightly ahead of Allen this season, and he’s going rounds later.

Round 3 (Picks 25-36)

Target: Malik Nabers, WR, NYG (27)

Nabers is certain to climb into the second round (he already has in NFFC drafts) if he continues to receive more positive health news. Most offseason reports were ominous and suggested Nabers had a real chance of opening the year on the PUP list, but they’ve recently been overwhelmingly positive. The reported date/timeline for his second (cleanup) surgery was apparently inaccurate.

Nabers remains risky (including a production dip) coming off such serious injuries (full meniscus repair), but that’s priced into his ADP — he would otherwise be a top-five pick this year. He put up the third-most fantasy points per game ever by a rookie WR while catching passes from Drew Lock and Tommy DeVito.

There’s real concern over a Matt Nagy offense, but Nabers is a generational talent. Target hog Wan’Dale Robinson is gone, and backup QB Jameis Winston has been a big boost to fantasy pass catchers in the past, should Jaxson Dart miss time. Nabers (or CMC) is this year’s highest risk/reward draft pick, but the potential payoff is worth a third-rounder.

Fade: Breece Hall, RB, NYJ (34)

Hall was fantasy’s RB27, and the RB20 in expected fantasy points per game, when the Jets had all their running backs active (four games) last season. Aaron Glenn has talked about using Braelon Allen in the passing game and has referred to New York’s backfield as a “three-headed monster” along with Isaiah Davis. Hall was admittedly given strong usage during New York’s first preseason game, and the groin injury he picked up is considered minor, but it’s hardly ideal and will likely keep him out until Week 1. The Jets’ offense should be improved, but New York is still projected to be the second-lowest scoring team in 2026. Hall has the talent to make this fade look foolish, but his situation remains an uphill battle.

Round 4 (Picks 37-48)

Target: Colston Loveland, TE, CHI (43)

Loveland erupted down the stretch of his rookie season, averaging 12 targets and 20 fantasy points over the final four games (including the playoffs). Loveland owned a team-high 33% target share when he was on the field with DJ Moore, Luther Burden and Rome Odunze (94 routes). Loveland averaged more expected fantasy points (19.1) over his final five games than Trey McBride (18.6) during his historical season.

With Moore gone, Loveland could erupt in Year 2. He has a legit chance at finishing as this year’s top fantasy tight end, so Loveland is a Round 4 target.

Fade: Cam Skattebo, RB, NYG (41)

Skattebo was fantasy’s RB8 during seven games in which he saw 50% or more of snaps during his rookie year, and he was the RB3 in expected fantasy points per game over that span. Skattebo ranked fifth in fantasy points per snap, so he’d be a target if not for the injury concern. Skattebo suffered an ankle dislocation, a fibular fracture and a ruptured deltoid that required the dreaded “TightRope” surgery. Skattebo’s injury was similar but even worse than Tony Pollard’s because of the dislocation and open fracture, although Skattebo suffered his 10 weeks earlier in the season.

Moreover, the new Giants’ coaching staff has been hinting at adding to their backfield since the draft, and New York signed Najee Harris after Tyrone Tracy’s blown block sent Jaxson Dart to the medical tent. Harris is coming off an Achilles tear, but it would hardly surprise if John Harbaugh and Nagy give the veteran strong usage. Skattebo may not be looking at nearly the same workload as last year coming off such serious injuries, so he’s a risk I’m avoiding in 2026.

Round 5 (Picks 49-60)

Target: Luther Burden, WR, CHI (56)

Burden’s ADP has fallen too far since his groin injury. It’s a relatively small sample, but Burden just recorded the second-most yards per route run by any rookie since 2010. He was the WR10 in fantasy points per target, and he’s set to see a big increase in volume with Moore in Buffalo. Burden was targeted on a whopping 34% of his routes with Moore off the field last season, and he also recorded a staggering 43% of Chicago’s receiving yardage when on the field as a 21-year-old.

Chicago was reportedly designing their offense around Burden before his injury, and Ben Johnson’s offenses finished first or second in total plays in each of the past three seasons. Targeting back-to-back Bears (Loveland and Burden) doesn’t sound conventional, but Johnson wants to have the highest-scoring offense ever. It’s understandable if you prefer not inviting injury to your roster entering the season, but Burden also possesses top-12 WR upside.

Fade: TreVeyon Henderson, RB, NE (58)

Henderson has massive fantasy upside, but it’s contingent on Rhamondre Stevenson going down, which is what it will take for the second-year RB to be worth this ADP. Stevenson averaged 12.8 fantasy points during games both backs were healthy last season, while Henderson averaged just 8.3. A healthy Henderson played only four snaps during the AFC Championship Game thanks in part to New England’s lack of trust in his pass protection. Stevenson was the Patriots’ best RB as a rusher and receiver last year, and Josh McDaniels’ scheme does Henderson no favors. He had a disappointing rookie season despite averaging the most yards before contact among all qualified backs. Henderson hasn’t shown major signs of improvement in Year 2, as hoped, and this remains Stevenson’s backfield.

I’ve drafted some Henderson in Round 6 of Best Ball, expecting some spike weeks, but he’s a boom/bust fade in Round 5.

Round 6 (Picks 61-72)

Target: Jayden Daniels, QB, WAS (64)

Daniels enters 2026 with elevated injury risk, which was further escalated by LT Laremy Tunsil’s likely season-ending injury. However, Daniels also has the upside to finish as fantasy’s QB1. He leads all quarterbacks in rush attempts per game and rush yards per game since entering the league despite playing through multiple leg injuries last year. Daniels suffered a sprained knee and hamstring injuries in Week 2 before dislocating his elbow in Week 9, so he was rarely even close to full strength in 2025.

In his first 25 full NFL starts, Daniels was fantasy’s QB3, despite seeing just 33 career dropbacks outside of shotgun, which has led to below-league-average rates of pre-snap motion (45.6%, 24th) and play action (24.8%, 18th). New OC David Blough will put Daniels under center more, opening up play action, where Washington’s QB has found success, and a big boost in scramble rate (22.5%), throughout his career.

Daniels will benefit from the addition of Stefon Diggs, along with the revamped scheme. He’s a quarterback to target during a buy-low window (especially in non-Superflex leagues where QB replacements run deep).

Fade: Carnell Tate, WR, TEN (70)

Cam Ward undoubtedly played better than his stats reflected last season, but he’ll need to show major improvement after averaging just 186.4 passing yards during his rookie campaign. The Titans play outdoors and enter with one of the league’s lowest projected scoring offenses. Wan’Dale Robinson has quietly been a strong target earner throughout his career, and he could easily lead Tennessee in receiving this season — since college, Ward has always been among the leaders in target rate to the slot.

Tate’s volume at Ohio State was affected by playing next to Jeremiah Smith, but more production would’ve been nice given all the attention Smith received. Tate is an easy fade if Marvin Harrison is available a round later.

Round 7 (Picks 73-84)

Target: Marvin Harrison, WR, ARI (73)

Harrison has disappointed over his first two years in the league, and Michael Wilson earned a bigger role in the offense while arguably outplaying MHJ last season. Consider this a buy-low opportunity on an elite prospect who’s no longer held back by Kyler Murray’s limitations. During five games with Jacoby Brissett when Harrison and Wilson were both healthy, MHJ averaged 7.6 targets and was fantasy’s WR21; Wilson averaged 5.4 targets and was fantasy’s WR59 over that span. Moreover, Harrison averaged 11 targets and was fantasy’s WR1 over two games with Brissett following Arizona’s bye, despite Harrison playing through an injury that required an emergency appendectomy. Small samples, for sure, but Harrison was the clear alpha over Wilson when both were on the field last season.

Harrison also dealt with two heel injuries and a concussion last year, and he said he made health his priority during the offseason. The Cardinals led the league in passing yards per game (282.7) with Brissett starting Weeks 6-18. Arizona is due for some regression when it comes to passing volume in 2026, but the Cardinals will likely pile up more garbage-time stats while underdogs in all but one game this year. Harrison could thrive as Mike LaFleur’s X receiver, but he’s also expected to be moved around Arizona’s offense.

There’s admittedly a strong likelihood rookie Carson Beck will be the starter during the crucial fantasy playoffs, but Harrison will benefit from facing a highly favorable schedule over Weeks 14-17 (NYJ,  at NO, LV). Let your leaguemates overreact to the numerous clips of Harrison committing drops this summer, and draft MHJ at his discounted rate.

Fade: Kyle Pitts, TE, ATL (74)

Pitts helped win Best Ball tournaments last season, but it required a Drake London injury. Pitts was fantasy’s TE1 with a 27.3% target share over five games without London, but he was the TE20 with a 19.3% target share over the other 12 games. Pitts’ first-read target share jumped from 14.2% to 34.5% after London’s injury. His yards per route run (TE35) was cut nearly in half with London on the field last season. Pitts gained 22% of his fantasy production in Week 15. He’s fantasy’s TE27 during games London has played over the past two seasons.

Pitts had his monster Week 15 last year with Kirk Cousins, and the Falcons enter 2026 with more questions at quarterback — it’s a battle between Tua Tagovailoa (sans Mike McDaniel) and Michael Penix (coming off his third ACL surgery). Kevin Stefanski undeniably has a strong history of providing TE volume, but Pitts benefitted from Zac Robinson’s extreme play calling; Pitts scored the second-most fantasy points on plays with pre-snap motion over the past two seasons, behind only Brock Bowers (H/T Jacob Gibbs).

Round 8 (Picks 85-96)

Target: Chris Godwin, WR, TB (88)

Godwin was fantasy’s WR2 in points per game in 2024 before suffering a season-ending injury. He struggled after returning from an ankle dislocation and fibula fracture, but he was the WR24, with strong underlying peripherals, to close last season (Weeks 13-17). Godwin unquestionably benefitted from Liam Coen’s system in 2024, but he’ll also get a boost from Tampa Bay’s new offensive coordinator — Zac Robinson implements a ton of pre-snap motion, and Godwin produced the league’s third-highest yards per route run rate over the past two years on such plays. Mike Evans is gone, and Emeka Egbuka enters the season likely dealing with a turf toe that could linger.

Godwin may not be as explosive as he once was, but he looked healthy while impressing throughout OTAs, and he’s crucially the favorite to play the slot. Godwin’s chances of finishing as Tampa Bay’s top fantasy scoring wideout have been underrated by the market, and his odds have leaped with Egbuka suffering a possibly debilitating injury.

Fade: RJ Harvey, RB, DEN (89)

Harvey will have fantasy value as Denver’s main receiving back, but he lacks upside with both J.K. Dobbins and the emerging rookie Jonah Coleman likely ahead of him for base-down work. Coleman has received praise from Denver’s coaching staff throughout training camp, and the offense may transition to running more under center in 2026 — Harvey had the fifth-fewest yards per carry (3.25) when not out of shotgun last year. Harvey was fantasy’s RB49 in expected points per game in 10 games with Dobbins last season, and the second-year back now has legit added competition in Denver’s backfield.



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