Taking stock of NWSL’s over and underperforming goal scorers

With all teams but Angel City FC having played at least 20 National Women’s Soccer League matches, two-thirds of the 2026 regular season is officially in the books. While Gotham is continuing its steady march towards the Shield with a table-topping 44 points, almost all of the league’s 16 teams remain in the hunt for the eight playoff spots.

The Utah Royals are steadily making their case for the most improved squad of 2026, sitting in fourth place after finishing 12th among the 14 teams who competed last season. Part of their success comes from a well-rounded offense that has produced a league-leading 37 goals in 21 matches.

But each matchweek in the NWSL seems to offer a reminder that the margins between sides are thin and that no result is guaranteed. (Congrats on the 3-2 win last weekend, Chicago!) While defensive performance and some of the unsung work in midfield are crucial too, the 444 goals scored are what we are giving a closer look.

Who are the players who have been the best this season at giving their teams that edge in the final third? And who has come up short when they’ve been gifted solid scoring chances? The Athletic takes a deeper dive into the league’s goal scorers.

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The overperformers

The NWSL doesn’t have a most improved player award. But if it did, the top contender would be North Carolina Courage midfielder Ashley Sanchez.

The 27-year-old moved to the top of the golden boot race with a brace against the Boston Legacy on Saturday. Her 13 goals in 2026 are more than double her previous single-season highs (five in both 2023 and 2024).

What makes Sanchez’s scoring even more impressive, though, is that she has tallied those 13 goals with an expected goal (xG) total of just 8.43, per American Soccer Analysis.

Put another way, Sanchez has produced four and a half more goals than would be expected by a player given shot opportunities in similar situations.

“I think being higher up, I obviously am getting a little bit more chances than maybe I have in years past,” Sanchez recently shared on an episode of the “Full Time” podcast. “But I just feel like I’m in a really good spot for what I think I’m best at on the field.”

The Denver Summit’s Janine Sonis has been almost equally adept at making the most of her chances, outpacing her 3.50 expected goals to find the net eight times thus far this season.

The fullback has been lethal from the penalty spot, converting all three of her attempts, but she’s been productive in open play as well. Sonis also has four assists, many of which have been timely, including setting up Yazmeen Ryan for an equalizer against the San Diego Wave that earned Denver a point in a 1-1 draw on Aug. 14.

Source: American Soccer Analysis (08-24-2026)

And in the preceding match, the Canadian international converted on a free kick in second-half stoppage time to hand the Summit a 2-1 victory over Utah in the Continental Divide rivalry match.

Another strong performer has been Houston forward Kat Rader. With nine goals, outperforming her 5.55 xG, the 22-year-old is one of the leading contenders for NWSL rookie of the year.

Rader netted a pair against Chicago on Aug. 19th, including a goal that showcased her calm under pressure. In the 42nd minute, she received a pass in the 18-yard box from Clarissa Larisey and sidestepped a sliding tackle before unleashing a shot into the top-right corner.

The Dash currently sit in 10th place but are just two points back of a playoff position – thanks in part to Rader’s nose for the net.

The underperformers

There are more than 200 players who have played at least one minute this season and have not scored, per American Soccer Analysis. But for all of Gotham goalkeeper Ann-Katrin Berger’s talents, are you really expecting her to convert on her 0.01 xG?

More seriously, San Diego forward Ludmila has played over 1,500 minutes across 20 matches this season and has scored just twice. With 6.15 expected goals, she has been one of the least effective attackers at converting her chances.

And Ludmila hasn’t succeeded in setting up her teammates, either, with no assists to her name in 2026. The Wave will look for more production from her down the stretch – especially with fellow Brazilian Dudinha still out with injuries to her ACL and meniscus.

Another forward who has struggled to make the most of her opportunities is Gotham’s Jordynn Dudley. The first-year player is not shy, having taken 44 shots. But despite landing 21 of those attempts on target, she has converted just twice.

Fortunately for Gotham, its stingy defense has allowed only 13 goals in 21 matches, which means that the team can afford to be patient with the rookie. Dudley has also produced three assists and can look forward to fixtures against high-conceding teams like Chicago and Louisville in September.

Source: American Soccer Analysis (08-24-2026)

Of course, players can score lots of goals and still fall short of what a statistical analysis might predict. Take, for instance, Aïssata Traoré, who has scored six times for Boston but falls over three goals short of her 9.11 xG.

Traoré has already established her legacy — aww, c’mon… it was right there! — with the Swans faithful after scoring Boston’s first goal in club history on March 28. The Malian striker also has a penchant for drama, as she showcased in finding a second-half stoppage-time equalizer against North Carolina in the Legacy’s last match.

However, Traoré is seventh in the NWSL in shots taken (50) but only tied for 14th in goals. Playing for a team that needs more scoring against upcoming opponents like the Royals and the Washington Spirit, there is still room for Traoré to improve.

The next two names on this list may come as a surprise, given Croix Bethune and Sam Kerr are virtually NWSL royalty. But Bethune more than makes up for any gaps in her goal scoring with nine assists for Kansas City — tied for the highest total in the league — while Kerr is still settling in with Gotham after joining them in late June from Chelsea.

The exactly-what-you-would-expect performers

One of the joys of diving into a table of expected goals statistics is finding those players who line up perfectly with their predictions. This includes, of course, goalkeepers who have never taken a shot and have both zero goals and zero xG.

What’s more interesting, though, are two players who have exactly one goal and 1.00 xG: Portland’s Marie Müller and Louisville’s Arin Wright.

And before you ask, neither of those goals came from the penalty spot. Most expected goals models will peg such attempts at between 0.75 and 0.80 xG.

As it turns out, the regularity of Müller’s and Wright’s expected goals differentials is, in fact, the statistical anomaly.