Super Bowl odds: Rams still favored while Bears, Giants, Steelers jump up the board

Major questions face the preseason the Super Bowl favorite Los Angeles Rams only a week into the 2026 NFL season following a blowout loss to the San Francisco 49ers in Australia.

As if an embarrassing Week 1 defeat to an NFC West rival in an international showcase game wasn’t enough, Los Angeles announced on Sunday that reigning Defensive Player of the Year Myles Garrett — the team’s major offseason acquisition — will miss at least four weeks on injured reserve to recover from knee surgery.

After enduring a nightmare opening week, it felt like the sky might be falling for the Rams after a dream offseason. But through all the hysterics and hot takes, BetMGM barely dropped the Rams in the Super Bowl winner odds — and they still remain the favorites. Los Angeles (+650) fell only slightly from its +500 preseason perch while the contenders behind the Rams, the Buffalo Bills (+900), Baltimore Ravens (+1000) and Seattle Seahawks (+1100), didn’t gain much ground after solid Week 1 victories.

Super Bowl odds

What history says about Super Bowl favorites that lose Week 1

Los Angeles maintaining the pole position is a strong early vote of confidence that reigning MVP Matthew Stafford and a loaded supporting cast will turn it around. Defensive tackle Aaron Donald’s return should also help offset the absence of Garrett as the new-look Los Angeles defense finds its footing. The Rams also have history on their side: four of the five previous preseason Super Bowl favorites or co-favorites to lose during Week 1 still made the playoffs.

The 2010 Indianapolis Colts, 2015 Seahawks, 2017 Patriots and 2023 Kansas City Chiefs all made the playoffs after losing the opener as preseason Super Bowl favorites, with Kansas City eventually winning the title and New England falling just short to Philadelphia in Super Bowl LII.

Preseason favorites and co-favorites actually have a surprising tendency to lose during Week 1 — including three times in the last four seasons — though it’s worth noting that, just last season, the Ravens went from preseason Super Bowl co-favorites to an unlikely collapse after losing in the opening week and eventually finishing 8-9.

While Baltimore suffered a humiliating downfall, injuries to key players and a difficult early schedule aided in the Ravens’ undoing. Two-time MVP Lamar Jackson missed four early games and Baltimore never recovered from an atrocious 1-5 start.

The NFC West looks like a gauntlet once again with defending champion Seattle and San Francisco positioned for strong seasons. Life in the NFL changes quickly year-over-year, but Los Angeles can take comfort knowing their remaining schedule only includes eight more games against playoff teams from last season.

The injury to Garrett, arguably the league’s best pass rusher, lingers as a long-term concern for Los Angeles and its true ceiling. But as long as Stafford remains healthy, Los Angeles should continue to get the benefit of the doubt.

With its impressive win to start the season, San Francisco (+1400) jumped from +1700 odds and into a tie for fifth with Kansas City (+1400). Injuries will once again be a storyline to follow for the Niners going forward after multiple recent seasons were derailed by missing star players. But an early win over Los Angeles and a positive start from new wide receiver Mike Evans gives San Francisco early optimism for a big season.

Bears, Giants, Steelers among early movers

Although the early-season focus tends to stay with the major contenders, last season’s championship matchup between the Seahawks and Patriots showed that there’s still plenty of time for other teams to make a serious move.

Entering Week 2 last season, Seattle was tied for 20th at +8000 odds, while New England was 25th at +12500. Both teams went from afterthoughts to serious contenders in a short period of time.

There wasn’t a lot of major movement among secondary contenders following Week 1. But after putting up a Madden-like 59 points on the road against the Carolina Panthers, the Chicago Bears (+2000) are quickly gaining steam.

Among a glut of intriguing postseason contenders, Chicago elevated from 15th in the preseason at +2500 odds to a tie for ninth at +2000 odds after its Week 1 blowout — with quarterback Caleb Williams becoming a top-three MVP contender in the process.

In coach Ben Johnson’s second season, the Bears possess an explosive offense capable of putting up points in a hurry. It’s hard to say how Chicago’s defense might look facing elite competition after giving up 38 points to Carolina. Even if Chicago’s defense gives up some big plays, other teams will have to keep pace with the Bears and an emerging Williams.

The New York Giants and Pittsburgh Steelers (both +5000) also both made noticeable climbs after Week 1 wins. Riding high after a Sunday night victory over the NFC East rival Dallas Cowboys, the Giants offense is off to a promising start behind second-year signal caller Jaxson Dart. Climbing from +6600 preseason odds, they get an early test in Week 2 when they fly cross-country for a Monday night showdown with the Rams. Should New York get past Los Angeles, its next four matchups are winnable, all coming against teams that missed the playoffs last season.

Pittsburgh jumped from +8000 odds on the heels of a home win over Atlanta. Overcoming a sluggish start from quarterback Aaron Rodgers, the Steelers defense looked strong despite the injury absence of star cornerback Joey Porter Jr. Similar to the Giants, the Steelers face a stiffer test in Week 2 when they take on the Patriots on the road.