Sergei Bobrovsky is the big risky splash the Leafs didn’t need

How much risk is too much risk?

The Maple Leafs gambled on their new general manager, gambled on their new head coach (to some degree), and gambled on a 30-year-old defenceman with one great NHL season to his name with an eight-year contract.

And now they’re gambling on the most volatile position in the sport by signing the soon-to-be-38-year-old Sergei Bobrovsky, coming off the worst season of his career, to a three-year contract worth $21 million.

Is he worth the gamble?

Bobrovsky has obviously been a great goalie in the NHL since his career began with the Philadelphia Flyers almost 16 years ago. He’s won two Vezina trophies as the league’s top netminder and backstopped the Florida Panthers to back-to-back Stanley Cups. He has won the seventh-most regular-season games in NHL history (two more than Leafs great Curtis Joseph). He will have a plaque in the Hall of Fame some day.

But what he was and what he appears to be now are two different things.

The Leafs, led by new GM John Chayka and director of goaltending scouting and development (and former Bobrovsky teammate) Curtis McEhlinney, are betting that he can still be what was — and not the goalie in decline he appeared to be most recently.

Bobrovsky was in the running for worst starter in the NHL last season.

His career-worst .877 save percentage ranked 26th among the 27 goaltenders who started at least 40 games, topping only Kevin Lankinen (.873) who played for the worst team in the league.

Even Joseph Woll (.899) and Anthony Stolarz (.893), albeit in fewer games, stopped a better chunk of the shots they faced than Bobrovsky while playing behind arguably the NHL’s worst defensive team.

Unlike the Leafs, the Panthers weren’t giving up an avalanche of shots every night. The opposite in fact. Bobrovsky faced only 24.9 shots per 60 minutes, the fifth-lightest workload of any regularly used goalie (minimum 1,500 minutes), just in front of two of the Carolina Hurricanes’ often-bored netminders.

Setting all of that aside as one bad year, during one troubled season for the Panthers following three straight (and obviously taxing) visits to the Stanley Cup final, would be a little easier if Bobrovsky weren’t turning 38 on Sept. 20 with a ton of kilometres already logged.

Bobrovsky has made almost 800 regular-season starts, eighth-most since 1990. (Plus another 111 starts in the playoffs.)

The seven goalies in front of him over that 36-year period had mostly lacklustre results at this age or beyond.

• Martin Brodeur played 50-plus games of below-average hockey at age 38 and 39 before his workload plummeted at age 40.
• Marc-Andre Fleury was slightly above average playing only 45 games at age 38 before sinking to sub .900 in the two seasons that followed. Then he was done.
• Roberto Luongo was sensational at age 38, with a .929 save percentage, but played only 35 games. He had an .899 save percentage the following season and then retired.
• Joseph was basically average playing 60 games at age 38 for the Coyotes, below average the following season, and done, eventually, after 21 games as a 41-year-old with the Leafs.
• Henrik Lundqvist retired after playing 30 games as a 37-year-old.
• Jonathan Quick was and is a backup.

The one real exception and someone the Leafs may have in mind here: Ed Belfour, another two-time Vezina winner who struggled for Dallas as a 36-year-old only to re-emerge as a Vezina candidate at age 38 and 39 in Toronto (before falling off at age 40).

Those teams were captained by Mats Sundin, who’s now a senior adviser in the front office.

All bets are off, though, for goalies in Bobrovsky’s age bracket.

And the ones that do keep hanging around usually aren’t asked to play 50 games, which the Leafs will presumably seek from Bobrovsky next season.

In fact, only two goalies aged 38 or older have started 50 games or more since the start of the 2007-08 season when that tracking became available: Brodeur (twice) and Dwyane Roloson (twice).

Roloson was actually pretty good for the Oilers at 38 (.915 save percentage) and not bad for the Islanders and Lightning at 41, but he was a late bloomer who hadn’t played nearly as many games as Bobrovsky and did so for bad teams.

With a similar resume to Bobrovsky’s, Belfour feels like the ideal here for the Leafs.

One key difference: There is a salary cap now.

And so it’s not just about betting on Bobrovsky to rediscover past form at an advanced age. It’s about the decision to dedicate an additional $3.3 million salary cap dollars to him over Woll, who was dealt to Philadelphia last month.

Put another way, the Leafs decided they would rather pay Bobrovsky $7 million a year for the next three seasons than give Woll $3.67 million a year for the next two. Money spent, or overspent, is money that’s unavailable to spend elsewhere.

And the Leafs have much bigger needs than in goal.

They lose some flexibility here.

Also: Bobrovsky is almost 10 years older than Woll, who turns 28 later this month.

Is he worth that much more, at this age, than Woll? Would the Leafs have been better off holding Woll and using the extra money to fill holes elsewhere? Or, with all that money to spend this summer, is Bobrovsky worth the difference?

Bobrovsky makes 50 starts every year. Woll has made 40 starts only once in a career that’s just getting started.

There’s no getting around that Woll was in and out of the lineup — from a litany of injuries, including one that kept him out of Game 7 in the 2024 playoffs, to the leave of absence that kept him out last fall.

But is he really a worse bet to deliver solid-to-good goaltending next season over 40 to 50 games than a 38-year-old version of Bobrovsky? Especially at just over half the price.

Had he not missed those 18 games to a leave of absence, Woll probably adds another eight or nine starts and ends up close to 50 last season. And while his save percentage wasn’t great, he actually allowed eight goals fewer than expected while being literally the league’s busiest goalie on a nightly basis.

It wasn’t just last season either. Woll has outperformed Bobrovsky in the last two seasons, albeit in fewer games, which certainly can’t be discounted.

And while Bobrovsky has absolutely been a workhorse throughout his long NHL career, at some point soon his ability to play that many games will come to an end, either because he gets hurt or because his performance is no longer worthy of that much action.

Chayka’s front office has proven to be the opposite of Brad Treliving’s — all risk all the time.

For all the potential volatility here, I can also see the logic.

For the Leafs, it’s all about today. About trying to get back into the playoffs next season. About keeping Auston Matthews happy and hopefully around for the long term.

Bobrovsky, they clearly feel, gives them a better chance of doing that. And a better chance, if they do get into the playoffs, of leading them on a deep run. His track record towers over Woll’s at this point.

Keeping the deal to three years also limits their long-term exposure.

A rebuild could be around the corner anyway if things don’t turn around in a big way next season.

They might be right about him, too.

It wouldn’t be that surprising to see Bobrovsky bounce back to some degree next season (to right around league average perhaps), especially if new coach Jim Hiller instills a stingier level of defensive play and Chayka continues to improve the defence (with maybe Zach Werenski).

The Leafs should be able to keep Stolarz, Bobrovsky’s former tandem-mate in Florida, to the 25 to 30 game workload he appears suited for. Dennis Hildeby and Artur Akhtyamov loom as options in the case of injury.

And you can bet the Leafs are leaning on McElhinney’s experience as a teammate of Bobrovsky’s for three seasons in Columbus. He will presumably have some insight into who Bobrovsky is and what he’s all about.

But it’s hard to call a resurgence the likely outcome here.

Not for an older goalie coming off the worst year of his career.

The likelier outcome is that Bobrovsky is just, well, old and the Leafs have hitched their wagon to him until 2029.

—Stats and research courtesy of Natural Stat Trick, Hockey Reference, Stat Head, Puck Pedia and Evolving Hockey