NFL decision-makers’ 2026 survey: MVP predictions, Caleb Willams vs. Drake Maye and more

Since the start of training camp, The Athletic has been polling general managers, high-ranking executives, head coaches, coordinators and other coaches for our fifth annual survey about the upcoming season.

We’ve got 20 voters on the panel this year, and all spoke on the condition of anonymity to openly discuss rival players and teams. A few voters skipped certain questions, so there are categories with fewer than 20 votes.

We’ve got a lot of ground to cover, so let’s get to it:

Allen (2022) and Mahomes (2023, 2024) have now won this vote twice, though neither has taken it in a year when they’ve also won the real MVP. Burrow claimed this vote’s top honor last year.

It’s hard to argue with Allen, the 2024 MVP who is about to play his first game as a 30-year-old.

“He’s a freaking freak,” a head coach said. “The plays he makes, the things he does, you can’t account for. He’s the biggest dude on the field, and the ball is like a little peanut in his hands. Some of the things he would do in crunch time, it’s like, ‘Where did that come from? How do you do these things?’ I don’t know if there’s a better single football player in the NFL in terms of putting a team on his back.”

Stafford, the reigning MVP, didn’t receive any votes last year in this category. However, it’s a pretty strong endorsement to select him to go back-to-back, which hasn’t happened since Aaron Rodgers achieved the feat in 2020-21.

Allen was an obvious choice after the MVP vote, and Mahomes was still an easy choice for most of the panel despite the ACL recovery. Still, it’s notable there’s at least some hesitation as the league awaits his performance after a speedy return.

Stafford’s outcome was the stunner.

“The combination of him and (Rams head coach Sean) McVay is lethal,” an executive said.

Throughout different variations of this question in previous iterations of this poll, Stafford had only been mentioned once. Of course, he was terrific in 2025, and the Rams appear to still be ascending. Opinions are allowed to evolve as evidence and circumstances change.

Plus, Mahomes is coming back from a torn ACL, and Burrow and Jackson have dealt with numerous injuries in recent years.

“It’s crazy how much it changes,” a general manager said.

QB draft classes have been a rollercoaster of late, but there are still a handful of potential franchise cornerstones among them. Other eligible options essentially included Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, Cam Ward, Jaxson Dart, Tyler Shough and Fernando Mendoza.

Maye and Williams revealed their true potential last season, as each of their franchises found coaching upgrades. Maye finished second in the MVP voting and led the Patriots to a surprising Super Bowl appearance, while Williams led the league with six fourth-quarter comebacks and the Bears’ first playoff victory since the 2010 season.

As evidenced by the vote, Maye is further along in his development, but the Williams backers believed another jump is on the horizon.

“After this year,” a head coach said, “it will be Caleb.”

Daniels has become the forgotten man in the equation after his sophomore season was shortened to seven starts due to mounting injuries. Remember, he was viewed as an MVP candidate a year ago.

“Daniels still has the most true talent,” a head coach said.

Garrett was just traded to the Rams for a package that exceeds the value of two first-rounders, so he was a layup. But even still, the two-time Defensive Player of the Year didn’t exactly run away with this category.

Anderson, the No. 3 pick in 2023, is one of the league’s blossoming young stars. His 23 sacks over the last two seasons ranked sixth in the NFL, and he had the most in that span by anyone under age 25.

“Two first-round picks for him,” an assistant coach said, “Oh yeah, you can do that.”

It was notable to hear Murphy, Robinson and Simmons mentioned, as they don’t play premium positions from the standpoint of asset management. But it speaks to their impact.

“Jeffery Simmons is a top 10 player in the NFL,” an executive said.

Not everyone loved this question.

“If I had to?” a head coach responded. “I wouldn’t give up two first-round picks for anybody.”

The “defensive closer” term has picked up steam of late, as teams scour the planet for alphas who can end the game on defense. With upper-level quarterbacks able to put so much pressure on their opponents, it takes a special defender who can answer the challenge.

Garrett, the best defensive player of the post-Aaron Donald era, fittingly goaded the legend out of retirement. And how important was that? The two Donald voters had selected him weeks prior to his official return, viewing an on-the-fence, still-retired Donald as among the game’s best defenders. That’s respect.

Garrett has 125.5 career sacks, ranked 20th all time and third among active players. Though the Browns didn’t win much in Garrett’s nine seasons, he had 34.5 sacks in the fourth quarter. He figures to be more of a menace with a Rams team that is sure to be leading a few games in the fourth quarter this season.

“Myles hasn’t been in that situation a lot, but I think he will be,” a head coach said. “I don’t see how he doesn’t show up in those moments.”

Anderson also dominated the vote.

“He’s a psychopath, in a good way,” an assistant coach said. “He’ll rip your face off.”

“I’ve got a ton of respect for what they’re doing in Houston,” another head coach said. “I think (Anderson) is a problem.”

Bonitto has 27.5 sacks over the last two seasons, second most to Garrett (37).

“Whenever I’m watching Denver in a close game,” a GM said, “it seems like there he is, ‘Oh, another strip-sack.’”

Watt might not be at his absolute peak anymore, but everyone knows who is raring to make a play in clutch situations.

“They always make an explosive play when they’re rolling, and T.J. Watt is the guy who always did it,” a third coach said. “It’s incredible.”

Quarterback Fernando Mendoza, the No. 1 pick, opens the season behind Kirk Cousins, and it’s unclear when he’ll debut. Virtually everyone on the panel acknowledged that factor, so the result of the poll was not an indictment of his potential.

Even still, the voters struggled to land on Love. The Cardinals are going to struggle, and Love could serve up a little Ashton Jeanty déjà vu.

“It’s tough because I don’t know that (the Cardinals) are going to be very good,” an assistant coach said of the No. 3 pick. “But he’s going to get the ball a ton.”

This wasn’t the most celebrated draft class in memory, so beauty was in the eye of the beholder with these responses. Love won because he was widely viewed as the premier offensive skill player in the draft.

One big takeaway from this question: People love Johnson. The No. 27 overall pick only got one vote because it could be tough sledding for Dolphins cornerbacks this season, but Johnson elicited strong reactions from the panel of coaches and executives.

“We loved Chris Johnson,” said a head coach who had hoped his team would select him.

Macdonald has both quickly and genuinely earned the respect of his peers as one of the best head coaches in the league. Of course, he’s been on the job for two years and already has a Super Bowl, but it’s also apparent the Seahawks are building something that’s set up for sustainability.

Within that, Macdonald’s peers also envy the way he’s pulling levers in the fourth quarter, to the point where he finished tied with McVay. Lock in those two NFC West foes for a pair of must-see games each season for the foreseeable future.

This wasn’t limited to head coaches, though McDaniels and Spagnuolo were the only coordinators who earned votes. And if this were a team vote, the Patriots’ duo of Vrabel and McDaniels would have clocked in at No. 1 with a combined 4.5 votes.

“Vrabel just knows how to manage all those situations,” a coach said.

Spagnuolo will go down as one of the great defensive coordinators of all time.

“Spags is a big-game coach,” a head coach said. “Over the years in Kansas City, teams are trying to come back in the fourth quarter trying to beat Pat and the Chiefs. And I think Spags is always up to the challenge.”

Apparently, we’ll also be excluding Johnson in the 2027 vote.

Johnson ignited Caleb Williams in their first year together and validated his ascension into the spotlight as Lions offensive coordinator. The Bears ranked ninth in scoring — their first time in the top half of the league since 2018 — because Johnson fit a talented cast of pieces into place.

The vote was nearly a dead heat from there. Notably, the top had more of a veteran flavor with Reid and McDaniels over Coen and Kubiak. Payton still drew votes despite ceding play-calling duties this season to offensive coordinator Davis Webb.

Not only did Macdonald run away with this, but he was the only head coach who got a vote. (Flores, Fangio and Spagnuolo have been head coaches in the past, of course.)

Macdonald’s system really turned heads as the Ravens defensive coordinator in 2023, leading to his jump to the Seahawks. His peers noticed the carryover to Seattle in his first season, but it really exploded in 2025. The Seahawks can disguise their looks as well as anyone, and they allowed the fewest points in the league.

Macdonald has an incredible way of teaching complex concepts in digestible ways. He is efficient with his messaging and workload, and the players feel empowered.

Macdonald is viewed as the best defensive mind in the league, and he’s really just getting started.