Messi huge favorite to win Golden Boot and Ballon d’Or after reaching World Cup final

Lionel Messi’s remarkable campaign gathered even greater momentum after Argentina booked their place in the World Cup final, with the 39-year-old now emerging as the clear-cut favorite to finish as the tournament’s Golden Boot winner and also reclaim the Ballon d’Or.

Argentina’s 2-1 semi-final victory over England may not have seen Messi add to his own goal tally, but the superstar forward was once again the game’s defining creative force, setting up goals for Enzo Fernandez and Lautaro Martinez to send the holders into Sunday’s showpiece against Spain.

That contribution leaves Messi with a return of eight goals and four assists at the tournament, putting him in pole position in the Golden Boot race.

Messi is currently a huge favorite on both prediction markets and traditional sportsbooks.

At Kalshi, Messi is currently listed at 59 percent to win the Golden Boot.

At FanDuel Sportsbook, Messi sits at -200 to finish as the competition’s leading scorer. His nearest challenger is France captain Kylian Mbappe at +150, after their semi-final defeat to Spain.

Mbappe also has eight goals but trails Messi on assists, with three to the Argentine’s four.

The France forward could yet draw level or move ahead in the third-place play-off against England, although there is always the possibility Didier Deschamps rests key players after their semi-final disappointment.

England captain Harry Kane, meanwhile, sits on six goals and one assist but is a distant +8000 outsider to claim the Golden Boot, highlighting just how firmly the race is viewed as one between Messi and Mbappe.

The World Cup has also transformed the Ballon d’Or picture.

Mbappe and Kane have been widely considered as leading contenders, while Barcelona’s teenage sensation Lamine Yamal has strengthened his credentials by helping the Catalan club win La Liga.

But the balance has shifted dramatically as Argentina progressed.

Messi’s influence means he is now considered the -125 favorite to win what would be a ninth Ballon d’Or, while Yamal sits at +175 after guiding Spain to the World Cup final.

Despite Spain’s success, Yamal’s individual numbers simply cannot match Messi’s impact on the biggest stage. The 19-year-old has contributed one goal and no assists throughout the tournament, whereas Messi has directly contributed to 12 goals with eight strikes and four assists.

If Spain lift the trophy, Yamal could still make a case with a spectacular final performance. But as things stand, Messi’s influence has been on an entirely different level, producing decisive moments in knockout rounds and carrying Argentina to within one victory of back-to-back World Cup titles.

The World Cup has also dented the hopes of other Ballon d’Or challengers.

Harry Kane, whose England side were eliminated by Argentina in the semi-finals, has drifted to +650 despite another strong international tournament, while Mbappe has fallen to +1200 after France’s defeat.

Messi’s club form has also strengthened his overall case. The Argentine inspired Inter Miami to MLS Cup glory last season, adding another major trophy to a campaign that was already building a compelling Ballon d’Or résumé before the World Cup even began.

Should he complete the job in the final, it would cap another extraordinary chapter in one of football’s greatest careers.

Messi first won the Ballon d’Or in 2009 and most recently claimed the award in 2023. An unprecedented ninth crown would move him even further clear of his long-time rival Cristiano Ronaldo, who has won the prize five times, most recently in 2017.

The latest World Cup has only widened that gap. Ronaldo, now 41, scored three goals without registering an assist before Portugal were eliminated by Spain in the round of 16. Messi, two years younger at 39, is instead preparing for another World Cup final and closing in on yet more footballing history.