Matthew Stafford, Kyren Williams are fantasy football steals, plus Ja’Kobi Lane hype

Economy World


It’s rare for fantasy industry consensus to fall completely out of sync with Las Vegas expectations for a team and its players, but we may have such a situation developing with the Los Angeles Rams.

Sean McVay’s team is currently a tier-of-one favorite to win the Super Bowl (+550), plus they have the highest win total in the NFL (11.5). Last season, L.A.’s offense led the league in scoring, total yardage, passing yardage and yards per play, so you might assume the top of every fantasy expert’s cheat sheet would be loaded with Rams.

But you’d be wrong. Fantasy analysts are not so easily impressed.

As a community, we are aligned with Vegas on Puka Nacua … and no other member of this team. Nacua is the overall No. 2 wide receiver in terms of expert consensus rank (ECR), just behind Ja’Marr Chase. Sportsbooks collectively peg him as the fourth-most likely candidate to win Offensive Player of the Year. Nacua and Chase have the highest full-season reception totals, too. Perfect harmony between fantasy touts and oddsmakers, as you’d expect.

Nacua’s quarterback has not retained the interest of fantasy experts, however. Matthew Stafford, coming off a season in which he led the league in passing yardage (4,707) and passing touchdowns (46), is naturally among the sportsbook favorites to repeat as NFL MVP. He has the second-highest passing TD total (30.5) after Joe Burrow (32.5). Vegas loves him, as they should. Stafford is an actual wizard:

Following a legendary season in which Stafford finished as the QB3 in fantasy (and nearly topped the field), his industry-wide ECR is somehow only QB15. We’re basically pricing him as if 2025 never happened and cannot happen again. His ECR reflects only the possibility of performing at 2023-24 levels.

Most of us would agree Stafford is a clear regression candidate after delivering a career-best touchdown rate of 7.7%, but remember, he can regress quite a bit and still rank among the NFL leaders in the passing categories we most care about in fantasy. Regression doesn’t mean “do not draft.” Regression itself isn’t even an answer to an interesting question.

The important consideration, of course, is the level to which we might reasonably expect Stafford to slip, if he slips at all. Last year, he threw 12 more touchdown passes than the quarterback who finished second (Jared Goff) and 17 more than the passer who ranked fifth (Trevor Lawrence). If Stafford would have tossed 12 fewer touchdowns last season, he still would have ended the year as the QB7 in fantasy. It’s fair to note his complete lack of rushing contributions — not a small issue in the current era — but his passing upside is as high or higher than any other quarterback’s, a fact he just demonstrated emphatically.

Anyway, good luck reconciling Vegas assumptions about the Rams in 2026 with Stafford’s fantasy ECR. It’s nearly impossible to do. Davante Adams regression isn’t the answer because his Vegas receiving touchdown total is 9.5, yet his consensus rank is way down at WR24.

It’s not as if fantasy rankers are forecasting any sort of rushing surge for L.A. — we kind of hate Kyren Williams, too. Despite three consecutive seasons with top-eight positional finishes, Williams is now the RB15 in ECR, presumably on fears that Blake Corum will narrow the workload gap. Williams handled 295 touches to Corum’s 153 last season. Anyone who sincerely believes the Rams are aiming for a 50/50 backfield split in the year ahead should urgently jump on every possible Williams under and Corum over. Sportsbooks are offering rushing totals for Williams in the 950.5 to 999.5 range, with rushing TD totals of either 9.5 or 10.5. For Corum, the highest posted numbers are 675.5 rushing yards and 5.5 touchdowns.

So Vegas is telling us one thing about the 2026 Los Angeles Rams, while fantasy analysts seem to be implying something quite different. If you agree with the books and believe L.A. will continue to have an unstoppable offense, then Stafford sure looks like a screaming value. Williams is a gift as well.

Luther Burden injured in camp, shelved for the remainder of the preseason

The Burden injury news certainly isn’t great, but it could have been worse. After Burden limped away from practice on Saturday, the Bears kept us in the dark regarding his status for an uncomfortably long time. (Rude, but not unforgivably so.) On Monday, we finally learned that Burden had suffered a groin strain likely to sideline him through the preseason. His status for opening week is not yet etched in stone, but the current belief is that he should be available.

Ideally, a second-year breakout candidate like Burden would be available for the duration of training camp while preparing for an enhanced role in a complicated system, but if you were buying Burden at last week’s ADP … well, hey, you might get him at a discount in the weeks ahead. He’s still an explosive playmaker tied to an ascending squad. Hang in there, Burdenists.

Colston Loveland and Rome Odunze continue to shine in camp according to pretty much everyone, so it’s not as if Chicago was a one-note offense. Burden’s absence could lead to additional opportunities for rookie third-rounder Zavion Thomas to get reps with the varsity unit, so there’s a silver lining. Thomas is a burner with 4.28 speed and a gadgety skill set, likely to be featured in some of Ben Johnson’s wilder and more exotic designs.

Nicholas Singleton making noise in Titans camp

Singleton underwent surgery in February to repair a foot fracture, which was suboptimal timing for someone preparing to get drafted in April. It seems likely the injury impacted his draft stock, because he slipped to the fifth round, selected by the Tennessee Titans at pick No. 165. Singleton was also one of those complicated collegiate players who was more impressive as a junior than as a senior — perhaps another factor in his draft slide.

The offseason drumbeat on Singleton has certainly been positive, and the camp clips are telling a good (if incomplete) story, too:

Tennessee’s rushing hierarchy is not unsettled, of course. Tony Pollard is the unchallenged lead back, with Tyjae Spears in a supporting role. Both vets are entering the final years of their deals and either could become a deadline trade chip.

Singleton finds himself in an excellent spot in terms of future value, and it’s not too difficult to imagine a path to rookie fantasy relevance as well. He’s a priority Zero RB target, without question.

Ja’Kobi Lane is redefining what’s possible in the camp hype game

Look, maybe it’s all just irrelevant camp fluff. That’s probably the case. But we have levelheaded veteran Ravens reporters out here writing things about Lane that read like the first draft of a Hall of Fame argument:

It is absolutely true that Lane, a third-round rookie from USC, has been delivering daily highlights of the highest quality. Just look at this filthy one-hander.

The scouting reports on Lane leading up to April’s draft were not entirely glowing, but everyone agrees on his ability to win contested catches, often in spectacular ways. He’s 6-foot-4 with a 40-inch vertical, so he definitely presents a combination of athletic traits that cannot be found elsewhere in Baltimore’s receiving room. At this point, it would be a shocking development if he is not seeing immediate opportunities in the regular season. Lamar Jackson and head coach Jesse Minter both seem to be among the Lane zealots.