Is this World Cup now Europe v South America? Which giants fall today? Day 18 recap
Sunday was the strangest day of this World Cup, in that there was only one match, sandwiched between days with six and three respectively.
This was for scheduling reasons: no third-placed sides could have played on Sunday, given that the identity of the eight teams and their precise fixtures had only been decided on Saturday night.
It would have been impossible to organise fixtures between any other winners and runners-up while giving them a reasonable — and relatively similar — number of days since their final group stage fixture.
In the game that did happen, co-hosts Canada scored a stoppage-time winner to beat South Africa 1-0, with coach Jesse Marsch calling his players “Canadian heroes” in a post-game on-field speech.
Canada had never won a men’s World Cup game until this tournament and will now face Morocco or the Netherlands in the round of 16.
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Will knockout games signal end of the goal rush?
Canada versus South Africa doesn’t feel like a World Cup knockout game on paper, and wasn’t a very enthralling spectacle on the pitch.
One moment won it. In second-half stoppage time, a poor South African headed clearance fell to Stephen Eustaquio on the edge of the box, and he chested the ball down, let it bounce once, and produced a lovely dipping drive to take Canada through.
It was a lone piece of quality in an otherwise slow-burning match, which — as a preview of the knockout stage — felt a little worrying. Yes, this was only one match between sides unaccustomed to this stage of the competition, and those who aren’t considered among the serious contenders to win the World Cup.
Stephen Eustaquio was Canada’s matchwinner (Sarah Stier – FIFA/FIFA via Getty Images)
But after a free-flowing, open group stage with plenty of goals, there’s always a danger the competition declines in the knockout stage, when one risk is fatal. Teams play more defensively, tiredness creeps in, and players don’t want to over-exert themselves in case they have to play an additional 30 minutes of extra time. Let’s hope things are more exciting going forward.
Is it now Europe v South America?
Several recent international tournaments have produced a bracket that feels unreasonably lopsided. At Euro 2024, for example, arguably the four best sides were on one half of the quarter-finals: Spain, Germany, France and Portugal. The other side — Netherlands, Turkey, England, Switzerland — felt like a competition to determine who would finish runner-up, and so it proved.
Something similar happened at World Cup 2018. France, Brazil, Uruguay and Belgium were all fearsome teams on the top half of the draw. England, Sweden, Croatia and Russia? Not so much.
That hasn’t quite happened this time around; largely by design. For the first time, FIFA seeded this bracket so the top four seeds — France and Spain in the top half, Argentina and England in the bottom half — won’t meet until the semi-finals, assuming they won their groups. Which they did.
Nevertheless, the top half does seem trickier. It also features the Netherlands, Germany and Portugal, as well as the hosts United States. The bottom half is lacking in serious contenders; partly because Portugal finished runners-up rather than winners, so went into the top half, and partly as Uruguay didn’t qualify at all. It had been anticipated that they would meet their great rivals Argentina in the round of 32.
But what this draw has really thrown up is a rough Europe v South America situation. Of the eight favourites for the competition, France, Spain, Netherlands, Germany and Portugal are in the top half. Then there’s Argentina and Brazil in the bottom half, alongside the major exceptions to this rule: England.
Thomas Tuchel’s men will be expected to get past DR Congo in the round of 32. But their passage to the final might then be: Mexico in Mexico City, Brazil in Miami, Argentina in Atlanta. That looks incredibly difficult from a physical perspective, without even taking into account England’s unconvincing performances.
What to know about Monday’s games
Seventy-three games into World Cup 2026, this feels like the moment when the tournament truly takes off. Only one genuinely prominent nation has been eliminated — Uruguay — and even they have seemed in poor shape for a couple of years. Tomorrow, two genuinely good team will head home.
Brazil versus Japan kicks off the day. Five-time champions Brazil haven’t won this tournament for 24 years, but nevertheless remain the grandest, most fabled World Cup side. Japan, who eternally seem on the verge of a World Cup breakthrough but have never won a knockout tie, are more cohesive, and will almost certainly have spells of pressure. But can they turn their promising possession play into goals?
That is followed by Germany against Paraguay. The four-time champions haven’t impressed thus far, but this is a gentle first knockout game against a limited — if resilient — Paraguay who are very much underdogs. If you struggle to watch three matches intently in one day, this is the time to take a hydration break.
Finally, it’s the Netherlands against Morocco. This is a clash between the three-time runners-up and the side which enjoyed an excellent run to the semi-finals four years ago in Qatar. There are several links between them too.
Midfielder Sofyan Amrabat and full-backs Noussair Mazraoui and Anass Salah-Eddine were all born in the Netherlands but play for Morocco; Salah-Eddine represented Dutch youth sides and only switched his allegiance last year. There will be some corners of the Netherlands that will be cheering on Morocco.
This is the first round of 32 in a World Cup. Reducing the field to 16 used to be done through a group stage. Now, the underdogs have a one-off chance to record a surprise win.
Today’s games
Brazil v Japan (1pm ET; 6pm BST)
Germany v Paraguay (4:30pm ET; 9:30pm BST)
Netherlands v Morocco (9pm ET; 2am BST)