Iran warns of Hormuz ‘red line,’ retaliation to Trump’s strike threats
Pro-government supporters stand next to a banner depicting a portrait of Iran’s late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during a nightly rally in Tehran, Iran, on July 12, 2026.
Morteza Nikoubazl | Nurphoto | Getty Images
Iran warned Thursday that it would “crush” key targets in the Middle East if U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats to target the country’s infrastructure in the coming days are carried out.
Trump said in a Tuesday evening interview with Fox News that U.S. forces would target key Iranian infrastructure next week if a diplomatic breakthrough is not achieved.
“Next week it gets really bad for them because next week comes the power plants,” he said. “Next week comes the bridges. We’re going to knock out all their power plants. We’re going to knock out all their bridges unless they get to the table and negotiate.”
In a statement published on Telegram on Thursday morning, a spokesperson for Iran’s top military command said that if Trump’s threats were implemented “everything that is still intact … that is, all the infrastructure in the region – will be crushed under the steel blows of the powerful armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran; so that no trace of them remains and it is as if they never existed in the first place.”
They added that “under no circumstances and in no way will we allow America, as a foreign and extra-regional country, to interfere in the Strait of Hormuz.”
“This is Iran’s invincible red line,” the spokesperson said.
The Strait, a waterway in the Middle East that’s critical to the shipping of oil and other key commodities, has become the focal point of fighting between American and Iranian forces.
Armed conflict has escalated in recent days after the U.S. launched strikes against Iran earlier this week in retaliation for commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz coming under attack.
Tehran, meanwhile, has launched attacks on multiple Gulf countries.
U.S. Central Command carried out a fresh wave of attacks on Iran overnight that concluded at 9 p.m. ET.
“U.S. forces struck Iranian command centers, air defense sites, missile and drone capabilities, and coastal surveillance facilities to further degrade Iran’s ability to threaten innocent mariners crewing commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz,” Centcom said in a statement posted on X.
“CENTCOM used precision munitions to hit targets in multiple locations including Bandar Abbas.”
The spokesperson for Iran’s Foreign Ministry also warned of retaliation on Wednesday.
“Our hands are not tied,” he said at an event in Tehran, according to state-affiliated media. “Our fighters will respond with full force and power to US aggressions, and in other clauses of the memorandum, wherever we had reciprocal commitments, we have not implemented them.”
Last week, Trump said the ceasefire agreed between the two sides last month was “over.” On Wednesday, he told Fox Business News that Iranian officials wanted to meet with American delegates for fresh negotiations.
Renewed hostilities have driven a rebound in oil prices this week
Hostilities face potential stalemate
Oil prices fell on Thursday morning, with Brent crude futures for September delivery shedding 0.5% to trade at $84.42 per barrel by 4:30 a.m. ET. Front-month U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down almost 0.2% at $79.47 a barrel.
Clark H. Summers, adjunct professor of government and political philosophy at North Carolina’s Belmont Abbey College, told CNBC he believes the current situation will most likely result in a stalemate.
“The U.S. will continue to make precision air strikes to destroy [drones] and surface-to-surface missile launch sites as Iran pops-up to launch,” he said in an email. “Also, the U.S. will act to defeat air attacks launched against neutral shipping in the Persian Gulf. I expect these actions … to be very effective at the tactical level, but ineffective strategically as long as Iran can continue to produce drones and missiles (or has them stockpiled).”
Summers added that Trump’s recent proposals to slap a 20% fee on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz – something the president has since walked back from – strongly suggest the Trump administration is aware the costs of the war are undermining public support for the president.
“He has tread carefully around the War Powers Act, and seems to be well aware that current U.S. industrial and logistics capabilities are not able to sustain this conflict on an open-ended basis (probably not through the midterm elections, and certainly not through ’28,” Summers said.
However, he noted that as long as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps remains in power in Iran and “can crawl out of the rubble alive,” they will be able to claim victory.
“Only a serious ground threat will destroy the IRGC as a governing body and compel it to accept surrender,” Summers told CNBC. “Such a threat is extremely unlikely to come from conventional U.S. forces; such an operation is beyond the current capabilities of the U.S. Army and USMC combined.”
A raid on the critical Kharg Island to tighten a blockade on Iranian oil exports may help achieve a negotiated peace deal, Summers said, “but it is unlikely that the IRGC will honor any agreement.”
Richard de Meo, founder and CEO of Attara, a London-based brokerage firm specializing in commodity hedging, told CNBC that markets had become increasingly desensitized to developments in the U.S.-Iran war.
“Across the corporate sector, there is a growing sense of fatigue in response to the sheer volume of geopolitical risks, with some businesses taking false comfort from relatively range-bound market conditions and overlooking the sharp bouts of volatility we have seen, particularly in energy markets,” he said.
“Nevertheless, treasury teams continue to show strong discipline in their approach to risk management. Where policy flexibility allows, many are increasing hedge ratios and extending hedge tenors, taking steps to secure greater protection and resilience against future market uncertainty.”