In deep red Oklahoma, big minimum wage 2026 election fight nears vote
Efforts to raise the minimum wage have been a winner across U.S. states in recent years, with popular support from voters across both political parties. Right now, it’s a deeply red state that is in the throes of a heated battle over the issue, and it’s heading to the polls in less than a month as part of midterm elections primary season.
A ballot measure for the mid-June primary in Oklahoma — State Question 832 — would hike the state minimum wage from $7.25, where it’s stood since 2009, to $12 per hour in 2027, $13.50 in 2028 and $15 in 2029, with the minimum wage increasing each year after 2029 based on cost-of-living adjustments.
Voters will weigh in on the state’s minimum wage fight in a special election on June 16 that coincides with the state’s primary for federal, state and local offices, including an open U.S. Senate seat and governor due to term limits.
The grassroots effort to increase the minimum wage has been a long-running fight within the state. After a series of court battles and political delays, Republican Governor Kevin Stitt announced in 2024 that he was putting it on the June 2026 election ballot. It’s been a contentious few years, with some politicians and business groups, including the Oklahoma Council of Public Affairs, the Oklahoma Farm Bureau, the Oklahoma State Chamber of Commerce and the National Federation of Independent Business, opposing the initiative.
Here are a few keys to the upcoming decision at the polls in Oklahoma, which could reveal nuances about how voters are feeling about inflation and the economy:
Oklahoma has been a holdout on the popular political issue
Oklahoma is a political laggard when it comes to raising the minimum wage. Countrywide between 1996 and 2025, voters approved 28 of 32 minimum wage increase measures on statewide ballots, including those in traditionally red states such as Arkansas, Nebraska, Missouri, Alaska, South Dakota and Florida.
“I think it’s an issue that transcends party lines,” said Alice Jump, a partner at law firm Reavis Page Jump, whose practice includes employment and labor matters. “Affordability is a big issue that both Republicans and Democrats are concerned about. It hits the pocketbook,” she said.
Oklahoma is on par with the federal minimum wage, but well below the average state minimum wage of $11.51, according to Ballotpedia. An analysis from the progressive think tank Economic Policy Institute found that enhancing the state’s minimum wage would increase wages for 357,700 Oklahoma workers — or roughly one-fifth of the state’s wage-earning workforce — by more than $783 million overall. This total includes workers who would benefit directly and indirectly from the policy. On average, affected full-time and year-round workers would gain $2,322 in annual pay, according to the Economic Policy Institute.
Business lobbies, GOP Gov. Stitt oppose the wage hike
Business groups are largely opposed to the measure based on the added cost. “SQ 832 would place significant pressure on small businesses, family farms and ranches, and other local employers already operating on thin margins,” according to a spokesperson for the Oklahoma Council of Public Affairs. “Experiences from other states show that policies like this can reduce hours, eliminate starter jobs, accelerate automation and increase prices dramatically for Oklahoma families and seniors.”
The National Federation of Independent Business recently ran a statewide campaign urging Oklahomans to vote no to State Question 832, claiming it would drive up prices, eliminate jobs and harm small businesses and family farms.
The Oklahoma Farm Bureau claims the measure would “fundamentally change opportunities for on-farm jobs and dramatically increase labor costs and regulations for agricultural producers in a time when they are facing record-high input prices,” according to a spokesperson.
Stitt, the outgoing Oklahoma governor, urged voters in a recent interview with Koco News 5 to vote against the measure due to his concerns about the inflationary aspects. “Terrible policy. Government doesn’t need to get involved in private business and say, ‘Hey, you need to pay him this and this,'” Stitt said. “The bigger issue with the state question is it also mandatorily climbs. It goes up every single year. If you look out over 10 years, we’re going to have higher mandatory minimum wage than they have in California. That is going to destroy some of the small businesses, right?”
California did lose a recent wage fight on the ballot
As the campaign rolls to a close, supporters are trying to drum up support statewide, with road signs, bumper stickers and visits to individual communities. “I remain hopeful that we will be successful on election night and prove everyone wrong who thought it couldn’t be done,” said Amber England, a spokesperson for Raise the Wage Oklahoma, a non-partisan grassroots organization advocating for the ballot initiative.
At the time the initiative to boost Oklahoma’s minimum wage was launched, no statewide initiative to raise the minimum wage had been defeated at the ballot box anywhere in America in almost 30 years, according to Oklahoma-based GOP polling firm Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates. However, in 2024, voters in California rejected an increase to $18 an hour.
“Now, Oklahomans will largely be credited with determining if this was an anomaly or if the inflation of recent years has changed voter perception,” Pat McFerron, president of Cole Hargrave, wrote in a recent blog post, suggesting that concerns about higher wages contributing to inflation could be creating a new source of resistance. A poll conducted in late April by the firm indicated that the initiative would pass if the election were held then.
Voter turnout may be a deciding factor
The biggest challenge, according to England, is getting people to come out and vote. Independents can’t vote in the upcoming primary for various government officials, but they are allowed on the state ballot question. However, it’s unclear how that will influence turnout among independents and what voter turnout will look like overall. Around 53% of registered voters in Oklahoma are Republican, about 25% are Democrats and roughly 20% are independent, according to figures from the Oklahoma State Election Board.
Cole Hargrave’s polls suggest that 69% of the expected voters will be registered Republicans.
Complicating matters is the fact that Oklahoma’s voter turnout is among the lowest in the country. The overall turnout rate of eligible Oklahoma voters in the 2024 presidential general election was 53.3%, compared with the national average of 64.1%, according to Ballotpedia, citing data from the U.S. Elections Project and others. The overall turnout rate of eligible state voters in the 2022 midterm general election was 39.6%, compared with a national average of 46.2%.
“The challenge isn’t support. We have support from all political parties,” England said.
What could happen after the election results, win or lose
Even if the measure passes, the Oklahoma Legislature could decide to limit portions of it, similar to what happened recently in Missouri, said Sara Jodka, a labor and employment attorney at law firm Dickinson Wright. Especially in a red state, the legislature is likely to come in and “gut as much as they can,” Jodka said.
In 2018, Missouri voters approved a minimum wage initiative. However, the state legislature repealed portions of the ballot measure, including statewide paid sick leave. Also, while the state’s minimum wage increased to $15 this year, there will be no further increases based on the Consumer Price Index.
If the Oklahoma ballot measure fails, the current minimum wage will remain in effect statewide at the federal minimum wage level, and Oklahoma would continue to be a “relatively low-paying state,” said Jump of Reavis Page Jump.
Some states like California and Arizona allow municipalities to set their own minimum wage, but that’s not the case in Oklahoma, Jodka said, so even workers in more populated sections of the state will remain at the $7.25 level.
If this happens, England said supporters plan to ask the state legislature to increase the minimum wage, a prospect that could be more difficult in a traditionally red state. However, England said workers will continue to press for change. “If the measure doesn’t pass, it doesn’t mean we’re going to stop fighting for higher wages for Oklahoma workers,” she said. “This campaign has lit a fire and working people are being seen and heard for the first time in a long time in this state.”
Jump said she doesn’t expect people to move to nearby states with higher minimum wage laws, but some employers in Oklahoma might decide to take matters into their own hands. “Just because the minimum wage doesn’t rise doesn’t mean the employer can’t pay more. If the employer wants to attract talent, they’re going to pay more,” Jump said.