How to really watch a penalty shootout, by Geir Jordet

Geir Jordet is an industry-leading expert on penalties and author of the book, Pressure, about the psychology of penalty shootouts. Jordet teaches and conducts research on psychology and elite performance at the Norwegian School of Sport Sciences and will be part of The Athletic’s World Cup coverage this summer. 

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Historically, about 20 percent of World Cup knockout games will end with a penalty shootout.

So in 2026, statistically speaking, we can expect about 6-7 penalty shootouts, each providing what may be the most condensed and intense pressure experience in the world’s biggest sport. As it is, this World Cup has already had two fascinating ones.

I have spent years studying this event, published more than 15 scientific articles about it, written a book that has been published in 11 languages, and been a consultant for multiple World Cup teams (and others).

Here’s how I watch a penalty shoot-out.

Let’s do this chronologically…

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The team huddle

Extra time is over and the teams gather with their coaches. This situation is fascinating from a leadership perspective. Imagine you are the coach. You have roughly the amount of time it takes a kettle to boil water, 3 minutes, to communicate with your team, before they take what perhaps are the most important kicks in their lives. What would you do and say? This leadership can be directly observed, and it gives fans the opportunity to make educated guesses about how prepared each team is for this event.

Traditionally, coaches have no plan for this moment. But how can one tell? Usually, an indicator is when the coach asks for volunteers, by posing an open question to the group and waiting for players to step up and raise a hand. In the 2022 World Cup, there were five penalty shootouts, and this volunteer-based approach was used by Japan (Moriyasu), Morocco (Regragui), Croatia (Dalic), and Spain (Enrique, via his placeholder, captain Sergio Busquets).

Coaches may choose this nomination strategy because they believe penalty takers have to want to take a kick. This is a legitimate consideration, but the concern here is less about intention and more about timing. Why wait until the very last moment to ask?

While a similar approach is to spend much of the 3 minutes searching for someone to ask to take a penalty (as was done by Deschamps in the 2022 World Cup Final), there is another way. The gold standard is to plan and speak with your players far in advance of the tournament, then come to the game with a pre-set ranking of penalty takers, which can be shuffled at the last minute should it be necessary. The best leaders can communicate this plan directly and concisely to the team.

In high-stakes, high-pressure situations coaches need to be direct and autocratic. Argentina’s Scaloni, known for his humanistic coaching style was extremely direct with his communication in the 2022 penalty shootouts. He spent only 20 seconds to nominate five players ahead of the shoot-out against the Netherlands, effectively just taking the rounds and putting his hand on his chosen ones’ chests. This gave him time afterwards to connect with his players and assess whether any of them needed extra support from him.

In those five penalty shootouts in 2022, the five teams who spent the shortest time communicating logistics and plans ultimately won their shootout. Although this is a ridiculously small sample to conclude anything from, it is interesting to speculate that time is a proxy for preparation – that the teams who spend short time most likely are better prepared than the others, and that this can have a positive impact on the outcome.

Something else to look for, who is speaking? In the 2022 World Cup, all five penalty shoot-outs were won by a team whose head coach was the primary communicator. Three of the five losing teams were led by someone who had been delegated to the job (Brazil: assistant coach, Netherlands: goalkeeper coach, and Spain: a player). The last two losing teams, France and Japan, were both led by the head coach, but with the assistant (for France) and an analyst (for Japan) having prominent roles in the huddle. To me, although I obviously understand the value of delegation, the high stakes and emotionally charged nature of this event makes this a task you don’t want to delegate.

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The coin toss

When the huddles dissolve, the captains are called to the referee for the coin tosses. The first coin toss determines which goal to use for the shoot-out. Interestingly, all teams tend to prefer the goal behind which their own fans are located. However, curiously, the science shows no “home-advantage” with respect to penalties. One study of more than 1,000 penalty shoot-outs shows that 49% of penalty shoot-outs were won by the home team, so essentially no difference.

The second coin toss determines who shoots first and second. Research published more than 15 years ago clearly showed a large advantage of shooting first, and this has been communicated widely, so most team captains elect to shoot first if they win the coin toss. However, more recent research, with larger samples (more than 1,700 shoot-outs), does not support this, finding that, again, only 49% of games are won by the team who started first. No difference.

So, there isn’t much advantage to observe around the coin toss, unless one of the captains is up to some shenanigans. In the 2020 Euro, Italian captain Giorgio Chiellini put Italy 1-0 up after the coin toss, at least psychologically speaking, after he was able to get away with first putting a fist to the Spanish captain Jordi Alba’s face, then lift him up, laugh at him, and even getting one of the assistant referees to point to him and laugh.

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The mid circle

The teams then enter the mid circle — the waiting room for penalty kicks.

TV cameras rarely document what is going on in the mid circle, which is a pity because this is where the psychological foundation for each kick is laid. When I interviewed players who have taken part in major penalty shoot-outs, there is agreement that the tension and anxiety in the mid circle while wating to take a kick, is higher than when walking to the penalty mark and higher than when taking the kick. Waiting is passive. Being unable to affect the outcome of events is agonizing. This lack of control is highly stressful.

Thus, in addition to clues for anxiety and emotions, fans will want to look for (those few times the TV cameras pan to the mid circle) players and teams taking OR abandoning control. Who steps into the mid circle first and where do they position? For a team to go into the mid circle first communicates initiative and may even assume some terrestrial dominance. It stands to reason that this marking of territory could produce a sliver of a feeling of home advantage. Further, given that teams typically line up next to each other, the team positioned closest to the bench will have more open communication to coaches and staff, just by virtue of proximity. Whoever gets to the mid circle first obviously will decide who gets this marginal potential advantage.

During the shoot-out, most teams line up on the mid circle line, while some teams move forward to a position just inside the edge of the circle, to be closer to the goal and make the walk to and from the penalty mark shorter. The team who steps forward like this first may again gain a subtle psychological advantage because they are ahead of the other team. Interestingly, what often happens is that the second team will follow suit, either way, it may feel nice to have the other react to and copy you.

Close-up images of the players in the mid circle will often show the extreme stress the players are under. Their faces will tell a lot. Moreover, it’s quite normal for some players to assume a position with their back towards the goal, displaying a clear desire to avoid looking at the unfolding events, presumably because it is too stressful to watch. Others will look down to the ground or up to the sky in prayer, which achieves the same, focus is on relief and something external rather than the task at hand. Although I understand that divine connection certainly can provide help for some and could be categorized as an active coping strategy, depending on how devout the worshiper. Regardless, some of these individual gaze strategies can prevent connection between players, which can unintentionally give off a felling of every man for himself and help produce a sense of isolation. The mid circle should be a place of active communication, close connection, and mutual support.

Most penalty shootouts are won by a team who has missed one or more shots on their way to victory. This effectively means that the way a team recovers from misses might be crucial for the ultimate outcome of the shoot-out. Some teams let the unfortunate individual who missed his shot walk in solitude (and shame) the entire way from the penalty mark and back to the circle, while others come to meet that player on the half-way. The latter shows much more unity and collective coping than the former. In 2024, England pioneered their buddy system, where each player in the mid circle were assigned one of the first five penalty kicks as a taker, or as a buddy to the taker, whose job was to pick up the penalty taker after his kick and escort him back into the group again. This type of protocol makes sure everyone in the mid circle has a role and a task, which reinforces contact, connection, and belonging in the team.

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Hostile confrontation

Walking to the penalty mark, there is one main obstacle, the goalkeeper. Ahead of the kick, goalkeepers do whatever they can to get into the head of the penalty taker, to distract, disrupt and/or delay.

What can you look for in goalkeepers’ behaviors?

Visual distraction. Many goalkeepers are waving, jumping, walking from side to side, or taking up position by one of the posts. Studies show that when faced with visual distraction behaviors, penalty takers’ performance drops around 10 percent on average. Penalty shootout history is full of creative and effective examples: Grobbelar (1984), Dudek (2005), and Redmayne (2022) are among them.

Jerzy Dudek heroics 🕺

🔴 The penalty shoot-out that completed the miracle… #UCLfinal pic.twitter.com/MhsxIOLORp

— UEFA Champions League (@ChampionsLeague) May 25, 2023

Penalty mark confrontation. When goalkeepers come off their line to approach and stare down the penalty taker on the penalty mark. For mind games specialists, such as Emi Martinez and Diego Alves, this type of confrontation is obligatory, and it serves as the foundation for the rest of their attacks.

Ball possession. A subtle but savage powerplay starts when goalkeepers get hold of the ball. Throwing it away is a popular option, but more often goalkeepers drop the ball just outside of comfortable reach of the penalty taker, clearly but quietly signalling that I am deliberately making this situation more difficult for you.

Space domination. Some goalkeepers treat the penalty area as their house, and roam around as they please ahead of a penalty, providing the penalty taker with an erratic and unpredictable aspect to have to relate to; where is he, what is he going to do, and when? Tim Krul gave a masterclass on this in the 2014 World Cup, when he was substituted on right before the shoot-out against Costa Rica. At one point, Krul could be spotted doing warm-up runs back and forth in the penalty area, while constantly addressing the opponent penalty takers.

Verbal disruption. Keep an eye out for those who spray the penalty takers with words upon approaching the ball. Emi Martinez famously got into conversations with the Colombia penalty takers in the 2021 Copa America semi-final, ultimately helping Argentina to their first major trophy since 1993.

The most devious goalkeepers are not necessarily volatile and loud, although they can certainly be that as well, rather, they are creative, clever and subtle. But they also provide clear and unmistakable signals that stand out from the background, leaving the penalty taker with no choice but to perceive and respond to it, which often disrupts the focus of the penalty taker and break his rhythm. Often, goalkeepers come across as friendly, initially, as not to be on the referee’s radar, but then slowly and progressively escalate their antics, ultimately taking a yellow card towards the end of the shootout.

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Stress coping

Before we go to the actual kicks, what can penalty takers do to protect themselves against both pressure and disruptive goalkeepers? Above all, each penalty taker needs to have a pre-shot routine, a set of procedures and behaviors leading up to the shot that are rehearsed and polished. A routine is intended to preserve and lock concentration on the task at hand serving as a forcefield to protect against the enormousness of the occasion, the consequences of a miss, and the antics of the goalkeeper.

I can often spot the penalty specialist from how they place the ball on the penalty mark and walk back afterwards. The best players appear as if they are machines, executing a set of well-defined behaviors that appear identical each time. Rigid and almost robot-like steps leak a certain level of deliberation and intention. When the referee signals the whistle, these players often pause 3-5 seconds, take 1-2 distinct and deep breaths, and then a deliberate run-up to the ball.

On the other hand, the non-specialist, novice penalty takers’ pre-shot procedures and behaviors are random, arbitrary, and reactive. They can come across as sloppy and unfocused. When the referee whistles, this is like a starting gun for these players, within a second or two they start moving towards the ball, making it possible for them to escape the uncomfortable situation as soon as possible.

A kicker’s own goalkeeper can be an ally. Many teams now have a plan where the goalkeeper grabs the ball and hands it over to the kicker. This serves a couple of purposes. First, it gives the penalty taker a friendly and stable introduction to the penalty kick. Second, it proactively prevents the opponent goalkeepers from grabbing the ball. More advanced teams have the goalkeeper walk next to the penalty taker upon re-entering the penalty area, to create a 2v1 situation and a subtle sense of superiority and dominance against the opponent goalkeeper.

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The kick

The classic penalty is the goalkeeper-independent kick where the penalty taker has decided beforehand where to shoot and simply focus on transporting the ball there with maximum precision and pace.

However, if the goalkeeper guesses correctly and moves to the side where the shot is headed, statistically, the chances of that penalty going in drops from 91% to 58%. Because even the most well struck kicks have a good chance of being saved if the goalkeeper moves in the correct direction, many specialist penalty takers employ a different technique – the goalkeeper-dependent, or stutter kick. With this, they observe the goalkeeper in the run-up, often add a stutter or two to trigger the goalkeeper to react and commit to a side, and as the goalkeeper starts moving to one side, the kicker simply rolls the ball into the other side. This technique can be very effective, just ask players like Kane, Lewandowski, Jimenez, Havertz, and Thiago.

However, there is an effective countermeasure against goalkeeper-dependent kicks. Many penalty specialist goalkeepers now make a believable fake movement at exactly the time of decision for the penalty takers, making the kicker think the goalkeeper is going to one side, but then at the last fraction of a second, they initiate a direction change. In the 2026 World Cup, Maignan successfully did this against Strand Larsen, and Livakovic did this almost successfully (he stepped out from his line slightly too early) against Kane.

This is about seizing control of the situation. Some of the goalkeepers even do double-fakes, where they pretend to make a fake movement to a side, and then take it back again and move opposite, all executed so early that the penalty taker picks it up and now feels pretty confident that he called the bluff, just to find out that it was a double-bluff, when the goalkeeper changes sides yet again, and the shot is saved. Morocco’s Yassine Bonou masters this fluid move to perfection and has effectively used it to successfully thwart elite goalkeeper-dependent penalty takers such as Toney, Haaland, and Jimenez.

Given how sophisticated this has all become, the premier penalty takers in this tournament, players such as Harry Kane and Mikel Oyarzabal, have the ultimate countermeasure to the countermeasure. They alternate shot technique between goalkeeper-dependent and goalkeeper-independent, so you never really know what they are about to do.

• Writing and editorial help by Yanique Fletcher