How many World Cup upsets do we really want? Do specialist penalty subs work? Day 19 recap

After Sunday’s one-match palate-cleanser, the World Cup clicked into a new gear on Monday, with three absorbing knockout games.

Brazil vs Japan always looked likely to be one of the fixtures of the last 32 and didn’t disappoint. Japan, so watchable in the group stage, flew out of the traps and took the lead through Kaishu Sano. Five-time World Cup winners Brazil slowly ground their way back, however, and eventually snatched victory with a stoppage-time Gabriel Martinelli strike.

If that was a warning shot to the traditional World Cup nations, Germany missed the message. They huffed and puffed against Paraguay, falling behind in the first half and completely failing to build upon Kai Havertz’s 54th-minute equaliser.

Julian Nagelsmann’s side felt aggrieved at having a late Jonathan Tah header ruled out by the VAR, but you could not argue they played well. Perennial scrappers Paraguay didn’t either, in truth, but they did progress after a dramatic penalty shootout. It was the first time Germany had ever lost a World Cup shootout.

The day’s final game went a similar way, albeit after a more exciting contest. The Netherlands thought they had seen Morocco off when Cody Gakpo turned home with 19 minutes to play in Monterrey, only for Issa Diop to score in additional time. 30 minutes of nail-biting action ensued before one of the most stressful shootouts in recent World Cup history.

Only five of the 10 spot kicks went in. And Morocco marched on.

Matchday 19 results:

Round of 32: Brazil 2-1 Japan
Round of 32: Germany 1-1 Paraguay (AET, 3-4 pens)
Round of 32: Netherlands 1-1 Morocco (AET, 2-3 pens)

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How far do we want underdogs to go?

With the knockout stages now well under way, followers of football are soon going to be dealing with an age-old tournament dilemma.

Everyone loves an underdog story. Cape Verde have enchanted us on the field at this World Cup. Australia, DR Congo, Bosnia and Herzegovina… the competition has been richer for these nations doing well. In making it through the group stage, all have written new chapters in their sporting histories — and won millions of new admirers in the process.

Neutrals, instinctively, will want this to continue. Knockout football rarely provides anything less than high drama and it is all the better when the little guy is punching above his weight. Or at least it is until a point. Herein lies the conundrum: the unlikely victories we all enjoy can end up leaving the final stages of a tournament looking a little decaffeinated. At a World Cup, after all, we want to see the big guns juking it out, too.

To be clear, Paraguay beating Germany yesterday was not something to lament. For one thing, this is a pale shadow of the German sides of the past. We have, yes, had a possible Germany vs France last-16 tie taken off the slate, but there is every chance Paraguay will put up a better fight in the next round anyway. The scenes of celebration on the streets of Asuncion, Paraguay’s capital, were genuinely stirring.

The result did, however, raise a spectre. When we look at the bracket, we tend to cast forward to heavyweight quarter and semi-finals. Already, Argentina’s portion of the draw looks remarkably manageable. That big Brazil vs England clash in Miami? It might not happen. And so it begins. Germany will not be hugely missed, but don’t be surprised if your own underdog/favourite calculus starts to shift in the next few days.

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What does Casemiro’s award say of FIFA and the World Cup?

Watching the performance of Brazil midfielder Casemiro, in his country’s 2-1 win against Japan, it was hard not to draw comparisons with one of the overarching themes of this tournament.

Casemiro did not play well. He committed a needless foul early on, earning a yellow card that made his life difficult. He was partly at fault for Japan’s goal; a few minutes later he misplaced a simple pass, kickstarting another dangerous Blue Samurai counter-attack. Nor was this at odds with his previous performances in the competition: he was so overrun against Morocco in Brazil’s opening match that coach Carlo Ancelotti hooked him at half time.

There was so much wrong against Japan, so much to complain about. Brazilians on social media were tearing their hair out at his display.

Then, out of nothing, Casemiro scored. All of the other stuff was forgotten. He was even, ludicrously, named player of the match.

Sound familiar? Think about FIFA and the World Cup. So much about the run-up to this tournament has rubbed people up the wrong way. FIFA and Gianni Infantino have rightly been criticised for all manner of things. Sometimes it seemed as though revolution was in the air.

Then the World Cup starts and everything else just… fades. Football is good. People like to watch it.

FIFA are bailed out by the product. Casemiro is rescued by his goal. And so, in both cases, the status quo persists.

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Does bringing a player on for penalties work?

Here is a great, great stat from our friends at Opta.

 

80% – Eight of the last ten players to be subbed on after the 115th minute of play at the EUROs or FIFA World Cup missed their penalty in the following shootout (80%).

Cursed. pic.twitter.com/HtjovsIDQC

— OptaJohan (@OptaJohan) June 29, 2026

This was in response to the day’s first shootout. Paraguay coach Gustavo Alfaro had thrown veteran defender Fabian Balbuena on in the dying seconds of extra time, seemingly just so he could take a penalty. Balbuena, of course, failed to score.

A similar pattern played out in the late game. Justin Kluivert came on for the Netherlands slightly before the 115-minute mark, but his entrance into the game that late surely had something to do with his proficiency from 12 yards. Just like Balbuena, though, Kluivert fluffed his lines, sending his kick onto the post.

How to make sense of this pattern? A first possibility would be that these players are somehow not up to speed with the game, either physically or mentally. This doesn’t hold much water, however. A penalty is an isolated moment; you can come at it cold. Psychologically, a bit of detachment might even be better.

No, a more likely explanation involves levels of pressure. A guy who has been out on the pitch for 120 minutes, running his guts out, has a bit of leeway when it comes to penalties. No one is going to berate him for missing after all of that. Sympathy is taken as read.

But the player who walks on with 60 seconds left on the clock, specifically to score from the penalty spot? That’s his whole night’s work. He is there to score, full stop. And it is knowledge of that fact, surely, that makes doing so all the harder.

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What to know about Tuesday’s games

Kylian Mbappe and Erling Haaland: heaven help us if they ever play on different days. If they do, this World Cup might implode, twist itself into a self-contained cyclone of purest goal matter, vanish from sight altogether, leaving only a puff of ego smoke.

Yes, the world’s two best strikers are both at it again on Tuesday. Haaland’s Norway get us under way in the early game, against Ivory Coast in Dallas. The African side have operated slightly below the radar so far but carry an attacking threat, thanks in no small part to the brilliant young winger Yan Diomande. Haaland, having been rested against France, will be fresh and raring to go. And desperate, of course, to add to his tally of four goals so far this World Cup.

France’s reward for that group-stage win over Norway? A slightly less scary fixture. Les Bleus face Sweden, who started brilliantly with a commanding win over Tunisia but looked less fearsome as the group stage wore on. In Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyokeres, they have a strike force that will ask a few questions of the French defence. But at the other end it could well be a grilling: Mbappe has been close to unplayable, Ousmane Dembele similar, and that’s before you through Michael Olise and Desire Doue into the mix.

The third game of the day takes place at the Azteca, where Mexico face Ecuador. Javier Aguirre’s co-hosts made serene progress through Group A but will be well aware that this will be their toughest challenge so far. Ecuador have been gathering momentum and, given they are used to playing in the clouds in Quito and El Alto, won’t be affected by the altitude of Mexico City. Expect a tense, scrappy encounter.

Today’s games
Ivory Coast vs Norway (1pm ET; 6pm BST)
France vs Sweden (5pm ET; 10pm BST)
Mexico vs Ecuador (9pm ET; 2am BST)