Here’s why the Mets should extend (not trade) Clay Holmes, who wants to stay

NEW YORK — As New York Mets starter Clay Holmes ramps up toward a return, multiple teams are paying close attention to his recovery and eyeing him as a sensible trade target.

A worthwhile alternative, however, exists for the Mets and Holmes, who holds a player option worth $12 million for 2027.

Between now and the Aug. 3 trade deadline, while Holmes lingers on the injured list with a fractured fibula, the Mets should explore a midseason extension with the 33-year-old.

Holmes is open to the idea.

“Definitely open,” Holmes told The Athletic on Thursday. “I know things are not the easiest right now and hard, but it’s not like I’m sitting here hoping to run away from it. If I can be part of the solution to make things better here, I would like that.

“I came here for a reason. You almost have the sense of some type of unfinished business. You want to make things right and do things well here because when you do win here, it’s very exciting. I’ve seen that. It’s something that I hope to be a part of. I don’t know what that looks like. But that desire is still there.”

The Mets haven’t closed the door on such a move, according to a source familiar with the club’s thinking who spoke on the condition of anonymity in exchange for candor.

Holmes’ injury makes him a more complicated acquisition at the trade deadline. He may not make a big-league start before the deadline, and he probably wouldn’t bring back as large a return as he would have if he were healthy.

That should push the Mets to think deeply about keeping him beyond next month and into next season. Despite this season’s derailment, New York aims to be competitive again in 2027. Behind Nolan McLean and Christian Scott, the Mets’ rotation features questions and vacancies.

There are some other factors worth considering. The Mets could prefer to hold on to Holmes and submit a qualifying offer on him, which would be worth about $23 million over one year. The qualifying offer could depress a player’s market in free agency and, were Holmes to sign elsewhere, the Mets would recoup a draft pick after the fourth round next summer.

On the other hand, the possibility of a qualifying offer could make Holmes even more inclined to do a deal now. And regardless, the amount that the Mets may save isn’t high enough for a team with such a robust payroll to care about. The bigger point they should worry about is that they’d be hard-pressed to find someone who profiles as a prudent match quite like Holmes.

Holmes is a proven pitcher in the New York market, dating to his time as the Yankees’ closer. He is a strong presence for a clubhouse that needs more of them. Also, he is pretty good on the mound.

Holmes made an impressive transition from high-leverage reliever to dependable starter. Ahead of the 2025 season, the Mets signed him to a three-year, $38 million guarantee with the plan to convert the former Yankees closer into a starter. It’s gone better than any other multi-year deal Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns has given a starting pitcher in New York.

In 2025, Holmes made 31 starts plus two other appearances and racked up 165 2/3 innings, a considerable jump after not exceeding 70 innings in any of the prior four seasons. He had a 3.53 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. At times, he showed some fatigue in the second half of the season and sometimes struggled with command.

Holmes’ 2026 season got off to a fantastic start. Over nine starts, he holds a 2.39 ERA. Since his injury had nothing to do with his arm, there is little reason to think he wouldn’t pick up where he left off, even as he approaches his mid-30s.

“They gave me an opportunity,” Holmes said. “There’s a belief there in me that I could do this. I feel like I’ve found a good place with that. There’s a level of comfort. And obviously knowing that they gave me this chance and it’s worked out. So there’s that aspect that I want to build on what I’ve been doing, and if it’s here, that’d be great.”

A deal for Holmes should not be cost-prohibitive and should fit within Stearns’ demonstrated comfort range. Holmes will be 34 next season. Pitchers who have entered free agency at that age and similar levels of production, such as Sonny Gray, Seth Lugo and Chris Bassitt, have signed three-year deals that took them through their age-36 seasons. The best of them, Gray, signed for $25 million per season. Lugo signed for $15 million per season and Bassitt for $21 million per season.

Holmes’ teammate Sean Manaea and San Diego’s Michael King signed the same deal as Gray: three years, $75 million. Lugo and King, like Holmes, had recently converted from the bullpen to the rotation. Manaea had also pitched in a hybrid role two years before signing his longer deal with the Mets.

Here, we’ve extrapolated Holmes’ WAR through the end of this season.

A three-year deal worth around $60 million, and perhaps as high as $75 million, could be a nice landing spot for both sides.

Holmes landed on the injured list on May 15. At the time of his injury, he led the team in innings. Mets players and coaches described the loss as a crushing blow because of how much Holmes meant to the team both on and off the field. In a reflection of how badly the Mets needed Holmes, they failed to replace him.

They should try to avoid a similar situation next season. Holmes is progressing well. He said he is throwing again on Friday, in what he described as a hybrid bullpen session in which a batter may stand in against him. From there, he hopes to face live batters. He is getting closer. That should be to the Mets’ benefit, even beyond this season.