Fantasy baseball bullpen report featuring leverage pathways, streamers and rankings
With just over two weeks until the finish line, the high-leverage ecosystem remains in constant flux based on usage patterns, causing frustration for fantasy managers. However, no one may have it worse than Blake Butera. Washington has already set a MLB single-season record with 38 blown saves, breaking its own team record set in 2021 (37). Finding a solution should be a priority for the team in 2027; however, the upcoming free-agent market offers limited options for a quick fix.
Arizona’s Juan Morillo was highlighted in last week’s post, and he did receive a save chance in this scoring period, but he gave up a game-tying home run in Kansas City. The Diamondbacks remain somewhat fluid, and Justin Martinez has not been used in a save situation, but one anticipates he will get a chance soon if he’s the team’s closer for next season.
The Dodgers had a five-game stretch with four relievers recording a save. Only Tanner Scott notched two between Sept. 4 and Sept. 8. Jack Dreyer, Edgardo Henriquez, and Evan Phillips all chipped in with a save in this timeframe.
Last but not least, the Cubs. Jacob Webb has not recorded a save since Aug. 14, and his last three blown saves have been on game-tying or go-ahead home runs with two outs in the ninth inning. Daniel Palencia has allowed at least a run in five of his six previous outings. A committee approach could ensue, but manager Craig Counsell hopes his bullpen executes better as the playoffs draw nearer. From a fantasy lens, a matchup-based approach involving Ryan Zeferjahn and Ryan Rolison could be employed moving forward as well.
This leads into our updated leverage pathways, which aim to provide accurate team approaches for procuring saves despite the league’s confusing usage patterns. Each team will receive one of the following labels:
- Mostly linear: This is a more traditional approach, with a manager preferring one reliever in the seventh inning, another in the eighth, and a closer (when rested) in the ninth. There are shades of gray, but it usually follows a predictable pattern in high-leverage situations.
- Primary save share: The team prefers one reliever as the primary save option. However, the RP may also be used in matchup-based situations, whether dictated by batter-handedness or batting order, especially in the late innings. This provides multiple relievers with save chances each series or week throughout the season.
- Shared saves: Typically, two relievers share save opportunities, often based on handedness, rest or recent usage patterns that keep them fresh. While these situations typically involve a primary and an ancillary option, other relievers may be used. Some teams also prefer a matchup-based option, which creates fluid save opportunities.
- Fluid: The manager has not named a closer, and usage patterns for the leverage roles remain unclear.
American League leverage pathways
| Team | Leverage Pathway | Closer (Primary) | Stopper/HLR | Stealth/Ancillary Option |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Primary Save Share |
Andrew Kittredge |
Rico Garcia |
Josh Walker |
|
|
Mostly Linear |
Aroldis Chapman |
Garrett Whitlock |
Erik Miller |
|
|
Primary Save Share |
Grant Taylor |
Bryan Hudson |
Hagen Smith |
|
|
Mostly Linear |
Cade Smith |
Hunter Gaddis |
Erik Sabrowski |
|
|
Mostly Linear |
Kenley Jansen |
Jacob Waguespack |
Drew Sommers |
|
|
Mostly Linear |
Josh Hader |
Bryan Abreu |
A.J. Blubaugh |
|
|
Primary Save Share |
Steven Cruz |
Nate Pearson |
Craig Kimbrel |
|
|
Primary Save Share |
Ben Joyce |
Samy Natera Jr. |
Ryan Watson |
|
|
Mostly Linear |
Yoendrys Gómez |
Jeff Hoffman |
A.J. Minter |
|
|
Mostly Linear |
David Bednar |
Paul Blackburn |
Brent Headrick |
|
|
Mostly Linear |
Andrés Muñoz |
Gabe Speier |
Seranthony Domínguez |
|
|
Mostly Linear |
Bryan Baker |
Tyler Wells |
Kevin Kelly |
|
|
Mostly Linear |
Jacob Latz |
Jakob Junis |
Robert Garcia |
|
|
Shared Saves |
Hogan Harris |
Elvis Alvarado |
Luis Medina |
|
|
Mostly Linear |
Louis Varland |
Tyler Rogers |
Spencer Miles |
Save streamers (ancillary saves or shared roles)
- Nate Pearson (KC)
- Spencer Miles (TOR)
- Bryan Abreu (HOU)
- Bryan Hudson (CHW)
Ratio relievers
*Multi-inning or bridge relievers who can vulture wins and help protect ratios.
- Hagen Smith (CHW)
- Tyler Wells (TB)
- Luis Medina (ATH)
National League leverage pathways
| Team | Leverage Pathway | Closer (Primary) | Stopper/HLR | Stealth/Ancillary Option |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Fluid |
Juan Morillo |
Brandyn Garcia |
Kevin Ginkel |
|
|
Mostly Linear |
Raisel Iglesias |
Didier Fuentes |
Dylan Lee |
|
|
Fluid |
Jacob Webb |
Ryan Zeferjahn |
Ryan Rolison |
|
|
Mostly Linear |
Emilio Pagán |
Brock Burke |
Graham Ashcraft |
|
|
Mostly Linear |
Jordan Romano |
Brennan Bernardino |
Jaden Hill |
|
|
Primary Save Share |
Tanner Scott |
Edgardo Henriquez |
Jack Dreyer |
|
|
Mostly Linear |
Pete Fairbanks |
Michael Petersen |
Calvin Faucher |
|
|
Mostly Linear |
Trevor Megill |
Abner Uribe |
Aaron Ashby |
|
|
Primary Save Share |
Kodai Senga |
Dedniel Núñez |
Nate Lavender |
|
|
Mostly Linear |
Jhoan Duran |
Jonathan Bowlan |
Alex McFarlane |
|
|
Mostly Linear |
Mason Montgomery |
Luke Weaver |
Gregory Soto |
|
|
Mostly Linear |
Riley O’Brien |
Ryne Stanek |
Luis Gastelum |
|
|
Mostly Linear |
Mason Miller |
Adrian Morejon |
Bradgley Rodriguez |
|
|
Primary Save Share |
Dylan Smith |
Trent Harris |
Joel Kuhnel |
|
|
Shared Saves |
Clayton Beeter |
Erik Tolman |
Yovanny Cruz |
Save Streamers (ancillary saves or shared roles)
- Juan Morillo; Brandyn Garcia (ARI)
- Edgardo Henriquez (LAD)
- Didier Fuentes (ATL)
- Abner Uribe (MIL)
Save Stashes
- Justin Martinez (ARI)
- Trent Harris (SF)
Saves leaderboard (last 14 days)
My rankings are a blend of in-season performance and rest-of-season expectations. If you feel strongly about a player, by all means, roster him.
Ratio Relievers
*Multi-inning or bridge relievers who can vulture wins and help protect ratios.
- Aaron Civale (CHC)
- Evan Phillips (LAD)
- Dedniel Núñez (NYM)
- Bradgley Rodriguez (SD)
- Carmen Mlodzinski (PIT)
Statistical Credits: FanGraphs, Baseball-Reference.com, Baseball Savant, BrooksBaseball.net. Check out my work at Reliever Recon and Closer Monkey for daily updates.