Edmonton Oilers farm report: Is there a goal scorer in Bakersfield?

The Edmonton Oilers’ top farm team, the Bakersfield Condors, has produced some impressive young forwards over the past five seasons. Three arrived as NHL rookies, played well, and are now established in the league. Ryan McLeod (9-12-21 in 71 NHL games during 2021-22), Dylan Holloway (3-6-9 in 51 games 2022-23) and Matt Savoie (18-19-37 in 82 2025-26 games) are all bona fide NHL players. Holloway and Savoie were first-round picks, chosen in the top half of the draft, while McLeod was chosen No. 40 (second round). Each of those players had NHL expectations and has delivered on the promise.

The Oilers need the Condors to graduate a forward who can score goals in the NHL. Aside from Ike Howard, who had 24 goals with Bakersfield in 47 games and should be in the NHL next season, Condors coach Colin Chaulk doesn’t have a first-rounder of note who is developing as a future NHL player.

Identifying future success

Zach Hyman was drafted by the Florida Panthers (fifth round, 2010), played college for the Michigan Wolverines, mostly in a checking role until his senior season. He blossomed as a scorer that year, with a 17 percent shooting percentage and 22 goals in 37 games.

When Hyman turned pro, he landed with the AHL Toronto Marlies after a trade in the summer of 2015. In his first pro season, one that would end with Hyman playing NHL games, he was 23. Hyman scored 15 goals in 59 AHL games, averaging 2.27 shots per game and an 11.2 shooting percentage. That should play at around 10 percent once in the NHL. Hyman’s career shooting percentage with the Maple Leafs and Oilers is 14.1 for his career, reflecting his ability to take advantage of close-in chances and cash around the crease.

Hyman had some built-in advantages once in the NHL. His most common linemates in his first full NHL season were Auston Matthews and William Nylander. That’s a very nice neighbourhood. Maple Leafs coach at the time, Mike Babcock, recognized a motor that wouldn’t quit and a willingness to go to the tough areas of the ice even if it meant getting smoked by opposition defencemen.

Can we identify the closest match to Hyman from last year’s Bakersfield team? We don’t have the complete data from AHL games (shot distance on goals), but we do have access to shot volume, shooting percentage and goals per game. Here’s Hyman as an AHL rookie with the Marlies, along with last year’s Condors freshmen:

All numbers via theAHL.com

Hyman’s totals are from a decade ago, so it’s unwise to compare them directly. Still, Howard shows well in this quick look at AHL offence, and he should have scoring success in the NHL beginning in the fall. His max foot speed (85th percentile) is quality, but his shot speed in the NHL this season (133 kph) is just below average. Hyman is 78th percentile in max foot speed (last season’s numbers), and the torque on his shot is less important due to where he scores his goals (net front).

The rest of the group is less certain and will need some luck. Remember, Hyman was quickly elevated based on speed, work ethic and willingness to play in tough areas. Quinn Hutson has some nice things, but his max speed and hardest-shot metrics are below the NHL average, per NHL Edge. It was a small NHL sample for Hutson, four NHL games, but only 17 of his 30 goals came at even strength. Howard scored 17 of his 24, in fewer games, at even strength.

Viljami Marjala is 23 and plays centre and wing, but his offensive output is shy except for shooting percentage. Just nine of his 17 goals in the AHL last season were at even strength. He might be a player, but he will have to show more next season to get a real NHL chance.

Josh Samanski is a unique player on this list, and unique is good when it comes to prospects. He owns natural two-way ability and can play centre, so his offensive output isn’t the only way for him to find the NHL lineup. His AHL shooting percentage is excellent, implying shots from high danger places, and all of his eight goals came at even strength. Samanski could get passed by others this fall. If, as expected, Babcock is named head coach this week, Samanski will have to show what he can do in a narrow preseason window.

New arrivals this fall

If Chaulk is going to find another forward who can score enough to move the needle in the NHL, he’s going to need some luck. Howard should join McLeod, Holloway and Savoie as a successful NHL player, but there are no first-round draft picks among forwards heading to training camp in the fall.

William Nicholl is a fast skater graduating from the OHL and should compete for a prominent AHL role. He scored one goal in five games with the Condors in the spring and scored 15 goals in 32 games in junior this season. Nicholl posted 11 even-strength goals.

Aku Räty was signed out of Finland’s Liiga after scoring 20 goals in 51 games, but he was in the AHL for a full season in 2023-24 and was just average. Unless he spiked in Finland, he looks like a tweener.

Owen Michaels scored 13 goals (12 at even strength) playing for Western Michigan (NCHC) but had 18 goals in 2024-25 and could surprise. His scouting report suggests a two-way type, similar to Samanski, so fans could see him in the NHL sooner than the one-dimensional types listed above.

Bottom line

It should come as no surprise that there isn’t an obvious “next Hyman” who will fly to Bakersfield this fall. The Oilers need some magic, though, and the best candidate (Howard aside) from last year’s team is Hutson. He needs another gear. If he’s looking for inspiration, Hyman’s backstory would be a great place to start.

As for the rest of the group, Samanski and Michaels have a range of skills that can get them to the NHL in a hurry. Samanski has already played in 24 games with Edmonton.