Crypto enters September with policy gamble hanging by a thread

The crypto industry heads into September with its biggest legislative bet hanging in the balance, and little confidence the proposed bill will make it past the finish line.

The looming vote on the crypto market structure bill known as the Clarity Act is shaping up as a critical test for an industry that’s spent years pushing Washington for clearer rules around digital assets. The bill would establish a framework for crypto, divide oversight between the Securities Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, set registration requirements and strengthen anti-money-laundering protections.

But despite efforts by crypto executives and President Donald Trump to excite investors and industry watchers about the possibility that the bill could become law this year, the mood is less optimistic among industry participants.

Many are resigned that the Clarity Act is dead in 2026.

“I personally am a bit pessimistic about the Clarity Act being passed,” John Darsie, CEO of SALT, told CNBC at the Wyoming Blockchain Symposium in Jackson Hole in August. “Leading into the midterms, you don’t often pass legislation of this magnitude.” SALT calls itself an investment and networking platform and leadership forum.

Missed window

The Clarity Act missed sponsors’ legislative window when the Senate adjourned for its August recess without voting on the bill. Now, Senate Majority Leader John Thune has scheduled a key procedural vote for Sept. 15, after the Senate returns from its recess, potentially paving the way for a full floor vote.

Unresolved issues include stablecoin rewards and ethics provisions tied to President Trump and his family’s crypto interests. Arizona Sen. Ruben Gallego, one of only two Democrats voting to advance the bill out of the Senate Banking Committee, has been working on a bipartisan compromise regarding ethics language for the Clarity Act. There is still a chance for the bill to advance in the Senate, but Republicans and Democrats need to find consensus, Gallego said.

“The way to get 60 votes is with good ethics legislation as well as rounding out some of the things that are still outstanding,” Gallego said during a fireside chat at the Wyoming Blockchain Symposium last month.

The possible demise of Clarity stands in stark relief to the historic sums committed in the 2024 election cycle to shifting Washington’s position on crypto. Crypto-backed political groups spent more than $200 million, helping elect candidates friendly to the industry and making crypto regulation a mainstream issue.

Deregulation bet

The bet was straightforward: a Trump victory and a more crypto-friendly Washington could replace years of regulatory hostility.

Viewed from a narrow lens, the investment is already paying off, even if Clarity dies. The SEC and CFTC are more accommodating to crypto under Trump, while other regulators – including the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, a key banking regulator – have also moved toward a looser framework for digital assets.

From the White House, the Trump administration continues to publicly frame crypto policy as a priority. At a cryptocurrency summit in August, President Trump said the administration is focused on creating “a clear regulatory framework for pioneers and builders.”

The White House meeting took place at the same time as the Wyoming Blockchain Symposium in Jackson Hole. Industry leaders speaking in Wyoming argued that crypto can continue to develop even without the comprehensive market structures found in Clarity. SEC and CFTC rulemaking can provide more certainty in the absence of Clarity, executives told CNBC, while companies continue building under the more relaxed regulatory framework taking shape.

“We’ve already seen some contingency planning,” said Sunayna Tuteja, former chief innovation officer at the Federal Reserve, pointing to discussions between the SEC and CFTC about what can be done through rulemaking. “Not perfect, but progress nonetheless.”

Denelle Dixon, president of Stellar Development Foundation, argued that the industry should use the next two years to improve existing regulations, creating precedent that can survive the next administration. Stellar is a nonprofit that aims to widen access to global finance using blockchain technology.

The next two years should be spent using the rules and standards that have already emerged from the SEC and CFTC so that, “whichever administration takes over, we have all of this bulletproof work that we’ve done to show not only is it successful, but it is advantageous for us to maintain this market structure,” Dixon said.

Accepting today’s status quo still leaves the industry pushing for clear rules to reduce uncertainty, provide an upside catalyst for bitcoin and the broader crypto market and make it easier for companies and investors to commit capital.

“If you’re looking to deploy capital and invest, and one [jurisdiction] has an established framework while another jurisdiction like the U.S. … may be subject to, every two to four years, rapid and extreme change – [it’s] hard to allocate capital,” said Andrew McCormick, head of institutional and market development at Chainlink Labs. Formal legislation can provide certainty that survives changes in administrations and political parties, he said.

Former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, an OKX board member, warned that if Clarity doesn’t pass before the midterm elections, a change in control of the House could produce years of regulatory conflict. OKX provides spot, margin, and derivatives trading for digital assets, alongside decentralized finance tools.

“If you believe there’s a change of power, at least in the House, which I do believe that Democrats will win the House, then you’re going to have a Democratic Congress overseeing an administration, the Trump administration, with the regulators making decisions under the scrutiny of a hostile Congress and that is not a good place to be because Congress will be at loggerheads with the administration,” Cuomo told CNBC at the Wyoming Blockchain Symposium.  

After years of operating under an often hostile regulatory regime, the industry may simply have learned how to keep moving without Washington providing a definitive framework.

That means that in the current political climate, passing Clarity would count as a major win. But failure may not prove the setback crypto companies once feared.