Could a Phillies-Blue Jays trade be a perfect fit? What I’m hearing about Toronto’s deadline plans

Entering the All-Star break, opposing executives expected the Toronto Blue Jays to be buyers at the trade deadline. A week later, even as the Jays fell further away from a postseason spot, another executive said the Jays were still talking about potentially adding pieces. Even now, just days before Monday’s deadline, multiple executives said the Jays had yet to truly signal their deadline intentions.

Other teams certainly think the Jays should and will be sellers, according to league sources who spoke about deadline planning on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly, and those teams have sent scouts to Toronto’s recent games to evaluate potentially available players. But the Jays appear to be taking the decision down to the wire.

None of this means the Jays won’t be sellers. It remains the likely outcome. But this deadline, unlike Toronto’s 2018, 2019 and 2024 sales, isn’t quite as locked in. Unlike those years, when the Jays’ FanGraphs playoff odds sat below 1 percent five days out from the deadline, the 2026 squad still has a slim chance, with 5.8 percent odds after Tuesday’s loss to the Washington Nationals. General manager Ross Atkins and Toronto’s front office must decide whether that’s enough to hold some pieces, or mix in additions on top of any subtractions.

Surely the Jays are doing preparatory work for all sorts of trades, but coming off a run to the World Series last fall, they’re giving this group every opportunity.

Here are other Jays notes ahead of the upcoming deadline:

The many ways money can impact plans

At the 2024 deadline firesale, Toronto dumped contracts to get under the first collective bargaining tax threshold. The 2026 Jays, per Cot’s Baseball, are projected to be more than $77 million over the first Competitive Balance Tax threshold. It’s almost inconceivable to offload that much money at the deadline.

While other wealthy teams, such as the Philadelphia Phillies and Los Angeles Dodgers, may look to take on full contracts to lessen prospect capital going back in a trade, the Jays may be better suited to eat that money to get better returns. It doesn’t mean they won’t match up with wealthy clubs, but the Jays could have better luck with budget-conscious teams such as the Pittsburgh Pirates, Texas Rangers, Milwaukee Brewers, Tampa Bay Rays and Cleveland Guardians.

There are also incentives for Toronto to cut payroll beyond saving money. If the Jays’ final CBT payroll is more than $40 million above the first threshold, their first 2027 MLB Draft pick would move back 10 spots, as it did this year, unless it’s inside the top six overall. Ducking below that mark would require moving, for example, George Springer, Daulton Varsho and Kevin Gausman without eating any salary.

If the season ended Wednesday, the Jays would have the sixth-highest odds in the 2027 draft lottery (barring changes to the draft system this winter), putting them on the cusp of a protected pick.

Toronto could use its money in other ways, too, facilitating additions while still subtracting. If the Jays don’t want to surrender the season, they could take on expensive contracts while trading away expiring players. Big-league players would leave in some moves, while expensive ones may join for lesser returns.

Massive directional changes such as a deadline sale aren’t made just by general managers; they’re often a reflection of ownership. If Rogers Communications, which has seen massive income over the past 12 months on the back of a flourishing big-league team, doesn’t want to sell, weaponizing cash can be a way to keep the door to October open, if only a crack.

The Phillies are a great trade fit

The Phillies were among at least three opposing teams with scouts in attendance for Toronto’s series at Fenway Park this past weekend. With needs in center field, at the back of the rotation and in the bullpen, the Phillies appear to be a fantastic potential trade partner for the Jays at the upcoming deadline.

Varsho’s father, Gary, and namesake, Darren Daulton, both played for the Phillies. Jeff Hoffman had the two best years of his career with Philadelphia. Gausman unlocked his fastball/splitter combo with the Cincinnati Reds in 2019, working with current Phillies pitching coach Caleb Cotham. Phillies manager Don Mattingly is certainly familiar with the Jays’ clubhouse dynamic and knows what Myles Straw can bring as a right-handed outfielder off the bench.

The current Atkins-led Jays regime hasn’t made many trades with the Phillies: Aaron Loup was sent to Philly in 2018 for Jacob Waguespack, and reliever Josh Walker was shipped there for cash last year. This deadline could be different.

The impact of no-trade clauses

Max Scherzer, Springer and Gausman all have some form of trade protection that could impact deals.

Scherzer has waived his to go to a contender twice before, forgoing his 10/5 rights in 2021 to join the Dodgers and waiving a negotiated no-trade clause in 2023 to join the Rangers. If a team calls for Scherzer at the deadline, will the 42-year-old pass up another shot at the postseason?

Gausman has an eight-team no-trade list, multiple sources familiar with his contract told The Athletic, and can block trades to the Reds, Brewers, Pirates, Detroit Tigers, New York Mets, Athletics, Chicago White Sox and Seattle Mariners. The two teams of interest on that list are the White Sox and Brewers, who could both use stable rotation upgrades at the deadline. There are enough pitching-needy teams not on Gausman’s list that his restrictions shouldn’t significantly impact a move.

Springer, through at least 10 years in MLB and five on the same team, can block trades to any team. He has never been traded before, so there is no history to go off here. With Springer hitting .291 with a .896 OPS in July, there should be multiple interested parties.

A return to Houston seems unlikely, with designated hitter Yordan Álvarez leading the American League MVP race. We’ve seen Astros owner Jim Crane jump at inconvenient reunions before, though, acquiring Carlos Correa last deadline.

The Boston Red Sox, playing just two hours from Springer’s hometown in Connecticut, are one potential fit. They need a right-handed bat, especially after Curtis Mead broke his wrist, and Springer has a .940 career OPS at Fenway Park.

The Blue Jays slugger was asked about playing at Fenway after the final game of Toronto’s series in Boston: “I always think it’s cool,” he said. “I always think it’s special. This is where I came a lot as a kid.”