Cocoa prices are easing. So why is chocolate still so expensive?
People are selecting from an assortment of premium Lindt chocolates at the Lindt & Sprungli chocolate shop.
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Cocoa prices are beginning to ease after a record-breaking rally, but don’t expect cheaper candy just yet as the world’s biggest chocolate makers turn to social media-inspired products and other strategies to win shoppers back.
Cocoa prices reached record highs over the past two years, triggered by adverse weather conditions and poor cocoa harvests that pushed chocolate costs higher and dampened consumer sentiment.
However, the price of cocoa now appears to be falling.
Cocoa futures were last trading at $5327 per metric ton and are down 34% over the past year. The commodity surged to almost $12,000 per metric ton at the end of 2024. Cocoa prices typically hovered around $2,000 to $3,000 over the past two decades.
Cocoa futures over the past five years.
Swiss Chocolate giants Barry Callebaut, Lindt, and Nestlé all pointed to soaring cocoa prices as a drag on earnings.
Lindt said Monday that groupwide price increases of 11.8% led to chocolate sales volumes dropping 7.5% as fewer shoppers bought chocolate in the first half of the year.
“Record cocoa prices required unprecedented price increases across the industry, while geopolitical uncertainty, inflation and weak consumer sentiment weighed on demand,” Group CEO Adalbert Lechner said in an analyst call. “The crisis in the Middle East added another headwind with weaker tourism flows from Asia and the Middle East to Europe.”
The world’s largest chocolate and cocoa supplier, Barry Callebaut, said that while global consumers are buying 4.4% less chocolate in the third quarter than the same time last year, overall sales volumes for the company grew 5.7% in the quarter, turning positive for the first time in over two years. Additionally, its global cocoa sales accelerated 18% due to a market correction earlier this year.
Meanwhile, food and beverage firm Nestlé said higher cocoa and coffee prices hit its underlying trading operating profit in the first half of the year, dropping 2.8%. The firm’s confectionery business makes up 9.7% of its total sales. Nestlé expects to see margins benefit from cocoa prices coming down.
What’s happening with cocoa?
Cocoa prices’ volatile run was largely due to poor cocoa harvests in West Africa, which were worsened by weather patterns related to El Niño and climate change, resulting in tight supply.
El Niño is a weather phenomenon with warmer-than-average temperatures that occurs every two to seven years in the Pacific Ocean. Soaring cocoa prices in 2024 were largely due to a ‘strong’ El Niño that led to drier, hotter weather and erratic rainfall in West Africa, according to a December analysis by Dr Tanya Lander, a researcher at the Oxford Martin School Programme on the Future of Food.
“So, it is unsurprising that the El Niño weather was linked to poor cocoa harvests in both Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana (where 60-70% of global cocoa beans are produced),” Lander wrote.
A farmer cutting a cocoa pod to collect the beans inside on a farm in Azaguie, Ivory Coast, on Friday, Nov. 18, 2022.
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Climate change and increasing temperatures are also playing a role, with 2024 being the hottest year on record. A recent heatwave across Europe could also dampen consumer enthusiasm for chocolate, UBS analysts said in an early July note on Lindt.
Heatwaves and rising temperatures in some of Lindt’s core European markets could impact chocolate demand, with European sales excluding Eastern Europe, declining in the four weeks ending June 14, the analysts said.
However, Barry Callebaut said that while a strong El Niño has been confirmed for 2026 and 2027 and creates a downside risk on supply, a large surplus for 2025-2026 acts as a buffer, resulting in a very different situation from 2023-2024.
The UBS analysts expect that Lindt has hedged at favourable cocoa bean prices for 2027, a move they estimate could reduce costs by as much as 500 million Swiss francs.
Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs have also had a brief but significant impact, causing price spikes and supply chain disruptions. More recently, the conflict in the Middle East also hit Lindt’s travel retail business globally by reducing tourism flows.
Premium chocolate, social media trends
As cocoa prices are expected to recover, chocolatiers are looking to win back their core customer base by innovating their premium product formats, as well as keeping a closer eye on social media trends that young people are engaging with.
Lindt released its Dubai-style chocolate bar in December 2024, a in a bid to capitalize on a viral social media trend. Global retailers from Walmart to Trader Joe’s, Shake Shack, and Harrods are now selling Dubai chocolate too.
Lindt Dubai style pistachio kunafa chocolate bars are displayed in Newmarket, Ontario, Canada, on September 20, 2025.
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Lindt CEO Lechner said the company plans to expand its “social media presence” to create a seamless journey between inspiration, discovery, and purchase.
“The extraordinary success of our Dubai Style Chocolate launch demonstrated the growing power of social media in building awareness, engagement, and demand for our brands,” Lechner said in the earnings call.
“This strategy is helping us reach new audiences and strengthen our relevance with younger consumers.”
Nestlé’s CEO Philipp Navratil echoed this view, saying in an analyst call on Thursday that the company plans to invest more in influencer marketing, with changes coming to how the brand advertises itself.
“More digital, more social, more organic, more fun. Tapping into how younger consumers engage with the world,” Navratil said.
Both Barry Callebaut and Lindt are focusing on consumer interest in premium products for the remaining half of the year, but they’re getting creative about how they offer products rather than increasing prices.
“By broadening our price architecture, we can attract new consumers, increase purchase frequency, and offer more touchpoints with the Lindt brand without compromising our premium positioning,” Lechner said.
Lechner pointed out that Lindt had selectively lower prices in key markets such as Germany and Switzerland, particularly over Christmas, to support consumer demand during its most important season. Meanwhile, Barry Callebaut and Nestlé haven’t mentioned lowering prices.
Instead, Barry Callebaut is also leaning into premium chocolate, growing its Gourmet business, which supplies chefs and bakers, while expanding higher-end specialty chocolate products.