Chinese carmakers could capture 15% to 30% of European market by 2035: Citi analysts

Chinese carmakers could capture between 15 and 30 per cent of the European automotive market by 2035, up from roughly 10 per cent this year, analysts at Citi said, with the outcome resting on how far Brussels goes in tightening tariffs and made-in-EU rules.

Current European Union rules would allow Chinese carmakers to reach 30 per cent by 2035 – Citi’s base scenario – while extending existing tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles to plug-in hybrids would cap the market share at 25 per cent, Citi analysts led by Harald Hendrikse said in a note issued on Wednesday.

They said the sharpest curb in their forecasts would come from the “made in Europe” requirement in the EU’s proposed Industrial Accelerator Act, which would reduce Chinese carmakers’ market share to 5 per cent in the next two years and hold it at 15 per cent by 2035.

A comprehensive “made in EU” framework under the act would require Chinese carmakers to assemble locally and use local supply chains, which would significantly reduce “future market share gains as EU local manufacturing offsets China cost advantages”, the analysts said.

They warned that European carmakers were potentially facing 10 years of volume losses and restructuring. In their base case, other Asian carmakers – mainly those from Japan and South Korea – would also see their market share decline from the 20 per cent recorded last year to below 16 per cent by 2035.

Chinese carmakers have seen their share of the European market expand rapidly, led by brands such as BYD and SAIC’s MG, which has alarmed European politicians and, increasingly, European manufacturers.