Champions League final betting odds: Why PSG are favourites to beat Arsenal

Paris Saint-Germain have the opportunity to achieve something only one team has managed in the Champions League era by retaining the trophy and winning back-to-back titles.

Luis Enrique’s side swept all before them to become European champions for the first time last season and are threatening to do so again, with Arsenal the only obstacle standing between PSG and a second successive Champions League crown.

Arsenal will put up a fight. The newly-crowned Premier League champions have kept more clean sheets (nine) than any other team in this season’s Champions League and their defence is currently the best in Europe.

At 4/6, though, PSG are firm favourites to get their hands on the Champions League trophy again, and with good reason. The French giants will take some toppling and are 6/5 to win the game in 90 minutes.

By several metrics, PSG have the advantage over Arsenal heading into Saturday’s encounter in Budapest. This is certainly true when looking at the average possession share between the two sides. While Arsenal are ranked 11th in this season’s Champions League, PSG are second, only marginally behind Bayern Munich.

PSG are averaging 547.6 accurate passes per match in the Champions League compared to 389.4 per match for Arsenal. It seems unavoidable that the reigning European champions will control the majority of possession on Saturday.

This is not possession without a purpose, though. Indeed, PSG are exceptional at translating their dominance of the ball into attacking opportunities, as illustrated by the fact only Bayern have registered more Champions League ‘Big Chances’ so far this season.

No team has registered more touches in the opposition box than PSG this season. If Arsenal can keep the defending champions out of their area, they will stand a chance. That, however, is easier said than done.

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia has netted 10 goals in 15 Champions League appearances this season and produced arguably the two best performances of his career in the semi-final win over Bayern Munich.

While Ousmane Dembele will frequently drop deep to get on the ball and move close to Joao Neves, Fabian Ruiz and Vitinha in the centre of the pitch, Kvaratskhelia likes to keep himself separated from the opposition defence.

This is designed to get the Georgian into one-on-one situations where his dribbling ability comes to the fore. Indeed, Kvaratskhelia is averaging 2.6 successful dribbles per 90 minutes.

Kvaratskhelia is 9/4 to score at any point of Saturday’s final, which considering his run of five goals in seven games appears to be good value. His dribbling could be the thing that breaks open the Arsenal backline.

While PSG lost to Paris FC in their final Ligue 1 game of the season, they have won their last five knockout ties against English teams having already eliminated Chelsea and Liverpool in this season’s Champions League run.

Enrique faces a choice between Desire Doue and Bradley Barcola as the third member of his front three, but no matter how PSG line up on the night, they will have proven difference-makers all over the pitch.

Achraf Hakimi missed the semi-final second leg against Bayern Munich through injury, but is back in training and is expected to feature in Budapest. The Moroccan’s verticality and willingness to join attacks adds to PSG’s general threat.

The success or failure of PSG’s attacking game plan will depend on whether or not they can create space between the lines. This won’t be easy against an Arsenal team geared towards limiting opponents.

However, PSG’s rotations through the middle of the pitch and into the final third are so natural that Arsenal will surely find it tricky tracking the runs of so many top-level attackers.

“I think we can do much more things than last year, but we did it because [our opponents] have obliged us to do it,” said Enrique when asked about the level his PSG side can reach. “We can still improve, but that doesn’t mean that we don’t want to keep the ball and try to play with the same idea, but we’re now much more powerful in defence.”

PSG conceded five times over two legs to Bayern Munich and so there is hope for Arsenal that they can make the most of quick transition moments to damage the French giants. The price for both teams to score is 8/11 with Betfair.

Mikel Arteta has a variety of different attacking options that could disrupt PSG, but the odds are against the Premier League champions. Instead, most things point to the European champions successfully defending their title to make more history.