Are more World Cup upsets to come? Here are 4 picks for group-stage surprises

In many ways, this has been the World Cup of the underdog. Cape Verde and Curaçao have both made history at the tournament and there will be further underdog stories written before the final in New Jersey on July 19.

With the World Cup moving into the final round of group stage fixtures, there could be even more scope for upsets as some of the stronger sides rotate their squads in preparation for the knockout rounds.

Here are four matches to look out for before the group stage concludes.

Ecuador-Germany

One point from two games against Ivory Coast and Curaçao certainly isn’t the points haul Ecuador would have hoped for heading into their final group game against Germany, but there’s still reason to believe they can spring something of a surprise against the four-times World Cup winners.

Ecuador’s defence remains their strongest asset. They conceded just five goals in 18 qualifiers and have looked solid at the back at the World Cup so far, only conceding a late goal to the Ivory Coast and keeping a clean sheet against Curaçao.

It’s at the other end of the pitch where Ecuador have experienced issues. If, however, Enner Valencia can find his shooting boots or Germany allow a lapse in concentration, this could be a tactical match-up that suits the South Americans more than the two games they have underwhelmed in so far.

Turkey-USA

No matter what happens in Turkey’s final group game, their World Cup campaign has been a failure. Widely tipped to make it out of Group D, Vincenzo Montella’s side are already out of the competition following back-to-back defeats to Australia and Paraguay. Meanwhile, the USA have six points from a possible six so far.

However, that Turkey have flopped so badly is something of an anomaly considering they have produced 3.53 expected goals (xG). They have created opportunities to find the back of the net, but have lacked the finishing to convert any of them.

United States manager Mauricio Pochettino could also be tempted to rest some of his best players given the USA are already certain to be group winners. While Turkey are heading home early, they could at least salvage some dignity from a disappointing World Cup. They’re 9/4 to beat the USA.

Norway-France

In what will be one of the most tantalising fixtures of the entire group stage, dark horses Norway will meet two-times World Cup winners France in Boston on Friday. Both teams are already through to the knockout rounds, which could take the edge off the encounter, but top spot is still up for grabs.

Norway are 3/1 to get the better of Les Bleus, which considering their current form could be worth a look. Erling Haaland and co. have won their last 12 competitive matches in succession and certainly have the attacking and creative talent to make it 13. Haaland has scored in 19 of his last 21 competitive outings for Norway.

Of course, France have a frightening forward line of their own and Norway’s defence might be the weakest area of their team, explaining why Didier Deschamps’ team are 4/6 favourites to claim three points on Friday. Nonetheless, Norway could build more momentum with another impressive win at this tournament.

New Zealand-Belgium

While New Zealand suffered defeat to Egypt in a blow to their chances of making the knockout rounds, the All Whites have been surprisingly attack-minded at this World Cup. On the flip side of that, Belgium have struggled to find any sort of fluidity in the final third so far.

Belgium have found the back of the net just once in two outings. Jérémy Doku’s direct threat was missed in the goalless draw against Iran, but even when the Manchester City winger was involved against Egypt, Rudi Garcia’s team struggled for any sort of attacking output.

New Zealand might not have the talent of the Red Devils, but they have a clearer game plan which involves playing into Chris Wood as the focal point and getting runners around the Nottingham Forest striker. A New Zealand win (priced at 11/1) would eliminate Belgium from the World Cup and might be a greater possibility than seemed realistic before the start of the tournament.