A.J. Preller wants to buy. His .500 Padres have 16 games to convince him

SAN DIEGO — A borderline call had just gone against him when Xander Bogaerts tapped the top of his helmet in the bottom of the first inning. There were two outs and none on, and the San Diego Padres shortstop was challenging a first-pitch strike that had pulled Brandon Valenzuela’s glove across the zone.

A few seconds later, the video board at Petco Park confirmed Kevin Gausman’s fastball had indeed clipped the inner half of the plate. Angry at himself, Bogaerts tapped his helmet again, this time with his bat.

Padres hitters entered Sunday’s first-half finale with a 42 percent success rate on Automated Ball-Strike system challenges, fourth worst in the majors. They left it, a 5-4 victory over the Toronto Blue Jays, with a .500 winning percentage.

Three weeks before the trade deadline, they are 48-48. It is far from clear which way the rest of their season will go. Or what direction A.J. Preller, their famously aggressive general manager, will ultimately choose.

“It’s A.J. Who knows?” right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. said. “Anything can be in play. Probably even me.”

He laughed.

“No, I’m kidding. But let’s see what happens.”

Oh, Nando 👀 pic.twitter.com/BRlD3QMXQw

— San Diego Padres (@Padres) July 12, 2026

The Padres have played at a 65-win pace over their past 50 games. They are hitting .226/.302/.370 despite weeks of gradual improvement. In a recent 10-game span, they were outscored by 51 runs. Their rotation is hanging by a thread; only one starter, Michael King, has completed six innings since June 4. FanGraphs has their postseason odds at roughly 12 percent.

And they are 3 1/2 games back of a wild-card spot.

“We’re going to go in open-minded about, you know, whether it’s acquiring players or kind of looking at if we have to go another direction,” Preller said. “I think all those things are on the table.”

Preller spoke Saturday after selecting a high schooler, 6-foot-6 right-hander Coleman Borthwick, with his top draft pick for a 10th year in a row. He is never afraid to go against convention, often prizing upside over safe bets, and that approach has helped create one of the most exciting eras in the Padres’ largely nondescript history.

It has also led to a second-half implosion and, three years ago, months of steady disappointment. Now, a rookie manager with no previous coaching credentials is trying to prevent a repeat of 2021 and 2023.

“There’s ups and downs, and my job is to not ride the ups and downs,” Craig Stammen said. “I try to do that as best I can. Am I perfect at it? Nope, but it’s a lot of fun trying to be as good as I can at it.”

The Padres started this season 2-5. They won 27 of the next 40 games to pull ahead of the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League West. They have since gone 19-30. Stammen’s inexperience has only amplified their cracks.

“He’ll be the first to tell you that, from a win-loss standpoint, he’d love to do better,” Preller said. “I’ll be the first to tell you that it’s not a perfect roster he has, that ultimately we’ve had a lot of injuries like a lot of teams do.”

Preller was also speaking before the first of two consecutive victories to end the first half. The Padres played a seesaw game Saturday night before claiming an 8-7 win against the scuffling Blue Jays. They used six pitchers in what began as a two-way walk-fest. It was the kind of nervy, high-wire baseball they could not sustain past mid-May.

But then, Sunday, they played a similar game. They fell behind in the first, took a lead in the second, lost it in the fourth and trailed by a run entering the bottom of the eighth.

That’s when Bogaerts fought off a two-strike slider for a leadoff single. After Bogaerts stole second, third baseman Manny Machado, serving as the designated hitter because of a banged-up toe, ended an eight-pitch at-bat with an RBI single. After a groundout moved Machado to second, Stammen inserted outfielder Jase Bowen as a pinch runner, the rookie promptly stole third, and first baseman Ty France delivered a go-ahead sacrifice fly.

“Those are not selfish at-bats. Those are selfless at-bats,” Stammen said. “We talk about that all the time: It’s hard to be selfless for 162 games. It just really is. You think it’s easy as fans and people watching from afar, even on the bench. But to think about everybody else when you’re doing something individually is a difficult thing to do, and the guys are starting to do a little bit more of that.”

Since June 17, the Padres have hit .256/.341/.405. Their starting pitching has simultaneously cost them many games, but they cannot fix everything at once. They will take the offensive uptick, especially from their franchise third baseman.

Machado, the engine of the lineup, leads the Padres in home runs and RBIs. He ended Sunday’s win with three singles and a batting average above .200 for the first time since early May.

“It’s Manny being Manny,” Tatis said.

“He’s locked in,” center fielder Jackson Merrill said. “It’s good to see. We call it ‘trending.’ We’re trending up.”

“The Padres have always gone how Manny goes, which is a lot of pressure on somebody,” said Stammen, a former teammate. “But there’s also a reason why we have 42,000 fans (at Petco Park) every single night, and that’s because we have Manny Machado on our team.”

Early Sunday evening, the Padres packed to go their separate ways. Almost everyone was temporarily headed home for the All-Star break. Only closer Mason Miller was bound for Philadelphia, where he will be San Diego’s lone representative at the Midsummer Classic. To contend in the second half, the team could use help in the rotation, the outfield and the bullpen.

Even if the Padres manage to address all of these areas, they would still be in a crowded chase for a wild-card berth. It’s a lot to weigh for an organization with a shallow farm system and potential financial restrictions. And it’s a lot to consider for Preller, who has not sold at a trade deadline since 2019. In recent days, the executive has dispatched scouts across the country to watch various potential sellers. For now, though, relatively few teams look like definite sellers.

“Our mindset, we’re not worried about the trade deadline or what could happen or what can’t happen,” Machado said inside the Padres’ clubhouse. “We’ve just got to enjoy this (break) and, when we get back, play baseball like we’ve been playing this last week and continue playing baseball like we’ve been playing these last couple weeks. If we do that, I think we’re going to be in a good spot.”

Maybe. The Padres, over the past week, went 4-3. If they sustain that winning percentage the rest of the way, they would finish with 86 victories.

In 2025, the Cincinnati Reds sneaked into the postseason with 83 wins. The Cleveland Guardians, who were 46-49 and hitting .222/.294/.366 at last year’s All-Star break, won 42 of their final 67 games. Each of the past two seasons, San Diego surged in the second half, albeit with more complete rosters.

As always, Preller’s preferred direction is clear. The Padres have 16 games before the deadline to convince him buying would be worth it.

“Anything can happen,” Tatis said. “Obviously, we need to keep getting better and improving in different areas, but anything can happen.”