Tarik Skubal’s recovery is unprecedented. But can the Tigers stay competitive?

DETROIT — Yes, this is progressing quickly. And man, some of the sights have been hard to believe.

Last week, Tarik Skubal played catch and warmed up for a bullpen only 12 days after surgery. Three days after that, Skubal fired 35 pitches in another bullpen session, simulating what would normally be a start day. Skubal exclaimed “F— yeah” after he reached his velocity goal on the final pitch. Skubal wouldn’t share the number, but he described his velocity as “100 percent for a bullpen.”

Tuesday, only 20 days after his May 6 procedure to remove a loose body from his left elbow, Skubal — the back-to-back reigning American League Cy Young Award winner — was back on the game mound at Comerica Park. The stands were empty, but near 2:30 p.m., Skubal came jogging out of the dugout. Jay-Z’s “Holy Grail” blared over the speakers. It’s the song Skubal bounces out to on start days.

Skubal on Tuesday threw 40 pitches in a simulated 2 2/3 innings. Right-handed specialist Jahmai Jones hit a home run to left-center. That home run was the only loud contact Skubal — facing Jones, Zack Short and Gage Workman — surrendered. He struck out three batters. And standing at his locker afterward, Skubal reported more good news.

Although there were no radar readings displayed in the stadium, Skubal was pleased with his velocity and pitch shapes. He harped on some finer points of missed execution. He landed only one of five curveballs for strikes. He critiqued his sinkers to righties and lamented small misses with a few breaking balls away.

Good, mostly, to be talking baseball again.

“All things considered, it was a pretty good day,” Skubal said.

The fact we’re even having these conversations with a pitcher so shortly removed from surgery is fascinating, and that leads us to the crux of this matter. The NanoNeedle scope Dr. Neal ElAttrache used to remove a lima-bean-sized bone chip from Skubal’s elbow had never been used on an MLB pitcher. The smaller, less invasive tool is expected to shorten recovery time. Blake Snell of the Los Angeles Dodgers has already followed suit with a NanoNeedle surgery to remove loose bodies.

But the recovery we’re seeing from Skubal right now has no precedent. And with his Tigers scuffling and the whole sport closely monitoring Skubal’s progress, this uncharted territory is equal parts riveting and consequential.

“I know my work ethic, I know what I’m going to do day to day to come back from injury,” Skubal said. “I’m not really worried about that stuff. I think the more mental tax right now is watching our guys go out and struggle a little bit. That’s more of the part that eats at you as a competitor, just because I can’t help out and do my part, which, I’m expected to provide a lot.”

The Tigers have lost 16 of their 19 games since the day it was announced Skubal would have surgery. They have fallen to five games out of the American League wild-card race.

Even as Skubal speeds through the rehab process, the Tigers have put no projected date on his return to the major leagues. Last week, Skubal even rejected a report from respected injury expert Will Carroll that suggested Skubal, his advisers and the Tigers had discussions about Skubal skipping a rehab assignment and returning as soon as this week.

“If you’re not in those conversations, I wouldn’t trust anything you see,” Skubal had said. “Now, I get it. I want to be back as fast as I can, too. What’s going on right now is kind of unprecedented. I don’t know in the history of the game if there’s been a surgery 15 days ago and I’m throwing a one-inning hypothetical start. I don’t know if that’s ever really been done before. So I get it.

“I want to be back as fast as possible. I also want to be healthy. It does me no good to come back fast, and then something happens and I go back on the shelf again. Everyone in here, it’s bad for everybody involved. We’re going to be smart, but I’m also going to try and push the threshold and communicate with doctors and training staff and have good conversations about where I can go from this point and develop a plan.”

The fact Skubal threw only 40 pitches Tuesday gives us a decent barometer. As outstandingly as this process is going, Skubal still has to build more volume before returning to the major leagues. He is likely to throw another live session in five days. The Tigers will base the process for how much and how quickly Skubal can increase his pitch counts based on his recovery from throwing sessions.

“He’s going to get ‘pitching sore’ again, which is not uncommon, but obviously all attention is on anything with his arm, and it’s been perfectly fine,” Tigers manager A.J. Hinch said. “And so recovery is going to really lead this. And then you give him a little bit more rope and a little more rope.”

Hinch on Tuesday reiterated Skubal will need a rehab assignment before returning to the majors. “He’s going to pitch in a game somewhere other than the big leagues before he comes to the big leagues,” Hinch said. “And that will come when it can. If he needs more time, cool. If he’s continuing to progress, we’re paving the way for him.”

As Skubal’s road ahead comes into focus, the idea of him returning to the majors at some point in June no longer feels impossible.

“Three weeks ago, I didn’t know when I was going to be back,” Skubal said. “I didn’t know the time frame on removing a loose body. I didn’t know anything about the injury, right? I guess if you were to check timelines, it would say three months, and I don’t think it’s going to be three months, obviously. And that’s very positive.”

The question now hanging over all this is a big one: Can the Tigers play well enough to remain in contention until Skubal returns? After their losing skid turned into a horror show, the Tigers are now 148-161 in non-Skubal starts since the start of the 2024 season. They are 46-23 with their ace on the mound.

In a weak American League, Detroit’s five-game deficit in the wild-card standings is not insurmountable. Even with the Tigers’ grisly combination of injury misfortune and wretched play, their season is not yet over. The eventual return of Skubal and others — including needed hitters such as Gleyber Torres and Kerry Carpenter — serves as a beacon of hope.

But if the Tigers do not regroup quickly, Skubal’s return could represent nothing more than a quick farewell tour. Skubal is set to be a free agent at the end of the season and could command an impressive haul if the Tigers are forced to sell at the Aug. 3 trade deadline.

The uncomfortable uncertainty is becoming a real topic. But we won’t know how this ends until we get there.

For now, Skubal is sticking to his process. He is watching from the dugout. And somewhere in his mind, Skubal might be having the same thoughts as everyone else.

Can the Tigers snap out of this before it’s too late?

“It sucks, no doubt,” Skubal said. “I hate it. Just having to watch, it’s not fun. You feel for the guys, but also, I think we’ve played a bad stretch of baseball here, and we’re still, what, five games out of the wild card? So that’s just the reality of the situation, too. As bad as it may seem, we’re still right there.”