France, Argentina favorites to win World Cup as teams enter knockout stage
Only two countries in the 2026 World Cup won all three of their group matches by multiple goals: France and Argentina. That’s why it is not surprising that those two national teams are solidly above the rest of the pack in the odds to win the tournament.
France has been the favorite to win since Spain opened the World Cup with a 0-0 draw against Cape Verde. The French currently sit at +300 on BetMGM, +340 on FanDuel and +350 on DraftKings. That’s a slight bump up since the last round of group matches began.
Les Bleus didn’t get the most favorable draw in the knockout round, with a match against Sweden and then potentially Germany after that. However, France has still looked dominant with its absurdly talented attacking trio of Kylian Mbappé, who has four goals so far, Ousmane Dembélé, who scored a hat trick against Norway on Friday to also reach four goals, and Michael Olise, who shares the tournament lead with three assists. The French are one of three teams to score 10 goals in the group stage, along with Germany and the Netherlands.
For what it’s worth, The Athletic’s forecast tool gives France a 20 percent chance to win the tournament.
As for Argentina, the defending champions look perhaps better than expected. Lionel Messi leads the Golden Boot race with six goals. His latest goal came despite not starting the match against Jordan on Saturday. With the 39-year-old still looking like a superstar, Argentina is a true contender. La Albiceleste have +400 odds to win it all, putting them not too far behind the French.
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Argentina’s draw did help them move up the odds board, passing Spain for second. Messi’s squad takes on the Cinderella story of Cape Verde in the next round and then faces the winner of Australia-Egypt. It would be a massive shock if Argentina didn’t get past both of those matches. Even a quarterfinal against Colombia or Switzerland isn’t that hard on paper compared to other potential matchups. Argentina has the shortest odds of any team in the field to make the quarterfinals, ranging from -370 to -425.
Next on the board are Spain and England, who have matching odds. The duo is +650 (13-to-2) on FanDuel and +700 (7-to-1) on DraftKings and BetMGM. La Roja take on Austria next and could face Portugal in the final 16 before a possible quarterfinal against the United States or Belgium.
The Spanish haven’t seemed to hit top gear yet, although they did demolish Saudi Arabia 4-0. In the goalless draw against Cape Verde and a 1-0 win against Uruguay, Spain was in control, but didn’t look as threatening in front of goal as France or Argentina. However, Spain is one of two teams not to allow a goal so far, along with Mexico. A stout defense will be valuable in the knockout stage as games tighten up.
England is heavily favored to get past DR Congo and set up a fascinating game at the Estadio Azteca against Mexico in the last 16. A quarterfinal against Brazil or Norway could be after that. On paper, it’s not the easiest of draws.
Speaking of Brazil, the Seleçao are one of four other teams with odds of 20-to-1 or shorter to win the World Cup. Portugal, the Netherlands and Germany are in that group as well. Overall, the top eight teams from before the tournament are still the top eight teams in the odds as the knockout stage gets underway.
As for the Americans, the hosts are ninth in the odds, which is a big move from the start of the tournament. The U.S. is listed at 25-to-1 on BetMGM, 30-to-1 on DraftKings and 35-to-1 on FanDuel. While the Americans are one of three teams to win both of their first two matches by multiple goals, along with France and Argentina, the American sportsbooks are likely keeping the odds a bit shorter to minimize their risk from a surprise run.
According to data from BetMGM, the three group matches with the most bets were the three games involving the U.S., and the Americans are the most bet-on team to win the tournament.
Co-host Mexico is 50-to-1 on DraftKings and BetMGM, while FanDuel has El Tri at 55-to-1.
The longest odds to win the World Cup among the remaining teams belong to Cape Verde, Bosnia and Herzegovina, DR Congo and South Africa. All four squads are listed at 2,500-to-1 on FanDuel.