16 Fantasy Football Facts to Win in 2026
The best part of my August? Easy: spending time at the cottage with my wife, who may be reading this.
Fantasy drafts are a close second. Finding a time and date that somehow works for 12 people. Bugging them for league fees. Watching your favorite sleeper go one spot before your pick. Not easy. Still wonderful.
Because you’re busy with life stuff, I dug into The Athletic’s fantasy content to find 16 nuggets that could change how you approach fantasy in 2026. Let’s get into them.
This article is from The Athletic’s NFL newsletter. Sign up here to receive it directly in your inbox. It’s free to subscribe.
16 facts to help win your league
1. Wide receiver scoring is down. Last year, it was down 8 percent compared with 2024, an inevitable result of defenses emphasizing two high safeties to slow passing attacks.
2. It sounds like that continues in 2026, based on defensive coordinators’ comments, so we should prioritize top running backs early.
3. That’s what Jake Ciely is doing, aiming for two running backs in the first three rounds. There are 11 RBs in the top 20 players of his overall fantasy rankings:
4. If you miss on those 11, the running backs just outside Jake’s top 20 are also strong: Kenneth Walker III (No. 24), Kyren Williams (25) or Josh Jacobs (26).
5. Jeremiyah Love (35) is a notable absentee from the list. He should dominate touches in a crowded Cardinals backfield, but he will lose some to James Conner and Tyler Allgeier in a mediocre offense. Pass.
6. You might’ve noticed A.J. Brown at No. 13, 10 spots higher than he is typically drafted. The main reason: Brown’s elite downfield ability is a perfect fit for Drake Maye.
7. That’s also why Maye is Jake’s QB2, 19 overall spots ahead of his consensus draft position and ahead of Lamar Jackson. That seem high? It shouldn’t. Maye was QB2 last season, behind only Josh Allen.
8. But Maye might not be worth an early pick. That’s because the value difference between top picks and replacement players is significantly less at quarterback than at running back or receiver, meaning we want to prioritize the latter positions.
9. Just look at the quality of quarterbacks available later in drafts, with last year’s MVP at QB14.
10. Another reason to wait at quarterback: In 2025, Maye, Matthew Stafford and Trevor Lawrence finished QB2, QB3 and QB4, respectively, while being drafted QB15, QB23 and QB21.
11. In 2025, none of the top five running backs were drafted outside the top 10 at the position, and only one of the top five receivers (George Pickens, WR26) was drafted outside the top 15. So, yeah, skip quarterbacks early and prioritize RBs and WRs.
12. Same for tight ends. If Brock Bowers or Trey McBride fall to later in the third round, pounce. Otherwise, I’d heed the advice of Jake: “Harold Fannin or Kyle Pitts in the seventh round, or Isaiah Likely, or even Dalton Kincaid (while praying he stays healthy this season), in the ninth.”
13. Our Michael Salfino found similar arbitrage opportunities at receiver. Jaguars WR Parker Washington is a popular breakout candidate after finishing as WR16 across the final eight games of 2025. He’s currently being drafted as WR38. Courtland Sutton is also undervalued.
14. Bears WR Luther Burden III is expensive. The departure of D.J. Moore and slot Olamide Zaccheaus, plus offseason hype from teammates and coaches, has vaulted Burden to WR17:
15. That’s appropriate, because Burden’s upside is that of Amon-Ra St. Brown. St. Brown broke out in his second season with Ben Johnson and has been the WR3 in each of the past three years. I’d take Burden, also a slot threat, as high as WR15. Don’t sleep on Rome Odunze, either.
16. Probably overhyped: Bhayshul Tuten. The Jaguars running back is being drafted as RB18 after Travis Etienne’s top-10 finish in 2025 (and subsequent departure to New Orleans). But coach Liam Coen signed Chris Rodriguez, an underrated runner whom Coen coached at Kentucky, to muddy the backfield. Both are sleepers, which worries me.
There’s one problem with those 16 points: It’s impossible to win a fantasy league in August. Or is it?
Principles: Two strategies to find gems
I spent the past few years studying fantasy league winners to find consistent principles underlying their success. That’s a formal way of saying that I noticed what works.
Below are two ways people find league-winning picks every season. Last year, these two principles led to Travis Etienne (who finished RB10 while being drafted in Round 13) and Chris Olave (drafted 73rd overall, finished WR6). There were also misses, such as Isaac TeSlaa, so don’t over-invest in any one player.
Anyway, the strategies:
1. Take a late-round flier on preseason risers. Reading the NFL’s equivalent of tea leaves (beat reports) in the summer of 2023 suggested then-rookie receiver Puka Nacua had breakout potential.
This year’s late-round preseason risers include 49ers rookie De’Zhaun Stribling and teammate Deebo Samuel, Patriots camp standout Kayshon Boutte, potential Raiders No. 1 wideout Jalen Nailor, and late-round Chiefs receiver Cyrus Allen. Stefon Diggs is also on that list after signing with the Commanders.
2. Draft offseason fallers. The opposite of point No. 1! Remember when a rookie Ja’Marr Chase struggled with preseason drops? Or last year, when people were down on players such as Olave and Etienne?
Here’s what happens: The market thinks a player is overvalued. So he drops a round in average draft position. As he should. But the idea that “Etienne is overvalued” remains, so he continues to fall as we approach September. People don’t want to draft the unsexy pick, so the discount grows with each week.
Two examples this offseason:
Chiefs WR Xavier Worthy is a legitimate buy-low candidate, because many are writing him off after a disappointing 2025. I’m skeptical he’ll ever live up to expectations, but the downside is limited at his WR45 price tag. Beat reports are positive.
A calf injury derailed Panthers RB Chuba Hubbard in 2025, when he was outplayed by Rico Dowdle, and now he has Jonathon Brooks returning. If Hubbard continues to fall, he could be this year’s Etienne.
Michael Salfino shares his underpriced receivers here, and there’s plenty more in The Athletic’s draft kit. We’ll have a fantasy edition of the newsletter every Friday until the season starts. Good luck this weekend, if you’re also drafting.
Extra Points
💤 2026 sleepers. Our staff’s most underrated options for this season, including Cowboys second-year running back Jaydon Blue.
🎯 Draft this rookie tight end. A quick history of how first-round tight ends fare in their rookie season suggests you should be drafting Jets TE Kenyon Sadiq.
🚫 Avoid Omarion Hampton? Despite an improved offensive line and coaching from run-game maestro Mike McDaniel, Andy Behrens explains why Hampton’s ADP appears reckless.
📓 Preseason takeaways. If you missed it above, re-linking our takeaways from an entertaining Hall of Fame Game. YouTube highlights here.
▶️ Most-clicked: What actually happened with Aaron Donald’s “tryout.” Still no word from him or the Rams, who ended training camp yesterday.
📫 Enjoyed this read? Sign up here to receive The Athletic’s free NFL newsletter in your inbox.
Also, check out our other newsletters.