Super Bowl 59 predictions: Why our staff leans toward a Chiefs victory

The Athletic has live coverage of Chiefs vs Eagles in Super Bowl LIX, and Kendrick Lamar’s halftime performance.

One thing is clear from our staff’s Super Bowl picks: It’s not easy picking against Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs.

But it’s not as difficult to do as it was a year ago when 80 percent of our 50 voters predicted the Chiefs would beat the San Francisco 49ers (they were correct). This time, 63 percent of our 41 voters believe the Chiefs will win their third consecutive title and beat the Philadelphia Eagles at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans.

“The Chiefs have been running a marathon all season, a quest to be the NFL’s first three-peat champion in the Super Bowl era,” The Athletic’s Nate Taylor, who covers the Chiefs, says. “Mahomes has more than enough postseason experience and could be at the peak of his athletic powers to guide the Chiefs to another Super Bowl victory.”

Mahomes is 17-3 as the Kansas City starter in the playoffs. That’s ridiculous.

The Eagles lost three games this season — two before they got out of September and a third on a final-seconds touchdown against the Washington Commanders, the team they beat 55-23 in the NFC Championship Game.

“The Eagles are built to beat the Chiefs. They seize control of games with Saquon Barkley and a run-oriented offense that helped lead the NFL in time of possession margin,” says Brooks Kubena, who covers the Eagles for The Athletic. “They haven’t turned the ball over yet in the playoffs with Jalen Hurts embracing a more conservative role in the pocket, and they leverage this security against a top-ranked defense that’s forced 10 turnovers in three playoff games. If they play to their strengths, they’ll be up two scores with less than two minutes to go. And that’s the only time they know Patrick Mahomes can’t kill them.”

Now, our picks.

Why the Chiefs will win …

I was tempted to write only the name of the Chiefs’ quarterback as my explanation. Instead, I’ll go with this: Patrick Mahomes and Steve Spagnuolo. The latter is the master of the crunch-time blitz that no one’s seen before. Expect something special from both late in the fourth quarter. — Matt Barrows, 49ers beat writer

Travis Kelce pops the question on the field after the Chiefs offense pops for a season-high in points for the second week in a row. — Vic Tafur, Raiders beat writer

The Chiefs reserved one of their best games of the year in the AFC Championship Game, with the offense playing as well as it has all year. If that holds true in the Super Bowl, look out. A Patrick Mahomes-led attack with great speed at receiver and Travis Kelce, combined with their defensive abilities and lack of injuries, has the table set for the incredible three-peat. — Joe Buscaglia, Bills beat writer

GO DEEPER

Super Bowl LIX key questions: What must the QBs do? Who will be the X-factor?

This pick is about trust. When push comes to shove, who do you trust more? Patrick Mahomes or Jalen Hurts? Mahomes. Andy Reid or Nick Sirianni? Reid. Matt Nagy and Steve Spagnuolo or Kellen Moore and Vic Fangio? This is probably the closest of the three matchups, and I respect the hell out of Fangio, but Spagnuolo still gets the nod for me. The nitty gritty scares me: Saquon, Eagles wideouts, Philly’s defensive front, etc. But the trust lies with the folks in red, so that’s the pick. — Alec Lewis, Vikings beat writer

The Eagles have the best team. But the Chiefs have the best player, and that player can compensate for anything an opponent has that his team does not. If the game is close, and it assuredly will be, would you bet against Patrick Mahomes on a final drive? I would not. — Dan Pompei, NFL senior writer

Philadelphia is 15-1 since its Week 5 bye, and the only loss in that stretch came in a game Jalen Hurts did not finish. This Eagles team could go down as one of the all-time greats. Except for the fact that Patrick Mahomes exists. Every statistical analysis would suggest Philadelphia is a better team than Kansas City, but it’s going to come down to Mahomes and Andy Reid against Hurts and Nick Sirianni. — Josh Kendall, Falcons beat writer

I’ve picked against Kansas City twice this season (both Buffalo games) and can make a good case for Philadelphia here, but I’ll ride with the Chiefs’ situational superiority. All their key pieces — Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Chris Jones and Steve Spagnuolo — seem to have the right answers at the key times. The Eagles’ red zone defense is strong and could be Philly’s key to winning as an underdog. — Mike Sando, NFL senior writer

The Chiefs are going to lose like 20 straight one-score games at some point. But it may have to wait until the 2030s. It definitely has to wait until after Sunday, when the Chiefs will once again find chunk plays, be a step ahead in the red zone and have timely curveballs for the opposing quarterback. The Eagles are more than capable of winning, the entire world has essentially been working the refs on behalf of the Eagles for the past two weeks, and yet: Chiefs in a close one. — Joe Rexrode, columnist

Why the Eagles will win …

The Eagles, in my mind, are clearly the more talented team at just about every position that matters. Saquon Barkley has been unstoppable. The defense is playing its best football of the year. The Chiefs, as always, have the better combo at head coach and quarterback — but it just feels like there’s something special about this Eagles team. If they can get pressure on Mahomes and make his life challenging — with Jalen Hurts taking care of the ball — that should be enough to win, even if it comes down to the very, very end which I think it will. — Zack Rosenblatt, Jets beat writer

All of the disclaimers about betting against Mahomes certainly apply here, so call me foolish. I was tempted to go with a relative blowout, like Eagles 38, Chiefs 17, as I think there’s a better chance Philadelphia wins big than Kansas City wins big. But in all likelihood, this will come down to the final minutes, probably in a low-possession game that artificially deflates the score. I’ll say the Eagles kill the final 5:33 of clock before kicking the game-winning field goal. — David DeChant, NFL senior editor

GO DEEPER

NFL coaches pick the Super Bowl: Eagles better on paper, but is Mahomes the difference?

Give me the ultimate home-run hitter. Saquon Barkley has seven touchdown runs of 60 or more yards this season, including three in Philadelphia’s last two postseason games. The total number of such runs produced by the rest of the players in the NFL this season, playoffs included: 10. It’s hard to bet against Patrick Mahomes with history on the line, but Barkley has been the NFL’s best player this season and he has one more jaw-dropping performance left in him. — Nick Kosmider, Broncos beat writer

When the Eagles are “on,” they prove they are one of the deepest and most well-built teams we’ve seen in a while with “that dude” at nearly every position. Steve Spagnuolo has an edge over Kellen Moore, but Vic Fangio will have his say against Matt Nagy and Andy Reid. Am I crazy for picking against the Chiefs in a one-score game? Perhaps, but there’s something magical about the way Saquon Barkley and the Philadelphia offensive line have rolled all year. They’ll need the full potential of their roster and some of that magic to get in the way of history. — Jourdan Rodrigue, Rams beat writer

The Ravens played every AFC playoff team and several of the NFC postseason squads, and there was a widely-held belief in the locker room that the Eagles were the best team they played all year. It’s tough to go against Andy Reid, Steve Spagnuolo and Patrick Mahomes in a big game. It’s even tougher to pick the Chiefs’ opponent in a one-score affair. However, I think the Eagles are the better and more balanced team. They can control this game at the line of scrimmage with Saquon Barkley and their running attack. — Jeff Zrebiec, Ravens beat writer

(Illustration by Kelsea Petersen / The Athletic; top photos: Cooper Neill, Mitchell Leff / Getty Images and Diamond Images / Getty Images)