In federal leaders’ debates, these are the topics set to dominate – National
Canada’s relationship with the United States and President Donald Trump will likely dominate this week’s leaders’ debates for the federal election, but experts say there will be other issues to watch for.
The leaders of the Liberals, Conservatives, New Democrats and Bloc Québécois will gather in Montreal Wednesday evening for the campaign’s only French-language debate, followed by the English-language debate on Thursday.The federal debate commission rescinded an invitation to the Green Party, saying that “the Commission concludes that because the Green Party of Canada has intentionally reduced the number of candidates running in the election for strategic reasons, it no longer meets the intention of the participation criteria to justify inclusion in the leaders’ debates.”You can find details on how to watch both debates here, as well as a breakdown of each party’s campaign promises on key issues so far here. Story continues below advertisement
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The latest Ipsos poll conducted exclusively for Global News and released Sunday suggests 43 per cent of Canadians plan to watch at least one of the debates, while just 21 per cent said they will not watch.That same poll, which found the Liberals leading but the Conservatives gaining ground, suggested 11 per cent of voters remain undecided.“I suspect there will be a number of undecided voters tuning in to see how they will respond to some of these hard questions,” said Mary Anne Carter, a federal lobbyist and principal of government relations at Earnscliffe Strategies.Here’s what to look out for on both nights.The campaign has been dominated by Trump’s ever-evolving trade policies and the impacts his tariffs are having on Canadian workers and consumers, as well as threats to Canada’s sovereignty. Story continues below advertisement
Which leader will best stand up to Trump and protect Canada from those threats has become “the ballot question” of the election, Carter said, and will inform much of what’s discussed in the debates.“It’s hard to recall the last time the country has had such a high-stakes debate,” said Stewart Prest, a lecturer in the political science department at the University of British Columbia.
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Although Ipsos found Canadians see U.S. relations as less of an issue compared with two weeks ago, its latest polling also suggests the Liberals are overwhelmingly seen as the party best equipped to handle Trump and the U.S.
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That presents pitfalls for both Liberal Leader Mark Carney and Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, Prest said.“The risk, or the dilemma, for Poilievre is to find ways to stand up for those issues that he thinks are important and that resonate for his populist supporters, but every time he does so in ways that sound a little bit Trumpian, he risks alienating the rest of the country,” he said. Story continues below advertisement
“For Carney, I think the risk is the reverse, where he is going to be at risk of looking like a target of populist outrage if he’s not careful in how he conducts himself…. He has to make it clear in all sorts of ways, through his policies but also in his conduct, that he understands the challenges Canadians are facing.”
Affordability, other issues top of mind
While polling from Ipsos and other firms has found affordability and the cost of living is by far the dominant issue in this election, experts agree that and other issues may be framed through the lens of Trump and the U.S.Poilievre and other party leaders have sought to tie the Liberals to Canada’s economic and affordability problems, as well as other issues like housing, that had been building long before Trump returned to the White House.
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Ipsos found that the Conservatives are narrowly seen as the party best suited to address affordability and cost-of-living concerns, as well as housing, while the Liberals are leading on the economy overall. Story continues below advertisement
Carter said she expects energy and climate will be brought up in the debates, “especially with the Conservatives raising the carbon tax throughout the campaign” and promising to expand resource development in its platform to move away from the U.S.Foreign affairs and national security will also be a key topic, including China and Ukraine, she added, but will also likely be informed by the Trump administration’s policies on those fronts.
How will language factor in?
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The Ipsos poll on Sunday suggests Canadians expect Carney to win the English-language debate, with 41 per cent saying he will come out on top compared with 29 per cent for Poilievre.That dynamic is reversed for the French debate, however: 34 per cent said Poilievre will win, while just 16 per cent picked Carney, who has openly struggled with his French-speaking skills and has said himself he’s not fully fluent. Story continues below advertisement
That may not matter much to Quebec voters, experts say, who are valuing Canadian sovereignty much more than in past elections.“What we see in the polls is that they don’t care,” said Jeremy Ghio, a former Liberal staffer and senior director at communications and government relations firm Tact.“The only thing that Quebecers, like Canadians, care about is who’s the best person to take care of Donald Trump. And right now, Mark Carney is leading.”
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Rudy Husny, a former advisor to Stephen Harper’s Conservative government, said “expectations are low” for Carney in the French debate, giving him more room to surprise with his performance.He added that Poilievre and Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-Francois Blanchet will need to be careful not to attack Carney over his French skills too aggressively. Story continues below advertisement
“There’s a saying in French, we say in Quebec, that we don’t like ‘chicaner,’” he said. “It means that when there’s too much arguing, if people are talking over each other, that [is] not very good on the debate [and] they don’t like that image.”
Can NDP, Bloc gain ground?
The looming threat of Trump has made this election more of a two-way race between the Liberals and Conservatives than in the past, at the expense of the NDP, Bloc Québécois and Greens.“This is not a time for people to make a vote of conscience, or who they want to win in a perfect world,” Prest said. “They’re really focused on who is going to actually be governing the country next month and beyond.” Story continues below advertisement
It’s not clear how much of an impact the debates will have on voting. A Leger poll released last week suggests 61 per cent of Canadians have made up their minds already, up from 53 per cent who told Ipsos the week before they are “absolutely” certain of the party they will support on election day.“If someone makes a significant enough mistake and the debater says something too provocative or really blows an answer, it could shift some people’s minds,” Carter said. “But I think most Canadians are kind of aware of where the parties stand, policy-wise.”Ghio said all the leaders besides Carney need to make a sizable impact if they want to change their momentum at this point.“The objectives for Mr. Carney’s team is basically to create no drama, make no mistakes,” he said.“For all the other party leaders, they need a hat trick.”— with additional files from Global’s Touria Izri
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