NHL contract grades: Jason Robertson’s deal with Dallas delays long-term decision

The contract

Dallas Stars sign Jason Robertson to a one-year contract with a $12 million cap hit.

Mark Lazerus: Jim Nill managed to keep Robertson from surpassing Mikko Rantanen’s cap hit, after all. How about that?

Neither side here should be terribly happy, which is often the sign of a fair deal. The fact is, all the Stars did was kick the can down the road for another year — another season of Robertson’s pending free agency hanging over their heads, another summer of potentially contentious negotiation. And all Robertson did was take a significant haircut from his actual value, failing to truly capitalize on a career season that should have earned him the biggest and longest contract of his career.

But that’s OK. The Stars live in the moment — all that matters is trying to win the Stanley Cup in the 2026-27 season. And their odds of doing so are undeniably better with Robertson on the left wing of the top line. The 2027-28 season is Future Jim Nill’s problem; let him worry about it. Current Jim Nill can breathe a little easier, knowing he didn’t send away promising young forward Mavrik Bourque for nothing. As for Robertson, he clearly didn’t want to leave Dallas, having turned down a trade that would have sent him to Seattle for a long time and a lot of money. He gets to stay, and he gets to negotiate another contract when the salary cap is $9.5 million higher — and when he’ll be an unrestricted free agent, rather than a restricted one. Plus, both sides avoid the potentially fractious process of arbitration this summer. It’s a modest win-win.

Of course, regardless of Texas’ tax situation, Robertson signing for $12 million when we’ve seen Leo Carlsson sign for $18 million and Connor Bedard sign for $15 million is borderline laughable. Robertson had his third 40-goal season in just six full NHL campaigns in 2025-26, posting 96 points. Even his two so-called down seasons before that saw him post 80 points each year. Robertson, one of the game’s last true power forwards, is as reliable as they come. He also was Dallas’ best player in the playoffs, scoring five goals in six games in the first-round loss to Minnesota (a series in which Rantanen was largely invisible at five-on-five). Despite all the slings and arrows he took leading up to his Olympic snub, about how one-dimensional he supposedly is, Robertson is actually a quite competent defender and has the underlying numbers to back it up. This is an elite player in his prime, and he’s grossly underpaid. Just not for long.

Is it possible Robertson founders this season and ends up having to settle for less on his next deal than he could have gotten coming off a monster season? Sure, but his style of play — knocking in greasy goals from the goalmouth — is largely slump-proof. Or, at least, disaster-proof. And he’s betting on himself, giving himself a crack at entering unrestricted free agency while still in his mid-20s, something few high-end players truly get to do. It’s a good bet, one that more players should be taking at his age.

So the band stays together for at least one more year. It’s far from ideal for either side, but both get what they want for now — Jason Robertson, wearing Victory Green, parking himself in front of the opposing net and burying pucks. They can worry about the future in the future. In Dallas, the time is always now.

Contract grade: B

Shayna Goldman: A $12 million price tag, in a vacuum, is great value for Robertson for the 2026-27 season, especially after he leveled up to franchise-caliber last year. His defense was solid, his playmaking supported the Stars’ attack, and most importantly, his shot was extremely effective. When the team needed more at five-on-five, Robertson delivered, despite so many injuries and absences around him throughout the season. And that was true in the playoffs, where he was unquestionably one of the team’s most reliable producers.

It couldn’t have happened at a better time for Robertson, ahead of his contract expiring. In theory, it should have helped the Stars too, because his level of play, from the start of the season through Round 1, should have answered any questions about his consistency or big-game play.

In theory, it should have given the Stars the confidence to give Robertson the bag — even if it meant signing him to a splashier contract than Rantanen’s eight-year contract carrying a $12 million cap hit. Keep in mind that contract took up 12.6 percent of the cap in Year 1; with a $104 million cap, that’s equivalent to $13.1 million. Under a projected $113.5 million salary cap in 2027-28, that shakes out to $14.3 million.

Instead, the outcome is a one-year deal that … opens itself up to more negotiations and potential trades over the next year.

A one-year deal isn’t the worst-case scenario because Dallas gets another shot with one of its best players in the fold. Plus, Tyler Seguin’s expiring contract and the increasing cap could buy the Stars the flexibility they need to sign a long-term deal ahead of July 1 next year.

And if things aren’t working out by March, Dallas can always sell Robertson to the highest bidder at the deadline and try to reset. Just look at what the Hurricanes gained from the Rantanen trade to the Stars.

But it’s far from the best-case scenario, either. Because now this team is at risk of losing its best player for nothing if he walks as a free agent. And if the Stars don’t have a championship by then, they’ll be a team that’s a year older and under even more pressure to go the distance.

Contract grade: B-