France clear-cut favorite to win World Cup, above Argentina, as we enter round of 16

The 2026 World Cup is down to 16 teams, and a clear hierarchy has been established among the betting favorites. France has looked like a scoring machine so far and is the clear favorite to win it all, while Argentina is firmly in second.

Will those teams meet in the final, or will there be some surprises to prevent a rematch of the 2022 final? The odds have France well ahead of the rest of the pack at +175 on DraftKings and +180 on FanDuel. Argentina is +400 on FD and BetMGM and +430 on DK.

These two teams are the last two champions and met in Qatar, where Argentina won on penalties in a memorable final. France is minus-odds to make the final (-110 on FD and -105 on DK), which means it’s roughly 50-50 Les Bleus make it to MetLife Stadium on July 19. Argentina is a touch less likely, but still the clear favorite in its half of the bracket (+150 on FD, +170 on DK).


As if a World Cup final wouldn’t be enough, a France-Argentina meeting could also be for the Golden Boot with Messi and Mbappé in an incredibly tight and competitive race so far. Messi is the current favorite to win the award with seven goals to lead the race, while Mbappé is one behind at six.

Spain was the pre-tournament favorite by a touch ahead of France. La Roja looked like that team against Austria, winning 3-0 and still hasn’t allowed a goal. Spain is third on the betting board between +550 (11-to-2) and +600 (6-to-1) to win the World Cup.

Spain’s attack hasn’t looked as flashy as France’s, though. France, meanwhile, has looked like the front-runner in every game, scoring at least three and winning by at least two in all four games.

Unsurprisingly, France and Argentina are the biggest favorites in the next round. France is a huge chalk to get by Paraguay on Saturday, while Argentina is nearly as big of a favorite to advance past Egypt.

Not only have France and Argentina arguably looked the best of anyone in the tournament, although Argentina endured plenty of stressful moments in its epic 3-2 win against Cape Verde on Friday, but they have matches against two of the biggest long shots left in the field coming up. Spain, meanwhile, has a tough upcoming match against Portugal.

After the top three, England (9-to-1 on BetMGM), Brazil (10-to-1) and Portugal (12-to-1) are in a tier of their own before another drop-off in the odds.

The knockout stage started with a couple early upsets that saw Germany and the Netherlands go down, but the favorite won every other match in the final 32. That means the pre-tournament odds to win it all haven’t changed all that much. The top six teams have shuffled around in their order, but those were the top six teams before the tournament began.

Where are the upstart Americans? In addition to the six teams mentioned above, Colombia and Mexico are also ahead of the United States, which is ninth in the odds on FanDuel (33-to-1) and DraftKings (30-to-1). The Americans face a match against Belgium that is viewed as a coin flip, and things would get even tougher after that against Spain or Portugal. With that draw, the U.S. is not expected to make the semifinals.

For all the talk about Africa having a standout group stage, the continent went 2-7 in the first round of knockout matches. Europe makes up seven of the final 16 while South America still has four teams left. The three co-hosts are still alive along with two African nations in Egypt and Morocco.

BetMGM has a European nation winning priced at -225, followed by South America at 2-to-1, North America at 10-to-1 and Africa at 25-to-1.

The biggest long shot remaining is Paraguay at 350-t0-1 on both DraftKings and FanDuel.