Wimbledon recap Day 4: The Rafael Nadal law that explains how hard elite tennis can be
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Welcome to the Wimbledon briefing, where The Athletic will explain the stories behind the stories on each day of the tournament.
On Day 4, one of tennis’ more familiar rules took hold, American hopes were set for the July 4 weekend and the upsets of last year gave way to chalk.
Why is tennis so prone to comedowns?
Perhaps it should be known as the law of beating Rafael Nadal.
Between 2012 and 2017, Nadal suffered seven shock defeats at Grand Slams before the quarterfinals. On not one of those occasions did the person who beat him go on to win another match at that tournament.
It’s a tale as old as time. In tennis, players have no chance to celebrate after a huge win, unless it comes in a Grand Slam final. Instead, they are asked to go back on court a day or two later and try to back it up.
On Thursday at Wimbledon, a couple of players were unable to do so, succumbing to Nadal’s Law.
Three storylines to watch at Wimbledon
Matt Futterman
First there was Maya Joint, who found herself thrust into the limelight Tuesday night against the returning Serena Williams. Joint, a 20-year-old from Australia, won a blockbuster match under the Centre Court lights in what was far and away the biggest occasion of her career. On Thursday afternoon, she was tasked with going again and backing it up against the fast-rising No. 29 seed from the Philippines, Alexandra Eala. For a set, Joint looked like claiming another impressive win, but she suffered a big letdown thereafter, ultimately collapsing to a 3-6, 6-2, 6-0 defeat.
Otto Virtanen also recorded the biggest win of his career on Tuesday, beating the No. 4 seed Ben Shelton in a fifth-set tiebreak. Virtanen, a 25-year-old from Finland ranked No. 140, has struggled to close out matches, so this felt like a breakthrough victory.
His next assignment appeared far more straightforward — up against Britain’s Arthur Fery, a man ranked more than 100 places below Shelton and with only one Grand Slam match win to his name before this week.
But Virtanen, perhaps also feeling the effects of three qualifying matches in his legs, slumped to a 5-7, 7-6(3), 6-3, 6-3 defeat.
He and Joint weren’t the first to suffer a tennis comedown, and they certainly won’t be the last.
— Charlie Eccleshare
How has Wimbledon aligned for July 4?
Happy July 4 weekend to all who celebrate.
Wimbledon has gifted Americans a veritable buffet of U.S. tennis to watch as the long weekend begins, with eight American women left in the draw heading into Friday and seven American men.
Among the women, the group representing the stars and stripes are tightly bunched in No. 2 seed Elena Rybakina’s half of the bracket, with No. 7 Coco Gauff slated on Friday to take on qualifier Claire Liu, a fellow American and the 2017 Wimbledon girls’ champion, and No. 6 Amanda Anisimova and No. 26 Madison Keys set to play Saturday in a match of two classic grass-court style players with huge serves and groundstrokes.
Anisimova, who walloped three aces and hit four unreturned serves to get out of a third-set tiebreak and beat Sofia Kenin 6-2, 4-6, 7-6(10-3) in a tight match Thursday, always looks forward to facing opponents with a similar game style to hers. Maybe because the matchups feel straightforward — “when I’m playing someone scrappy, I adjust my game,” she said in a news conference — or maybe she feels personally challenged to dole out more aggression and more power than whoever’s standing across the net.
She’s got a good record, and a history of entertaining matches, against some of the biggest hitters in the game, including 6-5 against world No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka and 3-0 against Naomi Osaka. Anisimova also beat Keys in their lone matchup, at last year’s WTA Finals, but the latter played while ill. This one should be total fireworks.
The most tantalizing head-to-head in this half of the draw is still the potential quarterfinal between Gauff and Jessica Pegula. But before then, Pegula could have another all-American match, should both she and 18-year-old Iva Jovic win Friday.
Pegula was asked about Jovic’s game in her pre-tournament news conference.
Go figure, the same thought runs through her mind as everyone else’s when she watches the ultra-confident teenager.
“I just remember watching her play in Australia. I didn’t know if I had, like, an idea of where her game was going to be. I think she went out for a night match and just destroyed somebody,” Pegula said. “You could just see the look in her face, like, she means business every time she steps out. I think that is something super-rare. You don’t always see that in someone so young.”
In the men’s draw, where the Americans are further spread out, there is precisely one potential matchup in the next few days worth circling in red: No. 6 seed Taylor Fritz and No. 17 Frances Tiafoe in the fourth round.
Tiafoe beat Fritz for the biggest title of his career last month, but that was in Halle, Germany. The stakes, and the atmosphere, just might feel a bit different at Wimbledon.
— Ava Wallace
How have seeds held their chalk better this year?
By the third round of last year’s Wimbledon, the tournament had set a Grand Slam record. Just 27 seeds remained, 14 women and 13 men — the fewest at a Slam since the 32-seed format was adopted in 2001. Four of the top five women’s seeds were gone, while three of the men’s top five remained. There were upsets at every turn.
This year, the seeds have made a better fist of things. There are 21 women’s seeds left and 16 on the men’s side, with four of the top five remaining in both draws. Shelton and Mirra Andreeva, the No. 5 seed who exited against 2024 Wimbledon champion Barbora Krejčíková, are the highest-profile upsets so far.
No. 1 Jannik Sinner flirted with danger in his opening match with Serbia’s Miomir Kecmanović, who took him to five sets. Gauff, who does not have a strong grass-court record, and Anisimova, who last year made the final, both needed final-set tiebreaks to reach the third round. But largely, the first four days have seen matchups hold, and one of the finer balances in tennis is back in play.
A calmer first week is not as exciting as one full of drama and unexpected results. The early stages of last year’s tournament were utterly consumed by that drama, with big names falling by the wayside wherever and whenever fans looked. But the upside is that a stacked third round will hopefully mean a second week full of the best players in the sport, which is what they all want and what every Grand Slam hopes for.
Big stars. Big matches. Big courts. And then, plenty of drama.
Let the third round begin.
— James Hansen
Other notable results on Day 4:
- Defending champion Iga Świątek (3) eased past 2021 finalist Karolína Plíšková 6-1, 6-3.
- Taylor Fritz (6) survived an all-American clash with Patrick Kypson 6-2, 6-2, 7-5, while Alex de Minaur (5) of Australia defeated Adrian Mannarino of France 6-3, 6-2, 6-2.
- Emma Navarro (23) loves a three-set match, and the American won a decider yet again, defeating Oksana Selekhmeteva of Spain 3-6, 6-4, 6-1.
- And Germany’s Alexander Zverev (2) eased past France’s Valentin Royer 6-1, 6-3, 7-6(3).
Shot of the day
Grigor Dimitrov’s phenomenal, emotional 7-6(5), 4-6, 7-5, 6-3 win over No. 15 seed Jakub Menšík contained some vintage backhands from the Bulgarian, including this down-the-line scorcher.
Drop Shots
🫠 On Wimbledon’s grass, slipping and falling is an occupational hazard. It’s how players fall that matters
🌊 Dimitrov returned to the All England Club one year after injury hell, and found two emotional wins.
⚾ Why Gauff’s brother is ready to make waves in the Major League Baseball draft.
🕚 Tennis stops at 11 p.m. at Wimbledon, and the curfew can change matches in a big way.
Up next: Third round
🎾 Men’s singles: Arthur Rinderknech (25) vs. Novak Djokovic (7)
8:30 a.m. ET on ESPN, ESPN Unlimited
Djokovic, a seven-time men’s champion at Wimbledon, said he wanted a daytime match after his second-round win over Stefanos Tsitsipas of Greece. Serbia’s 39-year-old sporting hero gets it against France’s Rinderknech, who is 30 and experiencing the most sustained success of his career so far. Djokovic was imperious against Tsitsipas, and should be able to maneuver Rinderknech around despite his booming serve and all-attack game.
🎾 Women’s singles: Aryna Sabalenka (1) vs. Jeļena Ostapenko
11:30 a.m. ET on ESPN, ESPN Unlimited
Pray for the tennis balls. This match will be all power, with Ostapenko, 29, pushing to dominate from the baseline and 28-year-old Sabalenka expected to win the serve battle. After that? It will likely come down to nerve management for both players. Latvia’s Ostapenko is playing with less pressure, but is just as prone to unraveling on court as Sabalenka has been of late.
🎾 Women’s singles: Barbora Krejčíková vs. Nikola Bartůňková
11 a.m. ET (est.) on ESPN Unlimited
A fascinating all-Czech affair, between two-time Grand Slam champion Krejčíková, 30, and 20-year-old rising star Bartůňková. Bartůňková and Krejčíková share finesse in the front of the court as well as deceptive power, with Bartůňková’s excellent spot-serving giving her a platform and Krejčíková’s ability to change rhythm at will trying to destabilize it. Hope for three sets.
Wimbledon 2026 women’s bracket
Wimbledon 2026 men’s bracket
Tell us what you noticed on the fourth day…