USA-Bosnia match is expected ‘to be the single most-bet World Cup game ever’

The United States against Bosnia-Herzegovina is poised to become the most-bet World Cup game in American history, as bettors continue to embrace the global game and demonstrate patriotism by backing the home team.

The Americans are currently consensus -700 heavy favorites to advance in this Round of 32 matchup and around -300 to win the game in regulation with a total of 2.5 goals.

“The handle is off the charts,” DraftKings sportsbook director Johnny Avello told The Athletic. “It looks like this handle will surpass March Madness.”

At BetMGM, the handle of the 2022 final between France and Argentina is the only World Cup game with a higher handle than the Americans’ three group play games in the sportsbook’s history. “We expect USA-Bosnia to be the single most-bet World Cup game ever,” BetMGM head of public relations John Ewing said.

And nearly all the action on the outcome is one-sided, which is rare because sportsbooks often see unemotional, respected wagers that simply prioritize profit. But that really hasn’t been the case. “We’ve got a couple accounts that we think are really sharp that aren’t betting against the U.S.,” Westgate SuperBook vice president of Race and Sports John Murray told The Athletic.

At Caesars, 92 percent of the money on that particular game is backing the Americans. “This aligns with the broader trend across the tournament, where our largest liabilities have consistently been tied to the USA,” Caesars Sportsbook head of soccer Mark Bickerdike emailed.

“I do expect a USA win,” Nigel Seeley, a U.K.-based betting analyst with more than 30 years in the industry who is stateside for these games, told us via text message. “I can’t see the U.S. changing their high-intensity style. Eleven of Bosnia’s last 12 internationals have seen both teams to score, and that is my pick in this one at +110.”

Along those lines, American bettors often prefer simple, star-driven wagers. One fun narrative so far has been the World Cup’s biggest names of Lionel Messi, Kylian Mbappe and Erling Haaland all delivering goals practically every game. For the U.S., Folarin Balogun and Christian Pulisic each have around +105 odds to score against Bosnia-Herzegovina, and they represent a combined 84 percent of that market’s handle at BetMGM. At Caesars, over 50 percent have backed Pulisic to score.

As is often the case, American bettors have been enamored with lofty payouts. Casual bettors originally backed Team USA to win the World Cup at 60-to-1 odds, and that has flowed steadily with every impressive win. The Americans now have about 30-to-1 odds to win it all.

“It would be the Miracle on Ice sort of thing, pretty much. Maybe bigger than that. If USA wins, we’re really going to have a huge loss,” Avello said on Vegas Stats and Information Network on Monday.

Almost all sportsbooks remain significantly vulnerable, especially if the Americans do the unthinkable and win five more games. But we are seemingly still a few more games away from the house adjusting the odds to offset risk.

“I wouldn’t really worry about it until the semifinals. I don’t think it’s worth worrying about until we get past the Spain game (potentially in the quarterfinals),” Murray said. “We want to see them keep winning. It’s not easy to get crowds and handle in July.”

Entering the day, the Americans currently have the ninth-shortest odds, roughly the same as Norway.