2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup: How Netherlands can reach the Round of 32
The Netherlands is currently first in Group F. It will play its final match of group play against Tunisia on Thursday, June 25 at 7 p.m. E.T. Japan will face Sweden at the same time.
What the Netherlands needs to advance
Will finish first if:
- Netherlands wins +
Japan wins +
finishes ahead of Japan on tiebreakers - OR
- Netherlands wins +
Sweden wins or draws - OR
- Netherlands draws +
Japan draws +
finishes ahead of Japan on tiebreakers
Will finish second if:
- Netherlands wins +
Japan wins +
finishes behind Japan on tiebreakers - OR
- Netherlands draws +
Japan or Sweden wins - OR
- Netherlands draws +
Japan draws +
finishes behind Japan on tiebreakers - OR
- Netherlands loses +
Sweden wins +
finishes ahead of Japan on tiebreakers - OR
- Netherlands loses +
Japan wins or draws
Will finish third if:
- Netherlands loses +
Sweden wins +
finishes behind Japan on tiebreakers(>99% to advance)
What happens to the Netherlands in 625 possible scoring scenarios
Each square is a specific final score in both the Netherlands–Tunisia (columns) and
Japan–Sweden (rows) matches, colored by where the Netherlands would finish group play if those scorelines occur.
Most likely Round of 32 opponent
Four others <1%
Most likely Round of 32 location