Amazon Prime Day arrives earlier this year. Here’s why Wall Street is watching closely
Amazon ‘s four-day Prime Day event this week could reveal something more important for the e-commerce giant than just a big sales number. Wall Street will be watching to see if Amazon can further cement itself as consumers’ to-go destination for everyday essentials at a time when inflation-weary shoppers are focused on value. Prime Day kicks off at 12:01 a.m. PT on Tuesday (or 3:01 a.m. ET) and runs through June 26 at 11:59 p.m. PT on Friday (or 2:59 a.m. ET on Saturday). In addition to tons of deals across more than 35 categories, Amazon is putting an extra incentive on its underpenetrated grocery category — offering an additional 10% off sale items for Prime members. During the online shopping event, media and commerce research firm Emarketer estimates that Amazon’s U.S. Prime Day sales will rise 7.1% year over year to $15.6 billion. That number would account for more than 60% of all the retail sales in the United States for those four days. Not to be outdone, Walmart , Target , Best Buy , and other retailers are launching competing promotions. This is the second year of the four-day Prime Day format. The event started as a single day in 2015, moved to two days in 2019, and went to four days in 2025. It has also been going earlier and earlier in recent years to capture more of the lull in summer shopping, for which the event was created in the first place. By pushing the Prime Day timeline earlier each year, Sky Canaves, analyst at Emarketer, posited that the move is “a way to test whether Amazon can expand the types of purchases consumers make during Prime Day.” Amazon has typically focused on selling in categories that it dominates, such as consumer electronics and other big-ticket items. But in recent years, with elevated inflation sending consumer sentiment to historic lows, there has been a “pronounced shift in terms of the categories that shoppers buy,” Canaves explained. Inflation, as measured by the consumer price index, accelerated to 4.2% year-over-year growth in May, the highest level in three years. It was driven largely by higher energy costs tied to the Iran war. (At the time, Jim Cramer was on record , saying oil prices should come down when the war ends. That is what is happening now, but won’t show up in the economic numbers for a while.) Higher prices put additional pressure on household budgets and increase consumers’ appetite for discounts and value. There has been a lot more “budget consciousness,” Canaves said. The Prime Day shopper has become more interested in deals on everyday essentials, and groceries, as well as personal care, and beauty items. It’s these “smaller ticket items that they will use Prime Day to stock up on,” the Emarketer analyst added. It’s a trend that is supported by recent consumer surveys. According to an April survey by marketing platform Omnisend, 53% of respondents cited steep discounts as their primary motivation for shopping Prime Day. The survey found 55% of U.S. consumers plan to participate this year, up from 45% last year, while 66% expect to spend the same amount or more than they did during the previous event. “A lot of people are using Prime Day strategically,” Marty Bauer, e-commerce expert at Omnisend, said. “Their plan is to stock up on everyday essentials while there are discounts available.” Canaves said Prime Day’s growing focus on household staples corresponds with Amazon’s increasing investment in fresh and perishable grocery items, categories that have gained traction as Amazon expands same-day delivery capabilities. Unlike electronics purchases, groceries and essentials are a “big hook” for consumers, Canaves said, adding that such items encourage repeat purchases. Amazon already has a strong foothold in those categories. Canaves noted that some of the top-sellers during recent Prime Days have included energy drinks, Liquid I.V. hydration products, and consumables, alongside Amazon’s own devices. As the years pile up, Prime Day has become less about adding new members and more about increasing the value existing members get from their Prime subscription, Canaves said. That’s because of a pretty good problem to have. Emarketer estimates there are currently almost 190 million Prime users in the U.S., which represents more than 86% of all of the online U.S. buyers. “Once you get to that point, it’s very hard to grow because the market is almost saturated with members — almost everyone has access to the Prime account,” Canaves added. Amazon has targeted younger consumers through discounted membership programs, cashback offers, and promotions aimed at college and back-to-school shoppers. According to Emarketer, GenZ and millennial Prime members are more excited than older generations about the event’s move from July to June and tend to be drivers of spend for Prime Day. This year’s Prime Day will also be an opportunity for Amazon to highlight Alexa for Shopping, a personalized AI assistant that can create personalized deals and product recommendations based on a user’s shopping history and preferences. The tool is available to customers on the shopping app and website. Bank of America called Alexa for Shopping “a key tool for discovery and tracking deals during Prime Day,” in a June 18 preview note of the online shopping event. Analysts believe Alexa will be “an essential tool in protecting direct traffic for Amazon, as well as enabling higher conversion rates and driving incremental spend on the platform.” They forecast Alexa can generate more than $200 billion by 2035 and $20 billion of incremental retail profit. The bank has a buy rating on Amazon and a $310 price target. Bottom line Prime Day is a strategic event for Amazon to strengthen customer loyalty, and more so today, drive recurring purchases in higher frequency categories like grocery and everyday essentials. Rather than being a short-term boost for sales, the goal is for Amazon to get deeper customer engagement in the essentials category. The stock has been an underperformer, delivering gains of 1.7% year-to-date, in a market that seems to be unfavorable to the megacaps spending billions of dollars on their AI infrastructure buildouts. The S & P 500 has increased 9% in 2026. We hope Amazon doesn’t make an equity raise, as Alphabet did with its $85 billion stock sale to fund its AI buildout. At 27 times forward earnings, Jim said he’s “very worried about” Amazon’s valuation. At the same time, however, there are reasons to stay positive. Its cloud business, Amazon Web Services (AWS), has seen accelerating growth with incredible margins. If oil prices continue to come down, that should give a boost to its retail business, given that high fuel costs are a big input cost for the company and a deterrent for consumers. We have a buy-equivalent 1-rating and $300 price target on Amazon stock. (Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust is long AMZN, GOOGL. See here for a full list of the stocks.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . 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