It’s NBA Draft week, and time for The Athletic’s live NBA mock draft.
For the next two days, this is your home to find where I’m predicting each player will be taken. So if you’re repeatedly refreshing to find new information, this is the link you’ll want to bookmark.
This draft is considered a strong one at the top and throughout the lottery, although withdrawals of college players lured by NIL riches have substantially impacted the depth of the class. Most executives I’ve spoken with have first-round grades on about 20 to 25 players and think the final 20 picks of the draft could result in some interesting selections. They say teams could be making deals with players ahead of time to lock them in on two-way contracts, as they don’t see much difference in talent level between players ranked from, say, No. 45 to No. 100.
This year seems to be much more active with trade discussions than I can remember. Now, it’s worth noting that teams tend to be aggressive in discussing trades for draft picks before the draft if only to understand what their options will be on the night of the event. NBA teams — typically, at least — don’t just come up with trade frameworks out of nowhere. They’re in communication with one another in the days leading up to the event, coming up with scenarios depending on how the board shakes out. So when you see that teams have discussed these picks, it’s worth understanding that these talks are oftentimes just pre-planning for potential scenarios.
A few notes before the mock:
• Each first-round pick features a link to the in-depth scouting report in my NBA Draft Guide on that player.
• Ages are as of Tuesday.
• Heights are from the NBA Draft Combine in May.
• NBA executives, scouts, agents, players and other sources across the basketball ecosystem were granted anonymity in exchange for speaking freely about prospects.
1. Washington Wizards
AJ Dybantsa | 6-9 wing | 19 years old | BYU
I’m sticking with Dybantsa here for now, as we have since lottery night. The team has done a lot of research into Peterson to understand everything it needs to know about him. But Dybantsa remains the pick as the most likely option for the Wizards and the best fit for what the team needs, according to league-wide sources.
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Washington’s lead executive Michael Winger said in an interview with the local NBC station in Washington that leadership is an attribute he looks for in a No. 1 pick. Peterson is considered an exceptionally hard worker by all sources connected to him, but his leadership ability has been questioned, as he’s regarded as a quiet introvert. Peterson is a stone-cold killer on the court in terms of competitiveness. But Dybantsa is viewed by NBA sources as a more dynamic personality with leadership tendencies, both in the locker room and in the community.
2. Utah Jazz
Darryn Peterson | 6-5 guard | 19 years old | Kansas
We’re still sticking with Peterson, the same person we’ve had plugged in here since lottery night, for now. Sources indicate that the Jazz have considered several different options at No. 2. Do not expect, however, that connections to Cameron Boozer through his father Carlos (who works in the Jazz front office) or Dybantsa through team owner Ryan Smith at BYU will be the deciding factor here.
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For my money, Peterson remains the best fit of any player on the board as a legit secondary ballhandler to play with Keyonte George and Ace Bailey as young offensive perimeter players. He’s the kind of dynamic scorer who would fit remarkably well in Will Hardy’s offensive scheme.
3. Memphis Grizzlies
Cameron Boozer | 6-8 forward | 18 years old | Duke
If Boozer is on the board, I would be stunned to see Memphis pass on him. He ticks all the boxes that the organization has looked for in its draft picks over the years under president of basketball operations Zach Kleiman.
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The Grizzlies have been consistently better at drafting than any other team in the league, having hit on Desmond Bane, Santi Aldama, Jaylen Wells, Cam Spencer and even guys such as GG Jackson and Vince Williams Jr. beyond pick No. 20, let alone past lottery picks Zach Edey, Cedric Coward, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Ja Morant. Typically, the Grizzlies like skilled players who produce well for their age and possess high-level basketball IQ, while also being extremely competitive. Boozer is elite in all of those categories. He is almost the prototypical player Memphis wants to build around as it enters a new era following the trades of Jackson and Bane.
4. Chicago Bulls
Caleb Wilson | 6-9 wing | 19 years old | North Carolina
League sources believe Wilson would be an easy pick for Chicago if he gets to No. 4. The Bulls worked out other players, including Darius Acuff Jr., Kingston Flemings, and Nate Ament, but it would be a significant upset if any of them were selected here.
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Wilson would fit well at the four next to Josh Giddey and Matas Buzelis as the team’s long-term building blocks and give the Bulls a solid framework with which to start using their cap space this summer to acquire veterans, while also trying to accumulate more assets.
5. LA Clippers (via IND)
Keaton Wagler | 6-5 wing | 19 years old | Illinois
This is seen as where the draft really starts. The two names I’ve heard most associated with the Clippers at No. 5 are Mikel Brown Jr. and Wagler. Why? The team seems to be prioritizing at least some size next to Darius Garland in the backcourt, and Brown and Wagler are bigger options than the other highly-rated guards. Even though both are skinny, NBA executives feel like they have more room to grow into their frames than Flemings and Acuff, as Flemings is more slight and Acuff has been basically the same size for the last few years.
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I believe Wagler is the best fit of the four guards here, too, thanks to his ability to play both on and off the ball. Sources have indicated that Wagler has added muscle to his frame during the pre-draft process. He came to Illinois at 168 pounds and weighed 188 pounds at the combine; his frame should continue adding strength over the next few years.
The Clippers have also had discussions about trading down, although sources indicate that they do seem set on making an early draft selection this year. Multiple league sources have speculated that if the Clippers look to trade down, don’t be surprised to see them get another pick in this year’s draft — just in case the NBA’s investigation into the Aspiration scandal results in the loss of future picks. If they do trade the pick, I’ve heard Wagler the most out of the players that other teams would be chasing. If the Clippers were to move down, Brayden Burries would be a potential fit.
6. Brooklyn Nets
Mikel Brown Jr. | 6-4 guard | 20 years old | Louisville
The one consistent piece of information is that Brooklyn will take the highest-graded player on its board, regardless of position. Even though the team selected three point guards last season, it hasn’t ruled that position out. The Nets believe they simply need to get more talent in the door. And recently, the name I’ve heard most connected with Brooklyn is indeed Brown’s. The Nets have certainly done a significant amount of legwork into his evaluation, and he has impressed teams throughout the pre-draft process, convincing teams that his struggles with efficiency last season at Louisville largely stemmed from his back injury. Teams I’ve spoken with have cleared Brown medically and seem to have no concerns about that injury.
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Tennessee wing Nate Ament’s name continues to pop up in conversation for this spot, and I’ve heard from a couple of other teams in this range that the Nets have discussed sliding back a few slots in the lottery. However, they can’t afford to move too far down if they indeed want Brown, as the Clippers, Atlanta Hawks and Dallas Mavericks all seem to have some degree of interest in him. If Brown goes to the Clippers at No. 5, that would make more sense for Ament being the pick here. Ament has also been heavily connected with the Milwaukee Bucks at No. 10.
7. Sacramento Kings
Darius Acuff Jr. | 6-2 guard | 19 years old | Arkansas
The Kings are likely to stay at No. 7 and select the best guard who falls to them. In this case, they seemingly get their wish of Acuff being on the board; most teams below this slot are working under the impression that the Kings are Acuff’s floor.
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Sacramento general manager Scott Perry has a relationship with the Acuff family, as he coached Eastern Kentucky in the 1990s when Darius Acuff Sr. played for the Colonels. The team is in desperate need of an offensive engine at the lead guard slot. If Acuff is available here, it would be a massive win for the Kings.
8. Atlanta Hawks (via NOP)
Kingston Flemings | 6-3 guard | 19 years old | Houston
League sources say the Hawks are the most active team in discussing trade scenarios. They completed a deal with the Oklahoma City Thunder on Sunday night to acquire Aaron Wiggins into the trade exception they generated when they dealt Luke Kennard to the Los Angeles Lakers at the deadline. Sources have said Atlanta is discussing both trade-up and trade-down scenarios. But it also could just stay here and take the player it wants if he remains on the board.
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If they don’t trade the pick, Flemings’ ability to pressure the rim with his speed would fit wonderfully with Jalen Johnson, Jonathan Kuminga and other high-level athletes on the Hawks’ roster. Atlanta could use a downhill, athletic guard next to the now-re-signed McCollum, Dyson Daniels and Nickeil Alexander-Walker. Much like many of the guards, Flemings is seen as unlikely to fall outside the top 10.
Part of trying to figure out what happens on draft night is being an investigator and piecing together all of the different intel that you get. The deal that makes the most logical sense, to me at least, is the Hawks moving up from No. 8 to No. 5, using pick No. 23 and maybe some other small asset. The Clippers want to make an early pick, and sources indicate that they have interest in Brayden Burries. Sources for other teams have also connected the Hawks as a team that likes Wagler. Both these teams have also been noted by sources to be exploring deals moving in these respective directions. This is speculative and not based on any specific reporting, but it tracks as a sensible outcome.
9. Dallas Mavericks
Morez Johnson Jr. | 6-9 big | 20 years old | Michigan
With Dusty May being hired as the Mavericks’ new coach on Monday, league sources speculated about which Michigan player could follow him, as Johnson, Yaxel Lendeborg and Aday Mara are realistic options at No. 9. Johnson’s name is the one I got the most if the Mavericks decide to bring along one of May’s players from Ann Arbor, but new front office leaders Masai Ujiri and Mike Schmitz have researched a wide variety of players. The Mavericks have also explored trading down.
Johnson continues to draw excitement from teams. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see him be the top big off the board, and his range starts as early as No. 8 with Atlanta. His floor seems to be No. 15 with Chicago, but it seems unlikely he’ll get that far. One question teams often ask players who come in for workouts and have been out on the circuit for a while is, “Which other prospect has impressed you?” The Michigan big man has been a popular answer.
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