How Turkey’s World Cup hopes fell apart – and rendered USMNT clash a dead rubber

When Turkey qualified for the World Cup from UEFA’s playoff route and landed in Group D, many viewed the game against the United States clash on June 25 in Los Angeles as the marquee matchup of the section — a showdown with the potential at least to decide first place and shape the knockout bracket and the destiny of the two sides.

Instead, after consecutive losses to Australia and Paraguay, Turkey’s squad heads to LA already eliminated from the tournament. That, combined with the Americans having beaten those same two opponents to secure first place with a game in hand, turned what was expected to be a decisive battle for group supremacy into a dead-rubber, a soccer term used for games without consequence.

The only purpose remaining? To serve as a final reckoning for one of this World Cup’s biggest disappointments.

Among those most invested were the 80 million Turks raised on memories of the country’s historic third-place finish in 2002, which was also the last time they had qualified before making it this time. And the Crescent Stars’ arrival in Los Angeles could not be more different from the way the team left Istanbul.

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When coach Vincenzo Montella’s squad departed for North America, the sendoff was a national event of serious significance.

The team was escorted to Istanbul Airport by a convoy of Turkish-made Togg vehicles draped in flags, while traffic was halted across parts of the city and thousands lined the roads and bridges spanning the Bosphorus strait, resulting in an unmistakably patriotic spectacle, reflecting the enormous expectations surrounding Turkey’s first World Cup finals appearance in 24 years.

Two defeats later, those dreams have evaporated. And no match better illustrates that collapse than Friday’s dud at SoFi Stadium, a rare World Cup game that, for just about all purposes, counts for absolutely nothing.

While the co-hosting U.S. has emerged as one of the early success stories of the tournament, for Turkey, it is quite the opposite.

“If fate is not on your side, once you make a mistake, then you hit the crossbar and hit the post… we could have been more accurate, but I don’t feel in a position to hold something against the players,” Montella told reporters after the crucial 1-0 Paraguay defeat Friday in Santa Clara, Calif.

“Football is not logical. We have to accept the result. That is why people dream. Not every time the team that plays better wins the game. That’s the sport we’re playing. That’s football. I don’t know what more I can add to that.”

The disappointment is not merely that Turkey lost. It is how it lost.

Turkey took 62 shots across the two matches. Not one resulted in a goal. That statistic encapsulates the team’s World Cup performance better than anything else: plenty of possession, flashes of quality but ultimately no end product. It is also an unwanted piece of history, the most shots by a team without scoring at a World Cup since such records started being tracked in 1966.

Meanwhile, Mauricio Pochettino’s U.S. side followed a convincing 4-1 opening victory over Paraguay with another disciplined performance against Australia, winning 2-0 to secure its place in the round of 32 with a game to spare.

A team that entered this World Cup facing questions about consistency and identity suddenly looks organized, confident and increasingly comfortable under Pochettino’s demanding system. What was initially viewed as a difficult Group D assignment has instead become a launching pad for a United States team gaining momentum at exactly the right moment.

For Turkey, and all its devoted followers, the buoyant optimism surrounding the team’s upcoming opponent is a glimpse of what might have been.

Montella entered both matches with the same 4-2-3-1 structure, the same buildup he used at the two playoff matches, where Turkey beat opponents Romania and Kosovo with a single goal. The problem was not the formation itself. The problem was his refusal to change it when their opponents deciphered and dismantled it. Add a thick layer of criticism from Turkish fans back home after the first defeat, 2-0 to Australia. The squad then looked slow, predictable and painfully short of ideas against Paraguay.

“Turkish players, in every tournament they participate in, is heavily shaped by how they react to even the slightest setback. As a result, in a tournament that did not start well, unfortunately both the players and the coaching staff responded very poorly,” former Galatasaray press officer and journalist Bener Onar tells The Athletic from Istanbul.

For Onar, who worked with Roberto Mancini during the Italian coach’s tenure with Istanbul giants Galatasaray, foreign coaches who take jobs in Turkish football often overlook the emotional side of their roles and fail to pay sufficient attention to it.

“We have an Italian coach (in Montella) who played for the Italian national team and was one of the most important players in Roma’s history,“ Onar says. ”Yet he seemed to adopt an attitude of, ‘I have become Turkish too,’ trying to save the day with a pragmatic approach. In reality, his job was not to become Turkish. His role should have been to bring European standards and a modern sporting mentality to the players.”

Montella bet heavily that three of his players would shine — three that every opponent studied before arriving in the U.S. to ultimately freeze them on the field. Arda Guler of Real Madrid, the 21-year-old centerpiece of the attack, Inter captain Hakan Calhanoglu and Juventus winger Kenan Yildiz came in with big expectations. Yet despite Turkey dominating stretches of possession in both matches and creating a handful of viable goal positions, there was nothing to show for it.

“I was part of a Turkish team that lost 2-1 to a Brazil side featuring Rivaldo, Ronaldo, Cafu and Roberto Carlos in our opening match of the 2002 World Cup, and we were labeled traitors to the nation for it,” 2002 Turkey squad member Nihat Kahveci, who played as a forward and right winger for Besiktas, Real Sociedad and Villarreal, tells The Athletic.

“Criticism will always exist, and it cannot be used as an excuse. We should have known how to get back up. But the reality is this: we’re leaving a tournament that runs until July 19 a full month early.“

Meanwhile, Pochettino’s side enters Friday’s matchup riding a wave of momentum and increasingly looking like one of the tournament’s emerging dark horses. Two games in, the U.S. has not only advanced comfortably but has done so while growing into their coach’s chosen system, displaying the organization, confidence and intensity that many believed would take far longer to develop.

Rather than approaching Friday’s match with desperation, Pochettino’s thoughts this week will center around which players to rest, how to manage his yellow-card situation, and how to best continue surfing a wave of momentum that has the country buzzing.

The psychological contrast between the teams may be even more significant than the tactical one.

It is matched by the mood of their fans. Tickets for the game already started to drop on the secondary market once it became clear nothing was on the line. U.S. supporters might be wise saving their money for the round of 16 match in Santa Clara on July 1. Turkey followers may be best off looking in the direction of the nearest beach resort.

The hope for Turkey is a glimpse of that unfulfilled potential in LA, combined with a jolt of pride, is enough to produce a face-saving fight before flying back to Istanbul.

Compared to that sendoff, the emotional reversal has been striking. Turkey’s famed “12th man” is heartbroken, frustrated and increasingly detached from a squad that was expected to be one of the tournament’s surprise contenders.

And what was once billed as a showdown to determine the winner of Group D has instead become something else entirely: an unsatisfying curtain-closer for Turkey, an item to be ticked off without costly suspensions or injuries for the Americans, the potential end to the three-year Montella era and another opportunity for the USMNT to gather momentum before more critical challenges present themselves.