Updated MLB starting pitcher rankings: Zack Wheeler amazes; Jacob Misiorowski soars
It’s always worth a check-in. The motto here is that ERA is not predictive, but the toughest ranks last month were the ones where the ERA was sparkling and even some predictive peripherals pointed towards more success. But, in the end, due to projections and other considerations, I probably didn’t rank them as high as some wanted, at least judging by my email inbox.
So, let’s look at the players who had the biggest discrepancies between their existing ERA and their projected numbers. We’ll list their ERA from the last rankings, their projected ERA in those rankings (thanks to OOPSY at FanGraphs), and then their ERA over the last 30 days. Let’s limit this to projected ERAs over four, because Shohei Ohtani had an ERA that started with a zero, was projected to have an ERA that started with a two, was ranked very high, and that doesn’t seem in the spirit of this exercise.
Did we get them mostly right here?
Revisiting tough ranks
| Name | May ERA | ppERA | Diff | last 30 ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.81 |
4.47 |
2.66 |
5.88 |
|
|
1.62 |
4.26 |
2.64 |
7.01 |
|
|
2.25 |
4.83 |
2.58 |
2.57 |
|
|
1.88 |
4.30 |
2.42 |
4.00 |
|
|
2.18 |
4.60 |
2.41 |
4.67 |
|
|
1.70 |
4.11 |
2.41 |
4.60 |
|
|
2.12 |
4.36 |
2.24 |
3.00 |
|
|
2.42 |
4.55 |
2.14 |
3.14 |
|
|
2.63 |
4.69 |
2.06 |
4.91 |
|
|
2.32 |
4.15 |
1.84 |
7.52 |
Looks pretty good for the most part. It’s, perhaps, a win for the predictive metrics.
It’s still instructive to look at this list to realize a few things. One, it’s tough to get everything right. Two, the shape of a season matters — those that start out well and then regress often hide the regression behind their early great work. And three, projections are just part of the picture.
Justin Wrobleski showed iffy strikeout and walk rates early in this season. But then he started throwing the splitter more and altering some of his mix and location strategies. He has an above-average strikeout minus walk rate over the last 30, supporting that good ERA.
Foster Griffin was one of the highest-ranked of these pitchers, and his wide mix with command is just the kind of thing that can stymie projections. He continues to have good peripherals despite mediocre velocity and will continue to move up in the rankings this week.
Eduardo Rodríguez reminds me of a silly thing I once wrote: seasons themselves are arbitrary endpoints. They aren’t. It was hyperbole. But the kernel of truth is that sometimes a hot streak can last most of a year.
In postgame interviews, Rodríguez has admitted he hasn’t had his best stuff, and that he can’t explain all of his great results. His strikeout minus walk rate is bad, his SIERA is worse, his swinging strike rate one of the worst in the league and he had an ERA over five for the last two seasons. But maybe he’ll just have a great season this year because that’s life.
Overall, we’re going to stick to the mix. That includes OOPSY projections for ERA and strikeout rate and WHIP, Stuff+ and Location+ numbers, a look at arsenal size and how pitches fit together to get hitters of both handedness out, numbers like strikeout and walk rates, SIERA, health concerns and a little bit of intuition. The Google sheet will once again have a few extra bells and whistles for subscribers.
How did The Miz get this good, this fast?
Derek VanRiper and Eno Sarris
Good luck hunting! It’s a little harder with over 40 pitchers who would normally be ranked in the top 125 listed below the rankings as injured, but there are still some possible diamonds in the rough. Maybe one of the listed prospects will help you in the future.
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We have a new No. 1! Maybe that preseason bold prediction of a Cy Young for Jacob Misiorowski wasn’t so bold after all. He now has the best strikeout-minus-walk rate, Stuff+, SIERA and projected ERA and strikeout numbers in the game. A few others might have a better WHIP when it’s all said and done, and maybe the health risk of throwing mid-90s sliders is a little more elevated than the other pitchers atop this list, but otherwise there are no nits to pick with the Miz.
We have a new No. 1! Maybe that preseason bold prediction of a Cy Young for Jacob Misiorowski wasn’t so bold after all. He now has the best strikeout-minus-walk rate, Stuff+, SIERA and projected ERA and strikeout numbers in the game. A few others might have a better WHIP when it’s all said and done, and maybe the health risk of throwing mid-90s sliders is a little more elevated than the other pitchers atop this list, but otherwise there are no nits to pick with the Miz.
We have a new No. 1! Maybe that preseason bold prediction of a Cy Young for Jacob Misiorowski wasn’t so bold after all. He now has the best strikeout-minus-walk rate, Stuff+, SIERA and projected ERA and strikeout numbers in the game. A few others might have a better WHIP when it’s all said and done, and maybe the health risk of throwing mid-90s sliders is a little more elevated than the other pitchers atop this list, but otherwise there are no nits to pick with the Miz.
How much should we worry about Paul Skenes’ slightly dropping fastball velocity and his Stuff+ dropping below triple-digits for the first time? Some of it seems to be on purpose. Changeups and sinkers allow more balls in play, and generally have lower stuff numbers, and he’s throwing more of them. It’s also unprecedented in the pitch-tracking era to sit 99+ as a starter year after year, so maybe he’s just dialed it back on purpose to find a more sustainable level. On the other hand, his maximum fastball velocity is down as well, so he’s not just saving bullets. The on-field numbers are still excellent, with great bulk, though, so he stays near the top.
How much should we worry about Paul Skenes’ slightly dropping fastball velocity and his Stuff+ dropping below triple-digits for the first time? Some of it seems to be on purpose. Changeups and sinkers allow more balls in play, and generally have lower stuff numbers, and he’s throwing more of them. It’s also unprecedented in the pitch-tracking era to sit 99+ as a starter year after year, so maybe he’s just dialed it back on purpose to find a more sustainable level. On the other hand, his maximum fastball velocity is down as well, so he’s not just saving bullets. The on-field numbers are still excellent, with great bulk, though, so he stays near the top.
How much should we worry about Paul Skenes’ slightly dropping fastball velocity and his Stuff+ dropping below triple-digits for the first time? Some of it seems to be on purpose. Changeups and sinkers allow more balls in play, and generally have lower stuff numbers, and he’s throwing more of them. It’s also unprecedented in the pitch-tracking era to sit 99+ as a starter year after year, so maybe he’s just dialed it back on purpose to find a more sustainable level. On the other hand, his maximum fastball velocity is down as well, so he’s not just saving bullets. The on-field numbers are still excellent, with great bulk, though, so he stays near the top.
By movement and velocity, Tarik Skubal didn’t miss a beat after having some loose bodies removed from his elbow and missing roughly six weeks in recovery. His command wasn’t great in his return, but by Location+ at least, he’s had 25 worse starts in his career. The big lefty seems ready to reclaim his spot atop the ranks.
By movement and velocity, Tarik Skubal didn’t miss a beat after having some loose bodies removed from his elbow and missing roughly six weeks in recovery. His command wasn’t great in his return, but by Location+ at least, he’s had 25 worse starts in his career. The big lefty seems ready to reclaim his spot atop the ranks.
By movement and velocity, Tarik Skubal didn’t miss a beat after having some loose bodies removed from his elbow and missing roughly six weeks in recovery. His command wasn’t great in his return, but by Location+ at least, he’s had 25 worse starts in his career. The big lefty seems ready to reclaim his spot atop the ranks.
Cristopher Sánchez was a little more hittable in the last month, as his strikeout rate dropped a bit and he gave up a few homers. But there’s been no corresponding drop in stuff or velocity, and the numbers are still really good even in his worst month. The National League Cy Young race will be a wild one.
Cristopher Sánchez was a little more hittable in the last month, as his strikeout rate dropped a bit and he gave up a few homers. But there’s been no corresponding drop in stuff or velocity, and the numbers are still really good even in his worst month. The National League Cy Young race will be a wild one.
Cristopher Sánchez was a little more hittable in the last month, as his strikeout rate dropped a bit and he gave up a few homers. But there’s been no corresponding drop in stuff or velocity, and the numbers are still really good even in his worst month. The National League Cy Young race will be a wild one.
As the weather warms, batted balls fly further. But pitch velocity also peaks in July, and Chris Sale is showing us as much. He’s sitting over 97 mph on the fastball for the last three starts and seems every bit the vintage version of himself. Having the second-lowest health grade in the top 10 is basically his only ding.
As the weather warms, batted balls fly further. But pitch velocity also peaks in July, and Chris Sale is showing us as much. He’s sitting over 97 mph on the fastball for the last three starts and seems every bit the vintage version of himself. Having the second-lowest health grade in the top 10 is basically his only ding.
As the weather warms, batted balls fly further. But pitch velocity also peaks in July, and Chris Sale is showing us as much. He’s sitting over 97 mph on the fastball for the last three starts and seems every bit the vintage version of himself. Having the second-lowest health grade in the top 10 is basically his only ding.
Top three in OPS in the National League as a hitter, Shohei Ohtani is also sporting the lowest ERA among pitchers with at least 60 innings so far this season. It’s such dominance — and supported by every predictive peripheral — that it’s hard to know exactly how much to ding him for the obvious workload management his team is putting him through. He doesn’t get two starts in a week, he gets extra rest as much as possible, and he may not throw 140 innings this year. Nathan Eovaldi managed to be the fifth-best pitcher in fantasy value with 130 innings and a 1.73 ERA last year. That seems like the kind of fantasy season Ohtani is putting up on the mound.
Top three in OPS in the National League as a hitter, Shohei Ohtani is also sporting the lowest ERA among pitchers with at least 60 innings so far this season. It’s such dominance — and supported by every predictive peripheral — that it’s hard to know exactly how much to ding him for the obvious workload management his team is putting him through. He doesn’t get two starts in a week, he gets extra rest as much as possible, and he may not throw 140 innings this year. Nathan Eovaldi managed to be the fifth-best pitcher in fantasy value with 130 innings and a 1.73 ERA last year. That seems like the kind of fantasy season Ohtani is putting up on the mound.
Top three in OPS in the National League as a hitter, Shohei Ohtani is also sporting the lowest ERA among pitchers with at least 60 innings so far this season. It’s such dominance — and supported by every predictive peripheral — that it’s hard to know exactly how much to ding him for the obvious workload management his team is putting him through. He doesn’t get two starts in a week, he gets extra rest as much as possible, and he may not throw 140 innings this year. Nathan Eovaldi managed to be the fifth-best pitcher in fantasy value with 130 innings and a 1.73 ERA last year. That seems like the kind of fantasy season Ohtani is putting up on the mound.
After the slightest downturn in his fastball stuff, Jacob deGrom shrugged it off and upped the usage of his devastating low 90s slider and power changeup combo. Throwing your fastball less often than you ever have before is an old pitcher trick, and he is 37, but this isn’t your typical old starter just trying to hang on. This is a future Hall of Famer pushing for a few last tastes of glory. Enjoy it while he’s still here, dotting low and away with 92-mph sliders and making hitters mutter.
After the slightest downturn in his fastball stuff, Jacob deGrom shrugged it off and upped the usage of his devastating low 90s slider and power changeup combo. Throwing your fastball less often than you ever have before is an old pitcher trick, and he is 37, but this isn’t your typical old starter just trying to hang on. This is a future Hall of Famer pushing for a few last tastes of glory. Enjoy it while he’s still here, dotting low and away with 92-mph sliders and making hitters mutter.
After the slightest downturn in his fastball stuff, Jacob deGrom shrugged it off and upped the usage of his devastating low 90s slider and power changeup combo. Throwing your fastball less often than you ever have before is an old pitcher trick, and he is 37, but this isn’t your typical old starter just trying to hang on. This is a future Hall of Famer pushing for a few last tastes of glory. Enjoy it while he’s still here, dotting low and away with 92-mph sliders and making hitters mutter.
When it seemed like hitters had identified a weakness in the arsenal of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, he pulled the string yet again. By dialing his four-seamer back to its lowest usage levels yet, he was able to throw it a little harder, and mask it more than ever before with more sinkers and cutters. The fastball triforce works for a reason, and he has the command to make the most of it — all while setting up his nasty splitter. He may not have the stuff of other aces at the top of these rankings, but he has command, guile and pitchability in spades.
When it seemed like hitters had identified a weakness in the arsenal of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, he pulled the string yet again. By dialing his four-seamer back to its lowest usage levels yet, he was able to throw it a little harder, and mask it more than ever before with more sinkers and cutters. The fastball triforce works for a reason, and he has the command to make the most of it — all while setting up his nasty splitter. He may not have the stuff of other aces at the top of these rankings, but he has command, guile and pitchability in spades.
When it seemed like hitters had identified a weakness in the arsenal of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, he pulled the string yet again. By dialing his four-seamer back to its lowest usage levels yet, he was able to throw it a little harder, and mask it more than ever before with more sinkers and cutters. The fastball triforce works for a reason, and he has the command to make the most of it — all while setting up his nasty splitter. He may not have the stuff of other aces at the top of these rankings, but he has command, guile and pitchability in spades.
Speaking of the fastball triforce, there might not be a more effective implementation of the concept than the one Cam Schlittler shows every night. Only about 8 percent of his pitches are not a four-seamer, cutter or sinker, and yet he still sports a 28 percent strikeout rate and has improved his whiff rates even as the league gets to see him a second time. What will happen as the fastball velo inevitably wanes? Then we’ll see how much aptitude he has with the curveball and changeup. He doesn’t have the need to throw those right now.
Speaking of the fastball triforce, there might not be a more effective implementation of the concept than the one Cam Schlittler shows every night. Only about 8 percent of his pitches are not a four-seamer, cutter or sinker, and yet he still sports a 28 percent strikeout rate and has improved his whiff rates even as the league gets to see him a second time. What will happen as the fastball velo inevitably wanes? Then we’ll see how much aptitude he has with the curveball and changeup. He doesn’t have the need to throw those right now.
Speaking of the fastball triforce, there might not be a more effective implementation of the concept than the one Cam Schlittler shows every night. Only about 8 percent of his pitches are not a four-seamer, cutter or sinker, and yet he still sports a 28 percent strikeout rate and has improved his whiff rates even as the league gets to see him a second time. What will happen as the fastball velo inevitably wanes? Then we’ll see how much aptitude he has with the curveball and changeup. He doesn’t have the need to throw those right now.
You just can’t stop the elite-stuff youngsters from ascending the ranks. Baseball seems to be trending towards being a young man’s game, and Chase Burns, with his 98-mph fastball, 91-mph slider and confidence on the mound, embodies the primacy of youth right now. He might not have the best feel for his changeup, it’s a small arsenal and his command is less consistent than his stuff, but these are all worries for tomorrow. Right now, he might have the best fastball/slider combo in the game.
You just can’t stop the elite-stuff youngsters from ascending the ranks. Baseball seems to be trending towards being a young man’s game, and Chase Burns, with his 98-mph fastball, 91-mph slider and confidence on the mound, embodies the primacy of youth right now. He might not have the best feel for his changeup, it’s a small arsenal and his command is less consistent than his stuff, but these are all worries for tomorrow. Right now, he might have the best fastball/slider combo in the game.
You just can’t stop the elite-stuff youngsters from ascending the ranks. Baseball seems to be trending towards being a young man’s game, and Chase Burns, with his 98-mph fastball, 91-mph slider and confidence on the mound, embodies the primacy of youth right now. He might not have the best feel for his changeup, it’s a small arsenal and his command is less consistent than his stuff, but these are all worries for tomorrow. Right now, he might have the best fastball/slider combo in the game.
What a remarkable story. Zack Wheeler represents by far the best outcome ever for any type of Thoracic Outlet Surgery, getting back to within a half-tick of his career fastball velocity, sporting an ERA that starts with a two and looking vintage on the mound right out of the gate. On the other hand, the whiff rate is his worst since he first got to Philly, the strikeout rate is down a little, and there’s still the weight of all those past bad outcomes from that surgery that sits behind these great results. If the 97s and 98s that have been appearing occasionally in the last few starts become more regular, though, even this ranking will be too low for one of the game’s best pitchers.
What a remarkable story. Zack Wheeler represents by far the best outcome ever for any type of Thoracic Outlet Surgery, getting back to within a half-tick of his career fastball velocity, sporting an ERA that starts with a two and looking vintage on the mound right out of the gate. On the other hand, the whiff rate is his worst since he first got to Philly, the strikeout rate is down a little, and there’s still the weight of all those past bad outcomes from that surgery that sits behind these great results. If the 97s and 98s that have been appearing occasionally in the last few starts become more regular, though, even this ranking will be too low for one of the game’s best pitchers.
What a remarkable story. Zack Wheeler represents by far the best outcome ever for any type of Thoracic Outlet Surgery, getting back to within a half-tick of his career fastball velocity, sporting an ERA that starts with a two and looking vintage on the mound right out of the gate. On the other hand, the whiff rate is his worst since he first got to Philly, the strikeout rate is down a little, and there’s still the weight of all those past bad outcomes from that surgery that sits behind these great results. If the 97s and 98s that have been appearing occasionally in the last few starts become more regular, though, even this ranking will be too low for one of the game’s best pitchers.
Like Paul Skenes, Logan Gilbert is playing two changeups off each other with great command and great on-field success. Weirdly, Gilbert’s dialed down the splitter usage lately, but that was two straight games against the Orioles. That means it was probably in the scouting report, and it worked either way, with 15 strikeouts against three walks and two earned runs in 15 innings. He’s a different pitcher than when he came up, but he has also been remarkably consistent, with an ERA ranging between 3.23 and 3.43 over the last three years. This is a super high floor.
Like Paul Skenes, Logan Gilbert is playing two changeups off each other with great command and great on-field success. Weirdly, Gilbert’s dialed down the splitter usage lately, but that was two straight games against the Orioles. That means it was probably in the scouting report, and it worked either way, with 15 strikeouts against three walks and two earned runs in 15 innings. He’s a different pitcher than when he came up, but he has also been remarkably consistent, with an ERA ranging between 3.23 and 3.43 over the last three years. This is a super high floor.
Like Paul Skenes, Logan Gilbert is playing two changeups off each other with great command and great on-field success. Weirdly, Gilbert’s dialed down the splitter usage lately, but that was two straight games against the Orioles. That means it was probably in the scouting report, and it worked either way, with 15 strikeouts against three walks and two earned runs in 15 innings. He’s a different pitcher than when he came up, but he has also been remarkably consistent, with an ERA ranging between 3.23 and 3.43 over the last three years. This is a super high floor.
Dylan Cease’s new changeup, which he’s throwing harder than ever, doesn’t wow the stuff models and doesn’t feature amazing results on his own. But throwing it more, along with his curveball and sinker, has led to more late swings on his four-seam fastball. This is how a bigger mix can take pressure off of even really strong offerings like Cease’s 98-mph fastball and elite 89-mph slider. Some of his traditional problems are still hiding there under the hood, as he’s still sporting a big batting average on balls in play, and his FIP is once again lower than his ERA, but he’s pushed his peripheral dominance so far that being worse than his FIP is of no concern. In other words, he’s once again at the very top of the K:BB leaderboard, surrounded by a few names with lower ERAs, but this time it’s with an even higher strikeout rate.
Dylan Cease’s new changeup, which he’s throwing harder than ever, doesn’t wow the stuff models and doesn’t feature amazing results on his own. But throwing it more, along with his curveball and sinker, has led to more late swings on his four-seam fastball. This is how a bigger mix can take pressure off of even really strong offerings like Cease’s 98-mph fastball and elite 89-mph slider. Some of his traditional problems are still hiding there under the hood, as he’s still sporting a big batting average on balls in play, and his FIP is once again lower than his ERA, but he’s pushed his peripheral dominance so far that being worse than his FIP is of no concern. In other words, he’s once again at the very top of the K:BB leaderboard, surrounded by a few names with lower ERAs, but this time it’s with an even higher strikeout rate.
Dylan Cease’s new changeup, which he’s throwing harder than ever, doesn’t wow the stuff models and doesn’t feature amazing results on his own. But throwing it more, along with his curveball and sinker, has led to more late swings on his four-seam fastball. This is how a bigger mix can take pressure off of even really strong offerings like Cease’s 98-mph fastball and elite 89-mph slider. Some of his traditional problems are still hiding there under the hood, as he’s still sporting a big batting average on balls in play, and his FIP is once again lower than his ERA, but he’s pushed his peripheral dominance so far that being worse than his FIP is of no concern. In other words, he’s once again at the very top of the K:BB leaderboard, surrounded by a few names with lower ERAs, but this time it’s with an even higher strikeout rate.
He’s back! Hunter Brown didn’t miss a beat, coming back with seven strikeouts against one run and three walks in 5 2/3 innings in his first game off the injured list. The velocities on his pitches were unchanged, his pitch mix was about the same as it was earlier in the season and his stuff numbers looked good. Using the curveball more this year has led to more walks, maybe, but also more strikeouts, and the track record here suggests he’ll reduce the walks and once again be one of the best pitchers in the game.
He’s back! Hunter Brown didn’t miss a beat, coming back with seven strikeouts against one run and three walks in 5 2/3 innings in his first game off the injured list. The velocities on his pitches were unchanged, his pitch mix was about the same as it was earlier in the season and his stuff numbers looked good. Using the curveball more this year has led to more walks, maybe, but also more strikeouts, and the track record here suggests he’ll reduce the walks and once again be one of the best pitchers in the game.
He’s back! Hunter Brown didn’t miss a beat, coming back with seven strikeouts against one run and three walks in 5 2/3 innings in his first game off the injured list. The velocities on his pitches were unchanged, his pitch mix was about the same as it was earlier in the season and his stuff numbers looked good. Using the curveball more this year has led to more walks, maybe, but also more strikeouts, and the track record here suggests he’ll reduce the walks and once again be one of the best pitchers in the game.
Drew Rasmussen has a career ERA of 2.85, and is bested only by Shohei Ohtani in that stat since 2021 began. Is that surprising? The stuff darling hasn’t backed it up with many innings — 540 2/3 in his career, with a career high of 150 last year — but when he’s been on the mound, he’s been excellent. The knock has been that he doesn’t go deep into games, and he did only put up eight quality starts in 31 tries last year, so that’s fair. But this year he’s already equaled that number, he’s on pace for the most innings of his career and he could easily pass his high of 11 wins, as well. It might be weird how many fastballs he throws, but there’s a growing list of excellent pitchers with the same approach — think of Zack Wheeler, Cam Schlittler and Hunter Brown for some local comps. It’s worked for long enough to believe in it.
Drew Rasmussen has a career ERA of 2.85, and is bested only by Shohei Ohtani in that stat since 2021 began. Is that surprising? The stuff darling hasn’t backed it up with many innings — 540 2/3 in his career, with a career high of 150 last year — but when he’s been on the mound, he’s been excellent. The knock has been that he doesn’t go deep into games, and he did only put up eight quality starts in 31 tries last year, so that’s fair. But this year he’s already equaled that number, he’s on pace for the most innings of his career and he could easily pass his high of 11 wins, as well. It might be weird how many fastballs he throws, but there’s a growing list of excellent pitchers with the same approach — think of Zack Wheeler, Cam Schlittler and Hunter Brown for some local comps. It’s worked for long enough to believe in it.
Drew Rasmussen has a career ERA of 2.85, and is bested only by Shohei Ohtani in that stat since 2021 began. Is that surprising? The stuff darling hasn’t backed it up with many innings — 540 2/3 in his career, with a career high of 150 last year — but when he’s been on the mound, he’s been excellent. The knock has been that he doesn’t go deep into games, and he did only put up eight quality starts in 31 tries last year, so that’s fair. But this year he’s already equaled that number, he’s on pace for the most innings of his career and he could easily pass his high of 11 wins, as well. It might be weird how many fastballs he throws, but there’s a growing list of excellent pitchers with the same approach — think of Zack Wheeler, Cam Schlittler and Hunter Brown for some local comps. It’s worked for long enough to believe in it.
Hey, here’s yet another big fastball user. Bryan Woo throws his sinker and four-seamer more than two-thirds of the time. It’s not the biggest mix, as he only throws three pitches more than 10 percent of the time against lefties or righties. But it comes with great command. His walk rate is third-best in baseball among qualified pitchers, which helps him make the most of what’s a slightly lower strikeout rate than some of the names around him on these ranks. A couple of recent stumbles came with no change in stuff, velocity and command, and so they seem like something we can just shrug away as the ebb and flow of a regular season.
Hey, here’s yet another big fastball user. Bryan Woo throws his sinker and four-seamer more than two-thirds of the time. It’s not the biggest mix, as he only throws three pitches more than 10 percent of the time against lefties or righties. But it comes with great command. His walk rate is third-best in baseball among qualified pitchers, which helps him make the most of what’s a slightly lower strikeout rate than some of the names around him on these ranks. A couple of recent stumbles came with no change in stuff, velocity and command, and so they seem like something we can just shrug away as the ebb and flow of a regular season.
Hey, here’s yet another big fastball user. Bryan Woo throws his sinker and four-seamer more than two-thirds of the time. It’s not the biggest mix, as he only throws three pitches more than 10 percent of the time against lefties or righties. But it comes with great command. His walk rate is third-best in baseball among qualified pitchers, which helps him make the most of what’s a slightly lower strikeout rate than some of the names around him on these ranks. A couple of recent stumbles came with no change in stuff, velocity and command, and so they seem like something we can just shrug away as the ebb and flow of a regular season.
With a new knuckle-curveball giving him the best breaking ball of his career, Joe Ryan has dialed back the splitter usage to great success. It may look about the same as other seasons, but with this new weapon, his career-best numbers against righties might just be believable. There’s some risk that, as the weather warms, his old homer rate comes back online, but there’s also the potential that this new mix means it won’t, in which case he’d have the best season of his career.
With a new knuckle-curveball giving him the best breaking ball of his career, Joe Ryan has dialed back the splitter usage to great success. It may look about the same as other seasons, but with this new weapon, his career-best numbers against righties might just be believable. There’s some risk that, as the weather warms, his old homer rate comes back online, but there’s also the potential that this new mix means it won’t, in which case he’d have the best season of his career.
With a new knuckle-curveball giving him the best breaking ball of his career, Joe Ryan has dialed back the splitter usage to great success. It may look about the same as other seasons, but with this new weapon, his career-best numbers against righties might just be believable. There’s some risk that, as the weather warms, his old homer rate comes back online, but there’s also the potential that this new mix means it won’t, in which case he’d have the best season of his career.
First, Nolan McLean came up and showed us the highest-spin curveball in the game, inspired us with the movement and dominated the game despite some question marks against lefties. Then, he struggled, giving up 13 runs in two starts and opening up a near-100 point difference in slugging percentage between lefties and righties. He lost command of his breaking ball and couldn’t throw it as much, and his inconsistent fastball command was exposed. Those might be ongoing problems because of how much movement he gets, or maybe he shores those up as the former two-way player gets deeper into his pitching-only career. The truth remains that this is excellent stuff, and a wide mix, and no apparent problem is insurmountable given those two facts.
First, Nolan McLean came up and showed us the highest-spin curveball in the game, inspired us with the movement and dominated the game despite some question marks against lefties. Then, he struggled, giving up 13 runs in two starts and opening up a near-100 point difference in slugging percentage between lefties and righties. He lost command of his breaking ball and couldn’t throw it as much, and his inconsistent fastball command was exposed. Those might be ongoing problems because of how much movement he gets, or maybe he shores those up as the former two-way player gets deeper into his pitching-only career. The truth remains that this is excellent stuff, and a wide mix, and no apparent problem is insurmountable given those two facts.
First, Nolan McLean came up and showed us the highest-spin curveball in the game, inspired us with the movement and dominated the game despite some question marks against lefties. Then, he struggled, giving up 13 runs in two starts and opening up a near-100 point difference in slugging percentage between lefties and righties. He lost command of his breaking ball and couldn’t throw it as much, and his inconsistent fastball command was exposed. Those might be ongoing problems because of how much movement he gets, or maybe he shores those up as the former two-way player gets deeper into his pitching-only career. The truth remains that this is excellent stuff, and a wide mix, and no apparent problem is insurmountable given those two facts.
It’s all still there for our preseason darling Braxton Ashcraft. He’s still sitting 97 for two fastballs, with an 85+-mph curveball that ranks among the best in the game by Stuff+. The slider and splitter are not amazing by the model but they give him a wider arsenal and have contributed to his success. The only question is how many innings he can put together this year. His career high was 118 just last year, and he’s already thrown over 84 so far this year. Our innings projection here is 20 innings lower than most others, and it may still be a little heavy given his extensive injury history.
It’s all still there for our preseason darling Braxton Ashcraft. He’s still sitting 97 for two fastballs, with an 85+-mph curveball that ranks among the best in the game by Stuff+. The slider and splitter are not amazing by the model but they give him a wider arsenal and have contributed to his success. The only question is how many innings he can put together this year. His career high was 118 just last year, and he’s already thrown over 84 so far this year. Our innings projection here is 20 innings lower than most others, and it may still be a little heavy given his extensive injury history.
It’s all still there for our preseason darling Braxton Ashcraft. He’s still sitting 97 for two fastballs, with an 85+-mph curveball that ranks among the best in the game by Stuff+. The slider and splitter are not amazing by the model but they give him a wider arsenal and have contributed to his success. The only question is how many innings he can put together this year. His career high was 118 just last year, and he’s already thrown over 84 so far this year. Our innings projection here is 20 innings lower than most others, and it may still be a little heavy given his extensive injury history.
Since coming off the injured list, Logan Webb has rededicated himself to throwing all five of his pitches regularly. It’s worked. His strikeout rate is back to above average over that timeframe and he’s given up two earned runs in four starts, including one at Coors Field. Maybe he doesn’t have the ceiling of some of the pitchers below him, but with over 40 pitchers removed from this ranking due to injuries, he represents such a solid option that it makes sense to value the floor and move him into the top 25.
Since coming off the injured list, Logan Webb has rededicated himself to throwing all five of his pitches regularly. It’s worked. His strikeout rate is back to above average over that timeframe and he’s given up two earned runs in four starts, including one at Coors Field. Maybe he doesn’t have the ceiling of some of the pitchers below him, but with over 40 pitchers removed from this ranking due to injuries, he represents such a solid option that it makes sense to value the floor and move him into the top 25.
Since coming off the injured list, Logan Webb has rededicated himself to throwing all five of his pitches regularly. It’s worked. His strikeout rate is back to above average over that timeframe and he’s given up two earned runs in four starts, including one at Coors Field. Maybe he doesn’t have the ceiling of some of the pitchers below him, but with over 40 pitchers removed from this ranking due to injuries, he represents such a solid option that it makes sense to value the floor and move him into the top 25.
Last year, the cutter was a revelation for Gavin Williams, as it took pressure off his fastball/breaking ball combo and gave him another option against lefties. This year, adding in more sinkers has helped him because he commands the pitch well. Williams has also shored up the difference between his curveball and sinker, tightening their movement patterns and ensuring their unique looks don’t blend into one another. This is a former first-rounder rounding into form.
Last year, the cutter was a revelation for Gavin Williams, as it took pressure off his fastball/breaking ball combo and gave him another option against lefties. This year, adding in more sinkers has helped him because he commands the pitch well. Williams has also shored up the difference between his curveball and sinker, tightening their movement patterns and ensuring their unique looks don’t blend into one another. This is a former first-rounder rounding into form.
Last year, the cutter was a revelation for Gavin Williams, as it took pressure off his fastball/breaking ball combo and gave him another option against lefties. This year, adding in more sinkers has helped him because he commands the pitch well. Williams has also shored up the difference between his curveball and sinker, tightening their movement patterns and ensuring their unique looks don’t blend into one another. This is a former first-rounder rounding into form.
Elite command raises Kevin Gausman’s floor to make him worth this ranking despite worse projections than some of those around him. It kept his ERA to a useable 4.11 number in a six-game stretch earlier this season when his strikeout rate dipped to a paltry 15 percent. It helps him make the most of a two-pitch mix even as his fastball dips under league-average velocity for a right-handed starter. As much as he’s known for his splitter, it’s that command that might just be Gausman’s best feature.
Elite command raises Kevin Gausman’s floor to make him worth this ranking despite worse projections than some of those around him. It kept his ERA to a useable 4.11 number in a six-game stretch earlier this season when his strikeout rate dipped to a paltry 15 percent. It helps him make the most of a two-pitch mix even as his fastball dips under league-average velocity for a right-handed starter. As much as he’s known for his splitter, it’s that command that might just be Gausman’s best feature.
Elite command raises Kevin Gausman’s floor to make him worth this ranking despite worse projections than some of those around him. It kept his ERA to a useable 4.11 number in a six-game stretch earlier this season when his strikeout rate dipped to a paltry 15 percent. It helps him make the most of a two-pitch mix even as his fastball dips under league-average velocity for a right-handed starter. As much as he’s known for his splitter, it’s that command that might just be Gausman’s best feature.
Gerrit Cole is not all the way back. Sure the velocity is there. But he’s lost an inch of ride on the fastball. The curveball’s not quite the same shape. The slider has less drop this year. He hasn’t really thrown the cutter at all. His Stuff+ is down on all three pitches. Normally these sorts of things are predictive and believable even early in a return process. But Cole is an established vet. His last start aside, his velocity was trending in the right direction. He looks like he’s experimenting with different pitch mixes from game to game, and has even made comments about this season being a blank canvas. He hasn’t consistently shown his old strikeout rate, but it’s come in bursts. Here’s thinking that the vet still has it in him to paint a masterpiece, even in his first year back from major surgery.
Gerrit Cole is not all the way back. Sure the velocity is there. But he’s lost an inch of ride on the fastball. The curveball’s not quite the same shape. The slider has less drop this year. He hasn’t really thrown the cutter at all. His Stuff+ is down on all three pitches. Normally these sorts of things are predictive and believable even early in a return process. But Cole is an established vet. His last start aside, his velocity was trending in the right direction. He looks like he’s experimenting with different pitch mixes from game to game, and has even made comments about this season being a blank canvas. He hasn’t consistently shown his old strikeout rate, but it’s come in bursts. Here’s thinking that the vet still has it in him to paint a masterpiece, even in his first year back from major surgery.
Gerrit Cole is not all the way back. Sure the velocity is there. But he’s lost an inch of ride on the fastball. The curveball’s not quite the same shape. The slider has less drop this year. He hasn’t really thrown the cutter at all. His Stuff+ is down on all three pitches. Normally these sorts of things are predictive and believable even early in a return process. But Cole is an established vet. His last start aside, his velocity was trending in the right direction. He looks like he’s experimenting with different pitch mixes from game to game, and has even made comments about this season being a blank canvas. He hasn’t consistently shown his old strikeout rate, but it’s come in bursts. Here’s thinking that the vet still has it in him to paint a masterpiece, even in his first year back from major surgery.
George Kirby has great command and better projections than some of those ahead of him on the rankings. His slider is a good enough stuff pitch to help get him double-digit strikeout games. All of his expected ERA numbers are lower than what he’s putting up right now. So why did he drop in the ranks? One of his favorite whiff pitches is the high fastball. That pitch is under intense scrutiny right now as the Automated Ball Strike system enforcement has functionally shrunk the zone, especially in that area. It’s the kind of thing that would explain his big drop in strikeout rate and would remove some of his upside, and the kind of thing that a projection system wouldn’t necessarily model.
George Kirby has great command and better projections than some of those ahead of him on the rankings. His slider is a good enough stuff pitch to help get him double-digit strikeout games. All of his expected ERA numbers are lower than what he’s putting up right now. So why did he drop in the ranks? One of his favorite whiff pitches is the high fastball. That pitch is under intense scrutiny right now as the Automated Ball Strike system enforcement has functionally shrunk the zone, especially in that area. It’s the kind of thing that would explain his big drop in strikeout rate and would remove some of his upside, and the kind of thing that a projection system wouldn’t necessarily model.
George Kirby has great command and better projections than some of those ahead of him on the rankings. His slider is a good enough stuff pitch to help get him double-digit strikeout games. All of his expected ERA numbers are lower than what he’s putting up right now. So why did he drop in the ranks? One of his favorite whiff pitches is the high fastball. That pitch is under intense scrutiny right now as the Automated Ball Strike system enforcement has functionally shrunk the zone, especially in that area. It’s the kind of thing that would explain his big drop in strikeout rate and would remove some of his upside, and the kind of thing that a projection system wouldn’t necessarily model.
Injuries love Shane McClanahan. The lefty missed all of 2024 and 2025 with a litany of injuries, and that absolutely changes his volume projections and therefore his ranking. But so far this season, his velocity has only trended in a positive direction, his slider command has mostly improved, and the changeup is probably the best he’s had in his career. If he doesn’t get felled again by injury, it would be fair to expect him to improve a little as he settles back in to a regular routine.
Injuries love Shane McClanahan. The lefty missed all of 2024 and 2025 with a litany of injuries, and that absolutely changes his volume projections and therefore his ranking. But so far this season, his velocity has only trended in a positive direction, his slider command has mostly improved, and the changeup is probably the best he’s had in his career. If he doesn’t get felled again by injury, it would be fair to expect him to improve a little as he settles back in to a regular routine.
Injuries love Shane McClanahan. The lefty missed all of 2024 and 2025 with a litany of injuries, and that absolutely changes his volume projections and therefore his ranking. But so far this season, his velocity has only trended in a positive direction, his slider command has mostly improved, and the changeup is probably the best he’s had in his career. If he doesn’t get felled again by injury, it would be fair to expect him to improve a little as he settles back in to a regular routine.
Injured starters
| Pitcher | Injury | Return? | Return Rk |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Shoulder |
mid July |
5 |
|
|
Elbow |
mid June |
5 |
|
|
Back |
early July |
15 |
|
|
Elbow |
late July |
20 |
|
|
Elbow Surgery |
late June |
25 |
|
|
Elbow Surgery |
early Aug. |
25 |
|
|
Elbow |
mid July |
25 |
|
|
Forearm |
late July |
30 |
|
|
Shoulder Inf. |
mid June |
35 |
|
|
Hamstring |
late July |
40 |
|
|
Tommy John |
early Sep. |
45 |
|
|
Elbow |
early Aug. |
45 |
|
|
Back |
mid July |
45 |
|
|
Tommy John |
late July |
50 |
|
|
Elbow |
mid June |
50 |
|
|
Hip |
late June |
55 |
|
|
Tommy John |
mid July |
55 |
|
|
Leg |
early Aug. |
55 |
|
|
Elbow |
mid July |
60 |
|
|
Elbow |
mid June |
60 |
|
|
Knee |
mid July |
60 |
|
|
Shin |
late June |
70 |
|
|
Back |
early July |
75 |
|
|
Ankle |
mid July |
75 |
|
|
Shoulder |
late June |
80 |
|
|
Hamsting |
late July |
80 |
|
|
Shoulder |
mid July |
90 |
|
|
Hamstring |
late June |
90 |
|
|
Knee |
late June |
95 |
|
|
Flexor Strain |
late July |
100 |
|
|
Flexor Strain |
early July |
100 |
|
|
Shoulder |
late July |
100 |
|
|
Hip |
late June |
105 |
|
|
Quad |
late June |
105 |
|
|
Biceps |
late June |
110 |
|
|
Shoulder |
early July |
110 |
|
|
Shoulder |
early July |
110 |
|
|
Shoulder |
early Aug. |
120 |
|
|
Back |
mid July |
120 |
|
|
Shoulder Strain |
mid July |
125 |