World Cup predictions: USMNT vs Australia, Brazil vs Haiti and rest of matchday 9
Welcome to The Athletic’s daily World Cup Predictions.
This article gives you the lowdown on all today’s games, but with the bonus of some friendly competition…
Throughout the tournament, we will have two Athletic writers (Andy Jones or Elias Burke — with help from our experts from each of the 48 countries) pitting our soccer knowledge against a different Athletic subscriber each day and “Algo”, the shiny new algorithm from The Athletic, which is making its computerised debut during the 2026 World Cup.
Oh, and a dog called Stanley and a six-year-old called Wilfred (who some of you may remember from last season’s Premier League predictions).
Our guest subscriber today is Jayden from Canada, who supports Canada and Barcelona. Good luck!
If you would like to apply to be our guest subscriber for a day during this tournament,
What happened on Matchday 8?
Having had the opportunity to watch every team at the World Cup once, this “predictions” lark should be getting easier — but matchday eight threw up a four-game slate full of surprises and goals.
The Czech Republic and South Africa started the action, looking to post their first points after losing their opening matches. Calling on the height difference and the savviness of an experienced Czech side, we tipped them to get the better of South Africa, who looked particularly poor in the tournament’s curtain-raiser against Mexico. And after Michal Sadilek put the Czech Republic in front inside six minutes, we looked to be on our way to a crucial point in our mission to prove we know more about football than a robot.
The Czech Republic looked set to see out the win without many issues, but a lapse in concentration late in the second half allowed South Africa midfielder Teboho Mokoena to pull level from the penalty spot. Credit to reader Greg and to six-year-old Wilfred for hitting the mark, and for proving that tournament experience doesn’t mean all that much after all.
Switzerland and Bosnia and Herzegovina met in the second match of the day in a game that was in the running for the worst at the tournament so far until it burst into life late in the second half. It was a turgid and cagey affair right up until 20-year-old midfielder Johan Manzambi, a player many consider to be the future of Switzerland’s national team, put Murat Yakin’s side 1-0 up in the 74th minute. Fast forward 20 minutes or so, and Granit Xhaka converted from the penalty spot to seal a 4-1 win for Switzerland.
Wilfred was spot on here again, with Algo and us (the experts) getting on the board for the day.
Canada received unanimous backing from us, but few would have anticipated such a dominant scoreline and performance from the co-hosts. Jesse Marsch’s side wasted no time against unfancied Qatar, with striker Cyle Larin, who was left out of the starting line-up against Bosnia and Herzegovina, netting his second goal of the tournament.
It was one-way traffic from there, after attacking talisman Jonathan David scored his first, second, and then third late in second-half stoppage time to leave with the hat-trick ball as Canada crushed the 2022 hosts 6-0 in Vancouver. Smiles all around at World Cup Predictions HQ, though we’re wishing Canada midfielder Ismael Kone all the best in his recovery after suffering a leg break in the second half.
The final game of the day was a much cagier affair, with Mexico narrowly beating South Korea 1-0 to book a knockout spot. Forecasting a tight game, the experts and Wilfred lose out to the Algo, Greg, and Stanley the dog, who must be feeling much more paws-itive after a bit of a ruff day. I’ll see myself out.
Heading into matchday nine, the algo (17) leads the experts (15) by two correct predictions, with Wilfred and the readers (14) hot on our tails.
How do the predictions work?
It’s pretty simple: we will give you some background on each game, players to watch and facts on the two teams. Then we will predict the outcome: either a WIN for one of the two teams, or a DRAW.
We will maintain a leaderboard of how everyone gets on with their predictions (ranked by the percentage they get correct) but we’ll also keep a record of “streaks” — the number of predictions everyone gets right in a row. These streaks also form a crucial part of The Athletic’s interactive Soccer Pick’Ems feature, allowing you to make your own picks every round as well.
So come along and get involved, and check back each day to see how we are getting on in the leaderboard, and probably more importantly, whether you, the subscribers, or Stanley or Wilf are beating us.
Or, worst of all, whether ‘Algo’ can prove data and statistics know all when it comes to predicting.
Good luck, and enjoy!
Why not try The Athletic’s World Cup Tracker, where you can find a forecast projecting the likelihood that each team will progress through each stage of the tournament, along with a bracket projecting the most likely round of 32 matchups, current standings, and a bunch of other neat forecasts and scenarios.
Predictions for Matchday 9
United States vs Australia, Group D, kick-off 3pm ET, 8pm BST
Where to watch: FOX (U.S.) BBC (UK)
Streak Risk Factor: 4/5. Australia were one of the bigger surprises from the opening fixtures. Despite the United States getting off to the perfect start themselves, this looks set to be a more competitive game than many may have thought.
Watch Rating: 5/5. The USMNT’s performance has been one of the standouts so far and if they can repeat those levels then it will be another entertaining game. Australia showed they can withstand pressure and offer a significant counter-punch.
The Athletic Soccer Experts say: “Buoyed by a loud home crowd, Mauricio Pochettino’s side could not have started the tournament better. From the first minute, they overpowered a poor Paraguay side with Christian Pulisic and Folarin Balogun irresistible in attack. The former was substituted at half-time because of a left calf injury and is in a race to be fit for this game.
“If the U.S can replicate the intensity and continue to attack with dynamism, they can cause Australia more problems than Turkey. And they possess an in-form No 9 in Balogun.
“One of our USMNT reporters, Henry Bushnell, says: ‘There is, naturally and obviously, a confidence around this team now after the best performance in U.S. men’s World Cup history. But I don’t think it’s overconfidence. There’s awareness that Australia will present a tougher test. I think the game will be tighter than last week’s, but the U.S. will gut out another win, 2-1.”
Folarin Balogun could be crucial for USMNT (Richard Heathcote/Getty Images)
“Australia only had 28.3 per cent possession in their victory over Turkey, demonstrating that they have grit and determination to scrap their way to a result. They were organised and compact but then picked their moments, scoring two counter-attacking goals, the best of which was scored by danger man Nestory Irankunda. This tournament has been defined by outstanding goalkeeping performances and Pat Beach produced one of them in the opening game.
“This is an opportunity for both sides to secure passage into the knockout stages and put them in control of Group D. “
The Athletic Experts: UNITED STATES WIN
Guest subscriber Jayden: UNITED STATES WIN
Six-year-old Wilfred: DRAW
Stanley the Dog: AUSTRALIA WIN
Algo: UNITED STATES WIN
Scotland vs Morocco, Group C, kick-off 6pm ET, 11pm BST
Where to watch: FOX (U.S.) ITV (UK)
Streak Risk Factor: 3/5. Scotland picked up a first World Cup victory for 36 years, but face a step up against Morocco.
Watch Rating: 3/5. Morocco were enjoyable to watch against Brazil, as they combined intensity with attacking football. Scotland will need to stifle that, and try to get their own match-winners involved.
The Athletic Soccer Experts say: “Morocco arguably deserved more than a point from their opening game. They were the better side for long periods.
“Ayyoub Bouaddi starred on the world stage and Morocco have the potential to go deep into the tournament as they did four years ago.
“Scotland are still basking in the glory of their first victory at a World Cup since 1990 after John McGinn’s deflected effort sealed a 1-0 win over Haiti. It gives them an excellent chance of reaching the knockout stages. Another positive result would reinforce that.
“As good as Scotland’s victory will have felt, it was not particularly convincing. Haiti threatened throughout and had a great chance to equalise in the closing stages. Ben Gannon-Doak was a bright spot in a disjointed performance that left questions as to whether Scotland need to tweak the 4-4-2 system deployed by head coach Steve Clarke which proved ineffective against one of the lower-ranked teams in the tournament.”
Ben Gannon-Doak impressed against Haiti (Mattia Ozbot/Getty Images)
The Athletic Experts: MOROCCO WIN
Guest subscriber Jayden: MOROCCO WIN
Six-year-old Wilfred: MOROCCO WIN
Stanley the Dog: DRAW
Algo: MOROCCO WIN
Brazil vs Haiti, Group C, kick-off 8:30pm ET, 1:30am BST
Where to watch: FOX (U.S.) ITV (UK)
Streak Risk Factor: 2/5. Haiti showed they carry a threat but even though Brazil were far from their best against Morocco, they should have more than enough attacking quality to overpower their opponents.
Watch Rating: 3/5. This might be a bit more of a contest than many would have predicted before the tournament began. When Vinicius Junior is on his game, he is worth the admission fee by himself.
The Athletic Soccer Experts say: “Brazil recovered well from their sluggish start against Morocco to emerge with a hard-fought point.
“As he did so often under Carlo Ancelotti at Real Madrid, Vinicius Jr produced the moment of magic. Yet he will need more help from his team-mates as the tournament progresses. Igor Thiago, Raphinha and Casemiro, who was substituted at half-time, all struggled.
“The good news for Ancelotti is he has a deep squad which should help him solve the imbalanced nature of the first half performance. There were some green shoots in the second half.
(Mauro Pimentel/AFP via Getty Images)
“Haiti were inches away from snatching a point from Scotland as Frantzdy Pierrot headed wide after 84 minutes. Despite being ranked 83rd in the world, they are capable of competing at this level and surprise results by fellow underdogs should add encouragement.
“Haiti can’t afford to bring the wastefulness in the final third that plagued them in their opener. They can counter-attack at speed, and should use Morocco’s goal against Brazil as inspiration to pose problems.
“Our Brazil reporter Jack Lang says: ‘There has been a minor inquest in Brazil after the 1-1 draw with Morocco, with many questioning the side’s direction of travel. They should, though, still have enough about them to beat Haiti in Philadelphia.’”
The Athletic Experts: BRAZIL WIN
Guest subscriber Jayden: BRAZIL WIN
Six-year-old Wilfred: BRAZIL WIN
Stanley the Dog: BRAZIL WIN
Algo: BRAZIL WIN
Paraguay vs Turkey, Group D, kick-off 11pm ET 4am BST
Where to watch: FS1 (U.S.) ITV (UK)
Streak Risk Factor: 3/5. This feels like a must-win for both sides. Turkey have a stronger and deeper squad but it is unclear which team will bounce back better from their opening game defeat. If there is a fear of losing from either team it could lead to them cancelling each other out.
Watch Rating: 3/5. Both teams need victory. Risks will have to be taken at some stage.
The Athletic Soccer Experts say: “Turkey did a lot of things right against Australia but the lack of a reliable goalscorer was evident. They will also be hoping they don’t find themselves on the wrong end of another excellent goalkeeping performance following Pat Beach’s display against them.
“Surprisingly, Juventus’ Kenan Yildiz was named on the bench before being introduced at half-time. As one of Turkey’s young, creative stars alongside Arda Guler, it is difficult to see how he can be left out of the starting XI again.
“As Paraguay found out, starting a World Cup campaign against a host nation is never easy. They were blown away by the USMNT and looked shocked when Damian Bobadilla diverted the ball into his own net after seven minutes.
“They need to be better in every area. Their defensive fragility was exposed and they need their creative players like Miguel Almiron, Julio Enciso and Diego Gomez to offer more.”
The Athletic Expert: TURKEY WIN
Guest subscriber Jayden: TURKEY WIN
Six-year-old Wilfred: DRAW
Stanley the Dog: PARAGUAY WIN
Algo: TURKEY WIN