World Cup predictions: Spain vs Cape Verde, Belgium vs Egypt and rest of matchday 5
Welcome to The Athletic’s daily World Cup Predictions.
This article gives you the lowdown on all today’s games, but with the bonus of some friendly competition…
Throughout the tournament, we will have two Athletic writers (Andy Jones or Elias Burke — with help from our experts from each of the 48 countries) pitting our soccer knowledge against a different Athletic subscriber each day and “Algo”, the shiny new algorithm from The Athletic, which is making its computerised debut during the 2026 World Cup.
Oh, and a dog called Stanley and a six-year-old called Wilfred (who some of you may remember from last season’s Premier League predictions).
Our guest subscriber today is Jacob from the U.S. who supports the USMNT and Brighton. Good luck, Jacob!
If you would like to apply to be our guest subscriber for a day during this tournament,
What happened on Matchday 4?
Matchday four’s first fixture between Germany and Curacao began with roles reversed from the previous day as there would be no surprise result. The Athletic experts, Algo, Wilfred and the subscribers all predicted a victory for Julian Nagelsmann’s side, while Stanley’s optimistic ‘strategy’ of picking the underdogs was beginning to look naive.
Felix Nmecha gave Germany an early lead, but the expectation that it would be a procession from there was halted when Livano Comenencia netted an equaliser for the World Cup debutants. The dream of causing one of the biggest shocks in the competition’s history lasted 17 minutes, as Nico Schlotterbeck headed home from a corner and Kai Havertz converted a penalty to give Germany a two-goal lead before half-time. By full time, it was a 7-1 rout.
Kai Havertz scored in Germany’s 7-1 win (Alexander Hassenstein/Getty Images)
The game between the Netherlands and Japan split the opinion of the predictors, with Algo and Wilfred picking the Dutch, while subscriber Jacob and Stanley went for Japan. This Athletic expert went for a draw and definitely didn’t do a kneeslide when Daichi Kamada headed in an 88th-minute equaliser without knowing much about it.
The first half was largely forgettable, but the game came alive in a 13-minute period. Goals from Virgil van Dijk and Crysencio Summerville for the Netherlands came either side of Keito Nakamura’s equaliser.
These hydration breaks are rubbish, though, aren’t they? And not for the first time in the tournament, it took the flow and momentum out of a game that was end-to-end and building towards an entertaining finish. Japan did find something eventually to earn themselves a hard-fought point, with the Netherlands dropping deeper after the drinks stoppage.
Amad Diallo’s 90th-minute winner for Ivory Coast broke Ecuador supporters’ and the Athletic expert’s hearts as they snatched all three points in the final stages. It was music to the ears, though, of Algo and Stanley, who had predicted an Ivory Coast win.
This was an excellent, enjoyable contest with both teams playing with a freedom that led to attacking, end-to-end football and Yan Diomande starring. Ecuador hit the bar twice in the opening half an hour, while Alan Franco blocked heroically from Nicolas Pepe at the other end. Even the hydration break couldn’t break the relentless pace of the game.
The second half never quite found the same rhythm as the first. It was Ivory Coast’s turn to hit the bar, and they were well on top for the opening 15 minutes of the second period before it became an even contest again. A goalless draw looked nailed on to everyone except Wilfried Singo, who stormed down the wing and picked out Diallo to sweep home from just inside the area.
The panel of predictors were then unanimous in believing Sweden would kick off their campaign with a victory and they did so emphatically with a 5-1 win over Tunisia.
We mentioned in the preview that Sweden had solved their goalscoring issues and Yasin Ayari got Graham Potter’s side off to the perfect start with a sweetly-struck half-volley.
Alexander Isak looked like Alexander Isak, scoring once and assisting twice, while Viktor Gyokeres was the perfect complement, getting himself on the scoresheet to make it 3-1 after Tunisia’s Omar Rekik had reduced the deficit just before half-time. Matthias Svanberg scored with his first touch after coming on as a substitute before Ayari scored another belter deep into stoppage time.
The table remains tight after a better day for The Athletic Experts and Algo, who both predicted three scores correctly. It took Algo to joint-top alongside the subscribers who continue to look strong as we head into matchday five.
How do the predictions work?
It’s pretty simple: we will give you some background on each game, players to watch and facts on the two teams. Then we will predict the outcome: either a WIN for one of the two teams, or a DRAW.
We will maintain a leaderboard of how everyone gets on with their predictions (ranked by the percentage they get correct) but we’ll also keep a record of “streaks” — the number of predictions everyone gets right in a row. These streaks also form a crucial part of The Athletic’s interactive Soccer Pick’Ems feature, allowing you to make your own picks every round as well.
So come along and get involved, and check back each day to see how we are getting on in the leaderboard, and probably more importantly, whether you, the subscribers, or Stanley or Wilf are beating us.
Or, worst of all, whether ‘Algo’ can prove data and statistics know all when it comes to predicting.
Good luck, and enjoy!
Why not try The Athletic’s World Cup Tracker, where you can find a forecast projecting the likelihood that each team will progress through each stage of the tournament, along with a bracket projecting the most likely round of 32 matchups, current standings, and a bunch of other neat forecasts and scenarios.
Predictions for Matchday 5
Spain vs Cape Verde, Group H, kick-off 12pm ET, 5pm BST
Where to watch: Fox (U.S.), BBC (U.K)
Streak Risk Factor: 1/5. Spain are ranked second in the world by FIFA, while Cape Verde are down in 67th. Enough said, really.
Watch Rating: 3/5. It’s unclear yet if teenage superstar Lamine Yamal will be fit enough to play a role, but if he does, you won’t want to miss his World Cup bow.
The Athletic Soccer Experts say: “Spain enter this World Cup with huge expectations, led by Yamal, who has ambitions to establish himself as the best player in the world over the summer. Luis De La Fuente’s side should benefit from their possession-heavy style, which wears the opposition down before punishing gaps in the defence caused by tired legs, though this game will be played under a roof in Atlanta, minimising the impact of the searing heat.
“Cape Verde should not feel completely hopeless, however, as there is plenty of precedent for giant killings in the opening days of a World Cup. Famously, Saudi Arabia beat Argentina in their first match in 2022, before Argentina went on to win the whole thing. It also happened in 2010, when Spain lost 1-0 to Switzerland to open their tournament, before picking up their first and only star.
“Still, it would rank as one of the World Cup’s greatest shocks if the island off the coast of West Africa with a population of just over 525,000 (about the same as Kansas City) achieved a result against one of the favourites. If they do, striker Dailon Rocha Livramento and winger Jamiro Monteiro, as well as the defensive performance of their lives, are likely to be a big reason why.”
The Athletic Soccer Experts: SPAIN WIN
Guest subscriber Jacob: SPAIN WIN
Six-year-old Wilfred: SPAIN WIN
Stanley the Dog: SPAIN WIN
Algo: SPAIN WIN
Belgium vs Egypt, Group G, kick-off 3pm ET, 8pm BST
Where to watch: Fox (U.S.), BBC (U.K)
Streak Risk Factor: 3/5. Belgium should win, but Egypt have a couple of elite attackers who are primed to deliver.
Watch Rating: 3/5. Several world-class players are on show, many of whom are likely playing in their last World Cup. Every minute spent watching icons like Mohamed Salah and Kevin De Bruyne as their careers wind down should be cherished.
Egypt’s Mohamed Salah (Abdel Majid BZIOUAT / AFP via Getty Images)
The Athletic Soccer Experts say: “Belgium are not the force they once were, with just three of the 2018 World Cup semi-final line-up in Rudi Garcia’s squad this time around. It’s probably the last dance for De Bruyne, now 34, with persistent niggling injuries sapping him of fitness and conditioning. It’s a similar story for Romelu Lukaku, 33, by far Belgium’s greatest goalscorer with 90 goals in 126 caps, who plays his club football with De Bruyne at Napoli. With new-gen star Charles De Ketelaere impressing as a false nine, Lukaku may not even start.
“Egypt are not at their highest ebb, either. After possibly the best individual season of his career in 2024-25, Salah struggled for Liverpool last term, registering just seven goals and seven assists in the Premier League and will move on from Anfield as one of the club’s greatest players. Omar Marmoush had appeared to be his ready-made successor, but he, too, hasn’t had a great season for Manchester City. Still, Egypt have never advanced to the knockout stages in World Cup history, but with 33-year-old Salah ageing out, this may be their best chance for a while.”
The Athletic Soccer Experts: BELGIUM WIN
Guest subscriber Jacob: BELGIUM WIN
Six-year-old Wilfred: DRAW
Stanley the Dog: BELGIUM WIN
Algo: BELGIUM WIN
Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay, Group H, kick-off 6pm ET, 11pm BST
Where to watch: Fox (U.S.), BBC (U.K)
Streak Risk Factor: 2/5. It’s not the safest bet in the world, but Uruguay are heavy favourites.
Watch Rating: 2/5. Uruguay midfielder Federico Valverde is always a delight to watch when he is in full flight, but this is probably not one many are circling as a “must-watch”. Unless you’re a Leeds United fan, that is.
The Athletic Soccer Experts say: “It hasn’t been plain sailing for Marcelo Bielsa in recent months, as conflicting opinions over Uruguay’s style and inconsistent results have left the 70-year-old head coach open to criticism. Bielsa, who enjoys hero-like status at Leeds after winning promotion to the Premier League following a 16-year absence, initially had success implementing his high-octane, high-pressing style with the two-time World Cup winners.
“Uruguay recorded back-to-back wins over Brazil and Argentina in World Cup qualifiers before finishing third at the 2024 Copa America, but recent results have been underwhelming, not least the 5-1 hammering at the hands of the USMNT last November. And after moving from Liverpool to Saudi Arabian side Al Hilal, Darwin Nunez has fallen out of form and favour under Bielsa, leaving fans questioning where their goals will come from.
Uruguay’s Darwin Nunez plays his club football in Saudi (Dante FERNANDEZ / AFP via Getty Images)
“Nunez may be of use from a scouting perspective, as he has faced many of the Saudi Arabia squad in the Saudi Pro League. The heavy investment from the Saudi Public Investment Fund in football was partly to boost the national team’s level, allowing their players to improve alongside top European and South American stars, but they’re yet to see anything like a significant return on that investment. A 0-0 draw with Senegal on the eve of the tournament should boost confidence that they have the defensive fortitude to keep top opposition at bay, but they lack a prolific forward for iconic playmaker Salem Al-Dawsari to create for.”
The Athletic Soccer Experts: URUGUAY WIN
Guest subscriber Jacob: URUGUAY WIN
Six-year-old Wilfred: URUGUAY WIN
Stanley the Dog: URUGUAY WIN
Algo: URUGUAY WIN
Iran vs New Zealand, Group G, kick-off 9pm ET, 2am+1 BST
Where to watch: Fox (U.S.), BBC (U.K)
Streak Risk Factor: 5/5. We make Iran marginal favourites, but with little to no conviction.
Watch Rating: 2/5. Not much in the way of elite talent on show, but Los Angeles’ significant Persian population will make themselves heard at SoFi Stadium. Plus, a potential World Cup debut for social media sensation Tim Payne.
The Athletic Soccer Experts say: “Both sides breezed through Asian qualifying, with New Zealand closely followed by Iran to become the second and third teams to book their place at the World Cup over a year ago. But the lead-up to the tournament has been far from straightforward for Amir Ghalenoei’s side, with a war against the tournament co-hosts, the United States, and anti-government protests back home. With more than half the squad based in Iran, where club football has been suspended since February, and a last-minute change of base camp from the U.S. to Mexico, the coach is navigating uncharted territory.
“Both teams have a standout striker, Mehdi Taremi for Iran and Chris Wood for New Zealand, and will hope to make the most of set-piece opportunities. Tough to call.”
The Athletic Soccer Experts: DRAW
Guest subscriber Jacob: IRAN WIN
Six-year-old Wilfred: DRAW
Stanley the Dog: IRAN WIN
Algo: IRAN WIN